EURUSD - Trends, Forecasts and Implications (Part 1) - page 707
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Fibo comment:
Posted 10:11 02.12.2009
Hello!
The rise in the US stock market supported the euro in yesterday afternoon trading. The outcome was a test of 1.5117 against the dollar. As you can see, fundamentals are following the parallel course with technical analysis.
The oil was also rising, but not as well as the DJ index, which made a new high from the previous week, at 10492. Gold rallied during the day and broke through 1200, which was mentioned a lot. And today, as usual, it opened with a gap up at $10.10. And technically, the gold might continue rising, but the DJI seems to be on its second peak, which might turn up the whole optimism of the players, for instance on the full moon tonight, or in the coming days. This is not just about the index, but about the whole market, as many instruments are traded around their key levels.
Many players attribute the interest in risky assets to the interest rate hike by the Bank of Australia, positive data from China, Europe and the USA. Admittedly, if the dollar started to strengthen, it would be linked to something else))) Dubai World has agreed to restructure 26bn of its 59bn debt.
Despite the tensions already created in the markets, President Plosser of the Philadelphia Fed contributed by literally calling for interest rates to rise. "Anticipatory and precautionary policies are needed if the Fed is to achieve its goal of low and stable inflation"; "The Fed must roll back unconventional monetary stimulus programmes in advance." In short, Mr Plosser called for liquidity constraints. In doing so, an increase in the key interest rate is seen as the main way out.
So, the number of technical and fundamental coincidences continues to increase. Hence the importance of the current moment. Recall that this moment is determined by the risks of either a further decline of the USD or by the risk of a strengthening of the USD.
On the Euro/Dollar, the short and medium term outlook is pointing to an extended rally, which might not be limited to 1.5154. And on the weekly chart, the support of the rising long-term trend is not broken, though the price is able to correct to it.
Pound/Dollar on the same timeframes indicates the continuation of the decline in the new corridor that was formed. The price is now near the upper boundary. It may go down to 1.6270.
Dollar/yen. Here the short term is showing an increase, but the mid-term has not yet shown any clear signs. Therefore, an inertial rise to 88.00 is quite feasible.
Today's events are as follows:
At 11:20 Moscow time the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member S. Dale will speak.
At 12:30 Moscow time, the UK will publish the Construction Sector Business Activity Index for November. Forecast: growth.
At 13:00 Moscow time, the Eurozone is expected to publish its PPI for October. Forecast: 0.1% m/m, previous value: -0.4% m/m.
Have a nice day!
FIBO Group analyst Mikael Nersesov
DJ news
http://www.fxpro.ru/newsfxpro2.php?id=c23eebfd3546dcd6f2260107aa3f43dd
Ahem :) That's up to you, that's not how I trade.
How do you trade, though?
At least in general terms, give me a hint.
I'd like to try another profitable strategy...
How do you trade, though?
At least in general terms, give me a hint.
I'd like to try another profitable strategy...
Market model.
we just leave shadows and that's it...... what's going on????