Spread trading in Meta Trader - page 200
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
Hi all. I have been getting messages in my personal contacts asking why I haven't posted profitable entries for a long time. Tomorrow we are expecting a seasonal entry in platinum-gold: BUY PLJ2 - SELL GCJ2 = 2^1, - seasonal MRCI chart: ... ...
If we decompose by averaging years 1-2-3-5-10, we get a more clear figure (chart built and kindly provided by Valeri58):
Enter tomorrow afternoon and hold (as appropriate) until March 1. Or work as short term entries on spread line pullbacks! Good Luck to all!
Closed the positions of this spread yesterday due to the end of seasonality. Originally, PL-GC=2^1 spread was a bit (a couple of days) "naughty in flat" and did not want to grow. But in the morning of February 28 this line went confidently up, and yesterday there was a sharp profit jump! Congratulations to all who took advantage of the recommendation!
=============
In the last days of February a well-known seasonal MRCI site (http://www.mrci.com/web/index.php) recommends a currency entry: buying EURAUD(spread BUY 6E - SELL 6A =1^1) . The entry statistics are shown in the table:
It is assumed that until March 16, the average profit of this buy is about $1700 per 1 lot (about +170 ticks)! Seems pretty good, out of the last 13 years - only one such entry has been a loss!
Here's a chart of multi-year seasonal trends from MRSI (5 and 13 year average charts):
I am somewhat skeptical of currency seasonal trends, so if I will enter, it will be by very small amounts of short-term buying on pullbacks!
The current situation on the EURAUD currency pair is on the chart:
(Good luck to all!)
It is not for nothing that I am sceptical about seasonal currency entries! This time - buy on February 28th went down almost immediately! Then it went up, but failed to reach the calculated target (TakeProfit) by a few pips! Today I am closing the position - almost at breakeven...
Now I'm flipping through the download pages (March file from MRCI),..... and found there a currency entry recommendation! The cross pair AUDJPY (currency spread 6AM1 - 6JM1=1^1).
According to the long-term seasonal trends(1996-2010 ) this pair annually started moving up from March 17-20 and kept moving up until the first (5-6) days of April!
Somehow I missed this graph this year. And in vain... If I had used this recommendation and bought this cross from March 18 till April 5, I would have made a good profit! Here is the chart of AUDJPY for the current year 2011. (Let's keep this entry in mind for the next year, 2012!)
============
So, from tomorrow on tf=H1-H4 you can look for a technical opportunity for medium- or short-term seasonal buying (on the pullbacks) of the currency spread 6AM2-6JM2=1:1, or currency pair AUDJPY.
I posted a more detailed graph of the pair's multi-year seasonal trends on the previous page in a post: leonid553 28.02.2012 10:43
Confirm on the prospects of this spread (currency pair) for the specified period in terms of buying
As well as.
Confirm on the prospects of this spread (currency pair) for the specified period in terms of buying
As well as.
Extremely disagree with USDJPY - the thing is that I recently wrote a 1in1 indicator, and what I noticed is that in overbought periods the trend does not work. In other words: all of the past year's charts show that the rise was after a fall, in this case there was no fall! - which is an indicator of overbought conditions, and makes me doubt that we will see any further growth.) IMHO
Well, you don't have to buy long term right away. You can work short-term on pullbacks only to buy till April 5!
If you are interested - Valery-58 has built and posted the AUDJPY multi-year seasonal trend graph - "by year" from March 22 to April 5 for the last 10 years at - http://www.procapital.ru/showpost.php?p=1211363&postcount=408.
The charts are very interesting. And here is a screenshot of my post today on this pair:
I am now buying silver-gold spread in small amounts:
buy SIK2 - sell GCJ2 = 1^2 (XAG-XAU = 1^2)
with the expectation of subsequent closing positions - at the point of convergence of price lines. Or when the spread line reaches the upper limit of the channel:
This time SIK2 - GCJ2 was very boring! Spread was flat all day long, but it didn't decide on the direction. Lines do not want to show!
I am closing positions now with tiny profit, almost breakeven, despite the fact that price lines have not converged yet.
Well, you don't have to buy long term right away. It is possible to work short-term on pullbacks only to buy until April 5!
Now is probably a good time to buy the pair on a seasonal basis! Wait for the convergence of price lines (the triangle will turn to the right) and buy AUDJPY.
Close - at the point of convergence (crossing) of price lines or when the spread line reaches the opposite (upper) border of the channel:
In your screenshots, the equity charts almost completely coincide with rate charts (audjpy, sik2).
Why not try to open a hedging position but overlay a channel on the chart of the working instrument with placing real stops at some distance from the channel's border? Or open only on the work instrument?
When trading the spread, the spread chart must not repeat the form of one of the instruments included in its creation? Otherwise what is the point? We can simply perform a technical analysis of this instrument.
I think the subject of statistical arbitrage is covered most thoroughly in Recycle2. But it is not so easy either. Before selecting instruments, you are looking for a fundamental reason for the existence of correlation between these instruments. And in Recycle2, you first search for instruments with correlations and only then justify this correlation.