Spread trading in Meta Trader - page 184
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Let's say this system is profitable, why should it be made light of? To make it unprofitable? Or is it PR for something else, some programme or website?
Bauleken, - this "system" is no longer a secret! VERY LONG TIME AGO! The whole civilized world (especially individual traders) has been working "paired-season-arbitrage" for the last decades!
And the whole civilized world trades not currencies at all. They trade commodities, indices and securities (seasonally and arbitrage). They trade profitably. And only on the expanses of our former empire these homegrown DCs are still selling us mostly forex-trading. With all that this implies.
I have some experience (3-4 years, 2006-2009) trading currencies. So, my conclusion about loss-making forex trading is not speculative at all! I seriously read books of DeMark, DiNapoli, Murphy, Connors, R. Jones, the Wave Theory by T. Joseph and many other books. (even wrote an advisor for automatic trading: https://www.mql5.com/ru/articles/1485 )
But the recommendations of the classics do not help much in currency trading. (By the way, 98% of examples in their "classic" books and textbooks are based on commodity and stock markets! But it is clearly not enough. Even with a good technical (and fundamental also ...) knowledge forex trading is still a roulette, roulette! And the theory of probability "unequivocally" indicates that in this the only winner will always be the casino, but not the players.
Actually, it's not hard to prove. It's enough to write an Expert Advisor for the automated trading according to any classic methods to make sure - the loss of the deposit occurs quickly enough in the tester of the mt4 platform!
Of course, there are rare exceptions. But they, as we know, only confirm the rule! For some reason, it is believed that successful Forex traders account for 4-5 percent of the total number. I don't know why it is considered that way. I think that successful individual forex traders are much less! Less than one percent (and that's putting it mildly)!
Trading on the commodity-funds markets is another matter! Here there are techniques and methods that allow you to calculate with a very high probability the possibility of obtaining and even the timing and size of the expected profit! Actually, it is easy to see here, in this thread! Even the process of such trading is much more interesting than forex trading and is quite optimistic - confidence in one's abilities and forces is acquired quickly. The chance of the final result is out of the question! The results are often profitable and logical. I have enough examples, including short-term trading...
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What about advertising - is it present here? Neither sites nor DoC are advertised here, especially since there are at least half a dozen well known DoCs providing access to futures CFD-trading. And the English-language seasonal sites I mentioned do not need advertising....
...
Bauleken, - this "system" is not a secret for a long time! The whole civilized world (especially individual traders) has been working "paired-seasonally-arbitrarily" for the last decades!
And as for advertising - is it present here? Neither sites nor DoC are advertised here, the more so that nowadays at least half a dozen well-known DoCs provide access to futures CFD-trading. And the English-language seasonal sites I mentioned do not need advertising....
If the system is no secret and is used by all, then where are the losers? Who is the gainer? At the expense of the holy spirit?
Advertisements are seen here all the time. You write a lot of posts and take a very long time. That's a lot of time. No mentally healthy person would waste that much time. So it's PR for something. But it's hidden PR, hidden advertising. That's why you have to guess what it is. :) Maybe this is an ad for a brokerage company that allows you to trade these instruments?
> "paired-season-arbitrage".
Reminds me of "trendy and fashionable and young". :)
Exne... Is it suitable for spread trading?
I'm watching the MARKET REVIEW on the demo. I think that it is partially suitable. For example, all commodities (oil-gas-oil- fuel oil) are present there, - two contracts each (near-far).
Few soft tools - only one coffee contract (no sugar, cotton, wood). No cattle at all. Silver-gold is represented only by "spots" - and this is a big loss on asc-bid. I don't see any grains at all. Bonds as well. I do not see many instruments of the banking sector, this brokerage company seems to specialize here in the banking area. But I do not know anything about banks.
However, the discussion of DC in our forum is forbidden, so I will not give recommendations on these questions here! If I don't, Bauleken will say here advertising is forbidden!
If the system is no secret and is used by all, where are the losers? At whose expense are the gainers? At the expense of the holy spirit?
Advertisements are seen here all the time. You write a lot of posts and take a very long time. That's a lot of time. No mentally healthy person would throw away that much time. )
Two or three times a week is a lot and a long time?
Well, then I guess I'm not one of the mentally healthy. By your criteria of mental health.
So, in order not to "throw beads...", I'm not going to convince you any more. I'd better go and register at the dispensary....
Two or three times a week is a lot and a long time?
Well, then I guess I'm not one of the mentally healthy people. By your criteria of mental health.
So I'm not gonna convince you any more. I'd better get registered at the dispensary....
Thank you.
Now I'm flipping through the download pages (March file from MSRI), which I posted yesterday on page 182 (see the last post there) and I found a currency entry recommendation! AUDJPY cross (currency spread 6AM1 - 6JM1=1^1).
According to the long-term seasonal trends(1996-2010 ) this pair annually started moving up from March 17-20 and kept moving up until the first (5-6) days of April!
Somehow I missed this graph this year. And in vain... If I had used this recommendation and bought this cross from March 18 till April 5, I would have made a good profit! Here is the chart of AUDJPY for the current year 2011. (Let's keep this entry in mind for next year, 2012!) -
Currencies are much worse at seasonality. Much worse than commodities and even worse than commodity spreads. Except that the Canadian 6C "follows" the seasonal movements of oil. Yes, the Dollar Index is by and large seasonal. I only know of 2-3 medium-term reliable currency seasonal entries during the year. No more than that...
Seasonal correlations of currency markets
Here, by the way - another address with seasonal recommendations (Orion's website) -
http://www.orionfutures.com/clients/index.html
... It's enough to write an Expert Advisor for automatic trading using any classic methodology to make sure - when you run it in the mt4 platform tester - you lose your deposit fast enough!
....