Testing real-time forecasting systems - page 79
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grasn писал(а) >>
PS: By the way, don't get into the stock market, it's not predictable at all. It's the one place where nothing works at all. Unless you have a proven insider.
Seryoga, good to see you on this thread. What is wrong with you? Why such tragedy? Tell me what's wrong.
Hi Sergei.
I'm upset with Swinopotamus. He first reassured me that everything at the Fund is free (transactions), then he confessed that there's no other way but to fornicate with hands... Now you've done the same to me - it turns out that BP is pure martin there :-(.
P.S. Does Porkpotam have, like, an insider?
There are just strongly correlated processes there, but in terms of control systems with a random structure, there is no understanding of which model and with which parameters will intercept the quote formation process. The data, there, says nothing at all. Just remember the legendary enron (you were shown the numbers that several people wanted for a very long time), and a bunch of other companies, and look at their behavior during the crisis. And compare with the behaviour of almost any quote (you won't find any crisis there, especially if you look at months)
Just so you understand, the range of quotes, for example, energy companies, and some other "resource" companies are decided in a narrow circle, (here just do not even argue and do not resemble some theorists) By comparing, analyzing, it becomes clear that foreign companies are no better in this regard. Moreover, in these markets - there is no market, there is a pyramid (MMM) in different modifications.
They can be predicted, but it is nonsense to do it by time series. You have to understand the interest of specific people, which is difficult.
Of course, this is my imho + my experience, + experience of friends (in my interpretation :o) + observations (including those of colleagues :o)) + common sense :o)
Yes, there is one more subtlety, pure martin in the market (in any market) has never been, is not, and never will be. For the simple reason that there are no completely uncontrollable processes. No one wants a fucking machine that cannot be controlled. Much less a totally unmanageable company or a totally unmanageable currency. So, it turns out that you should estimate a structure which would take over this control and to do it you should understand what structures exist.) That's how it is.
If we are talking about stocks, absolutely right. Pyramid is the pillar idea inherent in the essence of the stock.
Here is an abstract but clear example:
Two people agree to register a share. They start a trade. They trade with each other. The first one sells for $1 each. The second one sells for 2 c.u. The first one sells for 3 c.u. ............
Second one sells for 200 c.u., etc.
The third sees a great move. Buys from them at 1000 c.u. ............. And that's it. Gotcha...
Another EURUSD forecast, M15 (from Monday).
And its, in the sense of a forecast, ... technically non-existent. There was nothing in the area of existence of the solution. But near the "area", something was found. So, with the reservations, the prediction for 300 counts ahead:
(1) Trajectories found:
(2) Most "likely attractor":
View from MT:
(2) There is also a high probability of jumping to a "neighbouring" trajectory:
When this might happen, from which 'place' of motion - dunno
(3) Next most important trajectory, whose "probability" is hard to ignore:
But still, its position is not as strong
I will probably post my forecasts in this thread and not in the EURUSD thread.
Previous ones:
http://forex.sunstation.com/pics/eu_10292009.gif
http://forex.sunstation.com/pics/eu_11032009.gif
http://forex.sunstation.com/pics/eu_11092009.gif
http://forex.sunstation.com/pics/eu_11162009.gif
http://forex.sunstation.com/pics/eu_11232009.gif
For next week I will publish the forecast at 0 o'clock on Monday.
About the forecast - Forecast closing price at 4,8,12,16 counts into the future.
Hello, Sergei.
I got frustrated with Swinopotamus. At first he reassured me that everything at the Fund is free (transactions), then he confessed that there is no other way to do it except with hands... Now you've finished it too - it turns out that BP is pure martin there :-(
P.S. Does Swinopotam have an insider, like?
Very nice. So why lie about grunopotamus? )))
I didn't write anything like that.
1. Everything is not free - either commission on turnover (standard), or unlimited (not everyone and not for everyone).
2. there is trade automation, but through the glans.
3. I do not have an insider. But it is not required for my trading strategies. On the contrary, I am strongly against the insider - I have had experience. I have had sad experiences. I don't know how to use it, I may be very disappointed, if I try to use it for some purpose.
===
Sergey (grasn)!
The unquestioning style of judgement in general, and in particular (and even more so!) about things where you yourself have no personal experience, leaves a strange impression. How shall I put it, not to be too offensive ... immaturity, as it were...
Sorry to be blunt, but your comment about "insider only" is rubbish. I'd take a closer look at your acquaintances.
to Neutron.
See, I told you there's no such thing as free cheese.
to Svinozavr
How can I explain it to you so that you ... finally ... understand. In this matter we differ one fact - I just know, and as for some companies we have, I know for sure (well, that's how it happened, the stars have aligned). Advice is not necessary here, wrote what is in fact, and besides, I'm specifically for you in particular stipulated - imho. But no, again!
Of course you can make money on pyramids (not for long), but I don't believe that you could foresee the collapse of enron with your pictures of channels. That's a very telling example!!! Very revealing!!! I don't remember all the details, but about a year or so experienced traders (I'm not going to point fingers :o)) were shown the quotes all ugly as fuck (and the company was actually already bankrupt). OF COURSE!!! YOU WERE IN THE MARKET AT THE TIME!!!!
Or are you predicting a crisis? (There have been a lot of crises in different sectors). And then there are all sorts of contingencies (Katrina for example - are you making predictions about that too?).
In short, I wrote what I wrote, I expressed my opinion and I did it perfectly correctly. Swine, the world has come to an end, I'm sick of your "idiot", "no personal experience yourself", "immaturity", it was amusing for a while, now it's boring.
You have so many posts in such a short space of time and what are they about? In my terminology - you are unfortunately a blabbermouth, although I may have made a few grammatical errors in that word. Now, listen carefully pig of much experience, and read my lips - fuck you.
That's what I thought - a child's garden. I was told by my colleagues: 'Why, Petyka, did you join the Forex market and even hang out on their forum? It's mainly youngsters, lowlifes and beggars there. - Come on, - I said. - There's plenty of that everywhere. What about software, mathematics? You, sellers... (There's really literate in this field. (There are really not so many educated people in this field.)
As always, the truth is somewhere in the superposition - there are different people. But there are, as I was promised - I mean you, Seryozha. When you have got over your youthful ego and childish illnesses at the real trade, then maybe we will talk. For now you don't understand anything. Even what I have written in Russian - as if you have read someone else, judging by your arguments. Predictions are not for me.
In the meantime... you're right, there's no point in talking. Different categories. And upbringing, it seems, too. (Unlike you, I don't lie behind my eyes, I don't stoop to playing up nicknames and avatars (well humour) and I apologise when I get hot).
Good luck.
===
And about the blabbermouth - there is such a thing! ))) The fact is that as soon as the crisis began to gain a wild momentum and shorts were banned - I withdrew everything into cash. Then, when the context on the days allowed - I bought GP (about 100 rubles on the Wed), VTB (not for 2 kopecks, of course, much higher, but good too), Sberbank there and some other bits and pieces. NOT trading yet. There is time for a new one. Of course, I also have money to live on. That's why I'm socialising.
Gentlemen, why don't we create a separate thread for this. In this thread, post your predictions only on the topic at hand.