Intuition testing - page 15
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I won't say anything, except that it's nerdy blather, which is of no interest to me, as it has little or nothing to do with applied trading.
Ordinary rubbish of nerds: the more scientific terms are used in floods, the better.
>> Thank you. Honesty is the best policy.It now seems to me that pricing is a generalised Poisson process, which is non-stationary in intensity over short intervals, but over large intervals - where we estimate statistics - its average is quite smooth. Hence, the distribution graph should be a curve (L^k)/k!*exp(-L), where L is the intensity.
P.S. You can stop me if you get carried away...
Actually the Laplace distribution looks somewhat different. And it looks a lot like a special case of the gamma distribution, which is called the Erlang distribution. But there's still a difference, so it's not Erlang either.
The reason I got stuck is that I already tried this kind of distribution 2 years ago, but got convinced that it reproduced the real distribution not much better than the normal one - i.e. poorly. As a result I gave it up. Mathemat is definitely right: this distribution does not reproduce tails very well.Which means it definitely can't be used for risk estimation.
A striking example is the Brownian motion, which has already been the subject of so many pages in the next thread.
Which thread are we talking about?
Oh thank you, Yuri, I already felt that soon I will be sunk with unsinkable arguments like "I don't see it in the picture" :)
Totally agree with the top starter. Intuition can be trained!
I used to do this regularly with cards. I took three cards of any kind, stirred them up and had to draw a particular card or guess the one I pulled.
After some time of regular practice (2-3) weeks I got this result, - 16 times in a row I guessed{pulled out correctly. Note the -3 cards, i.e. 33.3333% chance of getting it right each time. And the probability that I would draw it next time in a row decreased with each card I guessed.
Took three cards of any kind, stirred and had to draw a particular card or guess the one you drew.
Can you elaborate on that?
I can't open the intuition test. what opens xlsm?
Plug in your intuition
>> Can you elaborate on that?
What more details do you need? In 2-3 weeks of intensive training, a pack of cards can be so worn down and memorised that you can "guess" the value of a card by its shirt even in total darkness by touch.
What more details do you need? In 2-3 weeks of intensive practice, a pack of cards can be so worn down and memorised that you can "guess" the value of a card from the shirt, even in total darkness by touch.
That's your opinion. I, on the other hand, am curious. :)
I can't open the intuition test. what opens xlsm?
This is a 2007 xlsm file. Look at the beginning of the thread, there's one for 2003. And a little further is a video on how to use it. I have to agree with Reshetov that maps are best not used for training. We have discussed them. If you want to continue with the physical trainer, it may be a pot of peas. :)