The perfect entrance. What does it look like? - page 7
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I don't agree with that. You can also enter a Buy when the price is declining, if you are sure that it will go up afterwards. There is a strategy.
Ok, I'll try to explain it on my fingers. You know with 100% certainty that price will soon reverse and buy on the downtrend at 1.2000. The price goes down another 40 pips to 1.1960, after which it really turns around and starts a bullish move. You close your long position at 1.2100 with a profit of 100 pips. Were you profitable when you entered the long? Yes, it did, in the amount of 100 pips. Was it a perfect entry? No, it was not ideal, because you could buy at 1.1960 for a profit of 140 pips and you would have been relaxed, because the price went your way. Do you have to look for such a perfect move? No, you don't, because at first it is impossible, because a 100% guarantee comes only in hindsight, and secondly, this method won't help you collect the entire movement, because you need to calculate the exit point, also with an accuracy of one pip, which is impossible in principle.
It is these criteria that are NOT my criteria. I say exactly the opposite of what you attribute to me.
I don't attribute it to you personally, I'm just noting that everyone has their own criteria. You have the risk:
Goose wrote >>
My answer is carrying the least risk. Because, as you rightly point out, the design (profit) is not known to be realized. But we can assess the risk quite objectively, in pips, if we have a TS, of course.
The risk in a trade depends on your actions and you can exit at the first tick against your position at any entry. Any such entry would be ideal?))
Goose wrote >>
Generally speaking, I've never heard the concept of "ideal" interpreted solely in hindsight. "Ideal" does not depend on history. It is timeless :)
No, the ideal is the "best" according to your criteria among many choices. You can find the ideal girl for you only by choosing among many))))
In the case of trading and comparing entries - everything depends on the chosen criteria of ideality.
We can assess risk quite objectively, in pips, if we have a TS, of course.
We cannot assess the risk objectively. Don't kid yourself.
The risk we can:
0. To evaluate quantitatively - simply because you can evaluate in points.
1. assess subjectively - in terms of the rules of OUR TS. This does not mean that if we ran the risk limit, then the market situation has changed - it just means that in most cases in this situation, our TS has generated a false-entry signal....
2) Limit - by taking the size of stops for the size of the deposit in accordance with the rules of our TS
If you claim to be able to assess risk objectively, then in terms of a correct problem statement, the market trend should ALWAYS reverse after the stop is knocked out.
Or have you never encountered a situation where the price, having knocked out a stop, continues to move in the direction of a once open position ? In such a situation the risk has been assessed, but how objective ?
And ideality is a 'quality criterion' (there is such a term in optimisation theory). In this case, optimisation is a branch of applied mathematics, not the process of using a tester.
Good luck.
Ok, I will try to explain it on figures. You know with 100% certainty that the price will soon reverse and buy on the downtrend at 1.2000. The price goes down another 40 pips to 1.1960, after which it really turns around and starts a bullish move. You close your long position at 1.2100 with a profit of 100 pips. Were you profitable when you entered the long? Yes, it did, in the amount of 100 pips. Was it a perfect entry? No, it was not ideal, because you could buy at 1.1960 for a profit of 140 pips and you would have been relaxed, because the price went your way. Do you have to look for such a perfect move? No, you don't, because first of all it is impossible, because a 100% guarantee comes only in hindsight, and secondly, this method won't help you to collect the whole movement, because you have to calculate the exit point, also with an accuracy of one pip.
I think it would be more appropriate to compare it with the criterion you mentioned (IMHO - this is the most successful definition of the ideal entry for the TS - I use it myself - it not only minimizes risk, but also can be calculated with an acceptable error, unlike the same signals of Zig-Zag).
It should be compared to the same buy entry (from the same level), but after the trend reversal. In this case the second entry can be considered close to ideal (not ideal, as all possible movement will not be selected).
Buying on a downward movement (selling on an upward movement) carries much higher risks - you may encounter an MC much earlier than a reversal. Cash-loss strategies work in the commodities markets, simply because there is a natural constraint: the price will not go below zero. In Forex it is contraindicated because the natural constraint here is 1 and the price can easily go either higher or lower, especially if it is in a trend.
>> Good luck.
It is these criteria that are NOT my criteria. I say exactly the opposite of what you attribute to me.
If practice is your criterion, then tell me, in terms of practice, what would be the ideal entry for you at the time of opening a position?
My answer is the one with the least risk. Because, as you rightly pointed out, the intent (profit) is not known how it will be realized. But we can assess the risk quite objectively, in pips, if we have a TS, of course.
In general, I have never heard the concept of "ideal" interpreted solely in hindsight. "Ideal" does not depend on history. It is timeless :)
Amen
Your criterion for the ideal "least risk" corresponds indirectly to the main objectives of trading. I mean, it's simpler than that, if the goal is profit and not play, then the criterion for the ideal is that same profit. And minimising risk is more of a way of achieving the ideal.
Avals
====The risk in a trade depends on your actions and you can exit at the first tick against your position on any entry. Any such entry would be ideal?))======
It won't be an entry. It would be an exit.
My understanding of the theme is that we have decided to trade, we want to open a position. I mean, we're discussing the entrance. Which is in the front, not the back. The one in the back is gone, irrelevant. There's no money to be made or even lost on it.
What would an ideal entrance look like?
And I answer: because the future for us mortals is only a misty veil, we can only assess entry based on the risk we know (if we trade consciously and not play dumb). This - the distance to the stop loss - is the most important (well, one of) the criterion.
=====In the case of trading and comparing entries - it all depends on the chosen criteria of ideality.=====
Kim Bessinger with a beer will do :) I must be old by now...
I mean everything is simpler, if the goal is profit and not playful, then the criterion of the ideal is this very profit. And minimizing the risk, it is more a way to reach the ideal.
When I open a position, I can't estimate the size of the profit - I don't know it. But I can assess the level of risk.
And what do you mean by "aim for profit, not play? And what would be the ideal entry if I were to "play around"?
:)
When I open a position, I can't estimate the size of the profit - I don't know it. But I can assess the level of risk.
And what do you mean by "aim for profit, not play? And what would be the ideal entry if I were to "play around"?
:)
The ideal entry is when the profit/loss profit/interval ratio tends to infinity. Oh, yeah. And at the moment of entering we do not know yet if the entry is ideal. And we will know at the first tick. So if the first tick is positive, it is already ideal :)
And if one is just gambling, one should base it on the amount one is allowed to lose and the time until one is fully satisfied. The ideal is that one cent should be enough to last a lifetime in the game :) You can get by with one dollar. The mythical ideal gambler is the one who, since he was a boy at the beginning of the market, has been playing with the one dollar his daddy gave him for ice cream when he was a kid.
A perfect entry is when the profit/loss profit/interval ratio tends to infinity. How it is. And at the moment of entry we don't know yet if the entry is ideal. And we will know at the first tick. So if the first tick is positive, it is already ideal :)
Oh, yeah! Mankind is still looking for the ideal, and you have already found it - it turns out it comes with the first tick :)
Ok, I'm done with the flood, all I wanted to say to the point - it is important to have some point as close as possible when opening a position, which will be a kind of replay to change the estimation of the situation. Because it can be used as a stop loss. That is why we need to play from the borders of the channel/fractal/trend line - following the trend. The risk is small, the reward is big.
Despite the intemperance of Reshetov's remarks, I find only the content concerning trading to be true.
There are a few questions that are not difficult to answer:
1. What would be the maximal profit between Time1 and Time2.
If we have only OHLC and fix spread data, then this question can be answered rather roughly in pips, but in the form of a simple script.
Further you can specify, for example, that trades must be no less than that amount of pips.
If we have tick data, we can estimate it in pips. If the tick data are available with the volumes, then even more precise estimation in terms of money...
2. When you have answered the first question, you can apply its results to the evaluation of performed deals, as Time1 = OrderOpenTime(), Time2 = OrderCloseTime();
You can also statistically evaluate the whole system by doing a general analysis of all the transactions made by your system.
3. ...
I would like to add some constructiveness to the thread.