The Bank of England has bought a number (molillion-billion, etc.) of pounds from the Swiss bank for francs. How will the exchange rate change, why? - page 7
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GENERAL CONCLUSION:
no one should be trusted, including the banks, the news, me and everyone here )))
Who wants to disprove it, join the discussion
Yeah... sure... looking... >> triple divergence and still going up without stopping.
coincidence ))))
GENERAL CONCLUSION:
no one should be trusted, including the banks, the news, me and everyone here )))
))))))))
then how is the direction chosen - at random? bulls bears and vice versa?
Well now I want to tell you what the Primitive Technical View is.
It is the view of the Urupin intellectual, the Connecticut Yankee, the view of a simple kid from a working class family. Who has a hard time reading smart books - falls asleep, is distrustful and doesn't like complicated decisions.
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What kind of indicators? I don't know any indicators! And I do not want to know them - they are incomprehensible.
I do not trust anyone, all books were written for the sake of money, not to seek the truth.
I will not believe it until I get a feel for it.
Who makes the market? - Rich, fat, dumb men, and university professors as consultants. And not to advise, but not to be ashamed in front of people.
This guy, before placing conversion orders, asks some "egghead" about where the stochastics are and where the MACD histogram turns.
He is solving it in some other way. And we must guess how. Or at least what it looks at when making a decision. And he always looks at the money and only the money. The prices, that is. What prices were high around here, what prices were low. And that's what he's guided by. Where do you want to buy/sell, bro? Right here right now? Better? And the best we've had around here is this. All right? Well, give or take a tram stop. OK? We'll do it - as soon as the prices are there. In the meantime, we'll make sure they're there. We'll try.
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Only the price, without any conversions, can serve as a guide for the market maker to place conversion orders. Anything else is for the very clever, and therefore for the poor.
That is - the market extremums - is the only reliable guide. Reliable and sufficient.
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What are market extremes? It's a configuration. You open your hand, bend your fingers in the middle phalanx, and then straighten the middle finger. If the index finger looks up, it is a market extremum (the maximum of the middle candle is higher than the maximums of two neighboring candles). And if the hand is turned so that it looks down, it is the minimum.
And if one considers not three middle fingers but all five, it is already a "fractal" and it is already complicated and does not suit us common guys.
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On which chart should we look for extrema (= Demark's pivot points)?
On a daily chart and not less! Because the intraday market maker does not look at intraday charts - does he have nothing better to do?
Conversion orders are not placed every day. Therefore, not every reference point is interesting, but the one, that should not be lower than the extremum of the week.
For example, look at the EUR chart:
The 27.05 candlestick gives the anchor point and the high of the week - we are interested.
The candlestick 13.05 gives the reference point (minimum), but it is not the minimum of the week - we are not interested in it.
The candlestick 5.05 gives the minimum of the week, but the low is not a reference point - we are not interested in it.
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I am tired to write from the habit, I will continue tomorrow.
The bottom line is one sentence:
Only extrema not lower than a weekly (!) that are simultaneously anchor points can be a reliable market reference point.
I will continue the presentation of the primitive.
So, if we have an anchor point and it is also an extremum of at least one week - then in this area the MM can easily place conversion orders.
Orders that is. Which ones?
For exporters/importers - sell around the high and buy around the low.
For speculators - BAY behind the high and SELL behind the low. For speculators, it's stop-loss orders and breakout orders for the romantics who like new trends. But I think they are mostly stop-loss orders. Because romantic trend-followers on low-trend forex have an increased lethality.
It is only later, when the level is strong enough, a lot of people join the market, if they believe in the movement, or if there is some panic. By the way, the famous fall of the yen in the autumn of 1998 - it was due to panic and it all started with making stop-losses, and continued - with massive "margin-calls", which actually panicked the people.
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So near the extremum there is "either rain or snow or no rain. And till the extremum there is nothing to catch - we sit and smoke bamboo.
And if the rate comes to the extremum - and there are no orders there?
Then there will be a turbulence and this is the worst case scenario because everybody will get hurt - both those who were counting on a pullback and romantics-trend setters.
If there are orders from exporters/importers, the rate will reverse. And this is the best option. Because the main thing is to have stability. In Forex, stability is when there is a channel. Track the reversal and enjoy it.
If speculative orders are worthwhile, there will be a jump. They'll pass the extremum and then... If there are a lot of stops, they will jump far away, if there are few of them, the bluebird catchers may start working there.
The main thing here is not to let oneself be fooled. Do not get excited. If the trend is right - we will have time. If it's not true, we don't need it.
So we wait, as it's written in the primers, for the level to close. And if it is closed in a reliable way - not in five points, but for good reason. Then, after the first pullback from the new extremum that was reached - but tomorrow, not on the day of breakout - the orders can be placed to continue the move.
Plus the fact that a broken down support becomes an resistance and vice versa is not written for nothing. How many times have I seen.
I mean, not always, but sometimes some very fond clients tell very fond Market Makers - "Guys, I like everything, but roll back to the original, eh! Otherwise I won't take it!" And they, naturally, try to roll it back.
But it has to happen quickly - within a day or two. And if they roll back later, they become suspicious - they probably entice them.
It means that, in a trend situation, one should wait for the breakdown and then either place an order for the further move or, if such a favorable moment happens, trace the reversal from the old broken level.
If the rate reaches the extremum, the reversal is POSSIBLE. But this reversal should be tracked, to open a position more reliably.
How to do it? Yes, using any method: by a candlestick pattern (to be more respectable and reliable - not on five-minute, but on hourly charts), by any oscillator, or even by eye on ticks!
But as you understand I cannot learn so many reversal formations, and I get confused with indicators. Therefore - order on rebound behind the opposite edge of touch candle and wait.
If a 1-hour candlestick turns out to be completely FOR the level, it has been broken. We stop to track the reversal and do nothing till the end of the day.
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If the level is exceeded within a day, including within a day it is broken (all candlestick is behind the appropriate EXTREME), but it is not broken at least by a point during the day, then the next day this level is moved by the extremum that was yesterday.
For example. The level was 1.2315, the price reached 1.2355, but the day closed at 1.2314. The next day the extremum 1.2355 is "ours" and we shift the level to 1.2350.
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Newancic. The market is the same, but the information systems are different. And extrema may differ by a few points in different good information systems. And in bad information systems, by a lot. Well, our system is good, but it may not coincide with Reuters, for example. For Reuters has indicative quotations and HB-FK has only real ones. And the "tails" do not stretch that far.
It means that one should ALREADY consider it a touch when the rate has come to an extremum before reaching five points. Not to bite your elbows later.
Of course, it can be larger, but I'm afraid of voluntarism and agree on five points.
For example. The resistance on the Euro is 1.1932 (the maximum of 27.05 and the year). It should be considered as a touch if the rate will be 1.1927. And it is necessary to follow the possible reversal.
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If the reversal happens, the position is opened, then it may be done according to the above scheme below the banner or however you want. But since the scale is larger than the daily one, the position may be held for several days at least till the middle of the channel. And you may close together with London.
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If a breakout has occurred, you should wait for the daily closing. If the closing is 30 points farther than the previous level - it is a claim for a trend. Because 30 points is the level of the market noise, it is not serious.
If the breakthrough has taken place, we have two possibilities.
1) To trace the reversal from the broken level - I already told about it. Track it using the same method.
1) Not to trace the reversal, but simply place an order. Taking into account those five points of possible understatement, bid-ask and with a stop on the execution of 40 points - no more. But, of course, it is more reliable to keep track of it.
The pullback should occur within a day or two, and then we forget about this level forever. There will be new ones.
But if some level stretches through the entire chart and the price crosses it back and forth, many times, and everybody looks at it - phew! The price has crossed the level - what is there to see!
2) Place an order to break through a new extremum that has been reached. You can place the stop by the opposite end of the touch candle or just volatile - 50 points, or 60 points for the franc - it is the most volatile one.
Then we proceed according to the same scheme, but if it really is a trend, we should not be in a hurry to close.
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That's the general view. We will analyze the details as we go.
But if you need anything, please ask.
Analyst Club
http://forum.fxclub.org/showthread.php?t=15268
What's the conclusion? It's not about the course, it's about the truth.
I'm sorry then.
It's not our way.
I need to feed. And you must be fed.
Foreign exchange market: 22.11.2009 21:02:00
Instrument Bid Trend Ask
GBPCHF 1.6775 ↓ 1.6783
Foreign exchange market: 22.11.2009 21:02:00
Instrument Bid Trend Ask
GBPCHF 1.6775 ↓ 1.6783
Uncle see ECM
the catch If one currency is bought and the other sold, the first goes up, the second goes down.
let's say we read the Dow Jones and see a planned trade. what should we do?
you should not do anything. as i looked around the site, only scalpers are itchy and worried as investors. sores would have envied such insider information. you will get more deals.
You can change your orders, what is there to be jealous of?
you can change your orders? why be jealous?
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