50/50 chance leave on hold or cut I think. Either way - there's going to be volotility. After journalist "rates whisperer" Terry McCrann spoke last week his prediction markets have priced in 0.15 rate cut..
![Terry McCrann Exclusive Terry McCrann Exclusive](https://c.mql5.com/36/6/terry-mccrann-exclusive.jpg)
Terry McCrann Exclusive
- Australian News Channel Pty Ltd
- www.skynews.com.au
Sky News Business speaks exclusively with 'Rates Whisperer' Terry McCrann ahead of Tuesday's RBA Meeting.
T0BY:
Agreed, 50/50 - but going to be a fun ride :) Thanks for the link mate
50/50 chance leave on hold or cut I think. Either way - there's going to be volotility. After journalist "rates whisperer" Terry McCrann spoke last week his prediction markets have priced in 0.15 rate cut..
Well that was a nice ride :) Looks like there was definitely a cut factored in but still some lovely profit. Didn't hurt that it was rejected at the weekly pivot this morning either.
A lot of economists with egg on their face today....
A lot of economists with egg on their face today....
Filter:
Well that was a nice ride :) Looks like there was definitely a cut factored in but still some lovely profit. Didn't hurt that it was rejected at the weekly pivot this morning either.
A lot of economists with egg on their face today....
Very interesting analysis, thank you.
Well that was a nice ride :) Looks like there was definitely a cut factored in but still some lovely profit. Didn't hurt that it was rejected at the weekly pivot this morning either.
A lot of economists with egg on their face today....
angevoyageur:
Very interesting analysis, thank you.
No probs, I get lucky sometimes :) Very interesting analysis, thank you.
Hope others managed to get in on the 150+ short before the USD tanked and spoiled the party
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At 0330 GMT tomorrow (Tuesday 3rd Feb 2015) The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce the official Cash Rate at it's first board meeting for the year. Whilst other major central banks have slashed their rates over the previous few years, some even to negative rates, the RBA has maintained the official rate at 2.5% since September 2013.
The Aussie has been in freefall since early September 2014 and has recently managed to find good support around the 0.7700 mark, with resistance around the 0.7825 to 0.7900 level. A review of major brokers shows around 60% of retail traders are currently LONG on the AUDUSD. As such, a solid break below the support at .77 may trigger a wave of stop loss orders.
Adding fuel to the fire, only 6 major economists are predicting a rate cut at tomorrows RBA board meeting, while 21 are betting on rates remaining on hold for the time being. A cut by the RBA tomorrow, earlier than the market expects, is likely to weigh heavily on the AUD. A break below the 0.77 level could see downside targets from 0.75 to as low as 0.71.
Some factors pointing to a RBA rate cut tomorrow:
Canada has just cut its cash rate to 0.75 per cent. Denmark has just cut its rate to minus 0.5 per cent. The United States is keeping its rate at 0.25 per cent. An Australian cash rate maintained at 2.5 per cent in the face of these moves would give the dollar support the bank would prefer it not to have.
Sources:
http://www.efxnews.com/story/27766/rba-cut-rates-week-sell-audusd-barclays
http://www.marketpulse.com/20150201/audusd-enjoys-support-0-77/
http://www.watoday.com.au/business/weak-economy-set-to-spur-reserve-bank-cash-rate-cut-on-tuesday-20150201-132rz2.html