Price movements can be predicted ! - page 5
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There are two pieces of news:
one bad news - it is impossible to predict the price
the other is good 'YZ_PIPSATOR_EURGPB - Inspiration from championship results' price forecasting is not necessary
Stop with the trends.
Maybe, you mean: "a group of EAs for EURGPB, with small targets, works quite correctly and goes up without breaking the rules".
Of course, you can do it that way, for the time being. However, in my opinion, without solving the main question, the question of price prediction, any method of
will be just another manipulation that will sooner or later ruin the inventor.
So far, the conclusion to be drawn from the responses is that no one is seriously considering price forecasting....
You must mean: "a group of EURGPB EAs, with small targets, work quite correctly and go up without breaking the rules".
You can, of course, for the time being. However, in my opinion, without solving the main question, the question of price prediction, any method of
will be just another manipulation, which will sooner or later ruin the inventor.
Yes, about the advisor group.
One cannot completely abstract away from prediction, pipsolovs absolutely correctly assume (based on the fact that the normal distribution prevails) that the price is more likely to be stable than to get a deviation. That is the prediction.
It makes no sense to go any further than that.
And the self-comforting methods like EFT etc. are not able to give even a more or less decent prediction in reality.
Yes, about the EA group.
You can't completely abstract away from the forecast, pipsolvers are absolutely correct in assuming (on the basis that the normal distribution prevails) that price is more likely to be stable than to get a deviation. That is the prediction.
It makes no sense to go any further than that.
In reality, methods like EVT and others, tapped to appease ourselves, can't even give a more or less decent forecast.
Of course, 80-90% of the time the price isn't moving anywhere, except, so to speak, for the fluctuations from 30 to 100 points.
As a matter of fact, it turns out that 80-90% of players don't go any further than that.
And the fate of those 80-90% is also known.
Of course, 80-90% of the time the price is not moving anywhere, unless you count fluctuations between 30 and 100 pts, so to speak.
In fact, it turns out that 80-90% of players do not go any further than that.
And the fate of these 80-90% is also known.
Even within fluctuations, not to mention the price entering a trend, can get high.
You are waiting for a local trend on Baxofrank.
To feel calm and secure, it would be good to sell puts in the money on the franc, or at least to buy futures.
There is no possibility for a hedge and it is dangerous to go in a trend.
It's not that simple, Sergei. At the end of the day, gambling is also a prediction, but not of the price, but of its direction. We simply believe that if the wands cross in a certain way, then price will go in the direction indicated by the nature of the crossing. This, of course, is not the case. For that to happen, price must first behave in some sort of inertia. That is not true either. The proof is the sinking of the waving systems at what we call flat, i.e. where the waving starts jumping chaotically around a horizontal straight line and two waving systems give a lot of false signals.
The dream of a technical analyst working with signals from the indirect indicators is not a non lagging indicator, but an indicator reflecting some or other inertial properties of the price. Only then it can really work, because at best it only shows the present, but not the future. In the case of the bag, it is, for example, the requirement that when a slow fast crosses from below, the price moves upwards for at least a certain amount of time and with a probability that gives us a statistical advantage. I am not aware of any classic indirect indicator that reflects the inertial properties of price.
To show reasonably the admirers of indirect indicators that they are wrong, I will have to take a pen and paper (or MS XL) and clearly, on the statistical material, show how price may behave, for example, after crossing a slow wand fast from the bottom up. I suspect that with equal stops, in about half of the cases before the next crossing it will move up, and in the other half it will move down. This is a clear demonstration of the powerlessness of the two wipers in the "market in general". I've had this frozen draft article on the subject in my drawer for a long time now. I will probably finish it when things get a bit easier.
100 p. against the wool - means absolutely nothing. The prediction remains valid.
I would like to draw the attention of the community once again - no one has made their prediction.
How people play forex is unclear....
One figure in a six figure prediction of course may not mean much... But the main mistake in any forecast is not to revise it in time to take into account new data, and they are not yet in favour of your forecast. With all due respect, but in hindsight, isn't that what ruined your depo in 'Beginner trader works on real account on Elliott Waves (invest - password attached)...'? The holy faith in the infallibility of the forecast, the infallibility of EWT... Although, due to my trading history, I would be only happy if your prediction is justified.
It's not that simple, Sergei. At the end of the day, gambling is also a forecast, but not of the price, but of its direction. We simply believe that if the wands cross in a certain way, the price will go in the direction indicated by the nature of the crossing. This, of course, is not the case. For that to happen, price must first behave in some sort of inertia. That is not true either. The proof is the sinking of the waving systems at what we call flat, i.e. where the waving starts jumping chaotically around a horizontal straight line and two waving systems give a lot of false signals.
The dream of a technical analyst working with signals from the indirect indicators is not a non lagging indicator, but an indicator reflecting some or other inertial properties of the price. Only then it can really work, because at best it only shows the present, but not the future. In the case of the bag, it is, for example, the requirement that when a slow fast crosses from below, the price moves upwards for at least a certain amount of time and with a probability that gives us a statistical advantage. I am not aware of any classic indirect indicator that reflects the inertial properties of price.
To show reasonably the admirers of indirect indicators that they are wrong, I will have to take a pen and paper (or MS XL) and visually, on the statistical material, show how price may behave, for example, after crossing a slow wand fast from the bottom up. I suspect that with equal stops, in about half of the cases before the next crossing it will move up, and in the other half it will move down. This is a clear demonstration of the powerlessness of the two wipers in the "market in general". I've had this frozen draft article on the subject in my drawer for a long time now. I'll probably finish it when things get a bit easier.
What if there are not two MAs, but 100 or 200? And use their inertia and periodicity relative to each other?
This is already an AO indicator. And it's called spectral analysis first, extrapolation and then spectral synthesis.
Here we get a very likely future.
One figure in a six-figure forecast may not mean much, of course... But the main mistake with any prediction is not to revise it in time with new data, and it is not yet in favour of your prediction. With all due respect, but in hindsight, isn't that what ruined your depo in 'Beginner trader works on real account on Elliott Waves (invest - password attached)...'? The holy faith in the infallibility of the forecast, the infallibility of EWT... Although, due to my trading pattern, I will only be happy if your prediction is justified.
Of course, there's a silver lining...
The pound is very fast. In the last three months, my only close with a loss was again on the pound.
But you have to rely on something with 70-90% confidence. In this sense it's better to rely on the theory confirmed by empirical data - V.T.E.
As it seems, no other methods of predicting price movement have been invented. I think you would agree that the forecasts in the link you cited were excellent...
It's not that simple, Sergei.
Mathematician, hello! I thought I'd do some exercise, get some energy boost, so to speak.
I reread the V.T.E. and at the same time closely observe price movements - sometimes the impression is mystical, so accurately does the V.T.E. predict price movements...
Whatever you want to call it, Vadim, it is also possible to check this system, if it is fully formalized. It's just that this check will not be in time space, like in our tester, but in the space of Close price sequences. And the statistics can be of any size you want.
P.S. I'm not claiming that there is no such combination of TA indicators that robustly gives profit. It's just that the polemics in this thread so far have been based on emotion rather than verifiable assertions. "EWP doesn't work! Inducers don't predict the future!" etc.