MTS = profit FALSE ||TRUE - page 6

New comment
 
YuraZ писал (а) >>

if we talk about specific experts, or rather one of them, it is still there - but the condition is obvious, it's on a downtrend

Let's not talk about specific experts, especially with such conditions... Otherwise I'll remember the Zoncker, who almost won the first championship.

An indicator of what would the zonker be?

The story about the 5% is repeated by word of mouth. Is there a source for it? Or is it an OBS story?

Let's stick to the facts. With a random opening, there's a 50% chance of profit minus the spread. That's a fact, and we can build on it. If new facts emerge, we'll take them on board, but for now, just what we have.

 

By the way, one more fact.

The number of traders in profit in the first and second championships is the same. What does it mean, I do not know yet, I have nothing to compare it with.

The only conclusion that can be drawn is that the total mass of EA writers has not wised up over the year, but they have not grown stupid either.

 

YuraZ писал (а) >>

it is obvious that the ! BETTER is trained to buy - you can see it with the naked eye.

On the forum he tried to deny it. Although it is indeed visible to the naked eye.

YuraZ wrote (a) >>

it's also obvious that she is not really losing on the downswing

>> it's not obvious.

timbo wrote (a) >>

But maybe the organizers have other aims. But perhaps the organizers really have other goals.

No one will agree to this, because we will probably get even a larger gap than 95% and 5%. What kind of popularisation of autotrading we talking about then?

The championship has clearly demonstrated the ability of the majority to lose money. Are the minority able to earn, or it is just an accident? To this question, the championship did not provide an answer.

 
Belford писал (а) >>

To this question, the championship did not give an answer.

I agree - it didn't.

--> it's not obvious.

I was referring to deep corrections probably.

to be correctly understood : I give definitions

DOWN - UP trend I see as a one year - or more

According to this for the Euro, the UP trend is not over at the moment

we have to go to W1 Mn1 to see what I mean

- I don't want to sell the Euro on W1 Mn1 right?

---

timbo - agree with your reasons

 

603 monkeys are bound to lose everything, and 1603 monkeys are bound to lose everything, simple as that:

- if we count on probability theory, they'll lose because of MM, and they're guaranteed!

- If they try to think (to identify the trend), many will lose (and those who will not lose will not be as much in the black), and due to the change of the market behavior, they will win even less, and their winnings will be even less.

Are there profitable Expert Advisors?

Yes, they do. Right now I have one of them working very well, my deposit has increased by 50% for a week and a half.

i checked it, it does not lose:

it does not lose on long history, it does not lose on different currency pairs, and in short it does not lose at all, if you turn the strategy is also not going to lose for some reason :?

The logic behind it is simple:

In order for an EA not to lose money:

1) it should play nicely!!! - so that the trader does not want to interfere

2) the Expert Advisor should set so that any interference of the trader would only improve the situation, and not vice versa! (my Expert Advisor shows me when I can place and in what direction, at the same time, it sets itself, and I can close its stakes when I want, and this will only improve the situation)

3) He should not plummet in whichever direction the market goes, well, he should not plummet on all pairs! (to feel good in the chaos)

the first two points are much harder than the third!

Note: it did not lose money - it means a very good profit with a small drawdown!

i will show you a screenshot as an example tonight (from a real account and from a test)

 
wenay писал (а) >>

603 monkeys are bound to lose everything, and 1603 monkeys are bound to lose everything, simple as that:

Everyone loved the monkeys so much - me too !

( all at once they think that the monkey will open a sell bye like in the movies when they play the piano )

timbo - he used the "monkeys" example and used some kind of aligory to reinforce the impression.

just assuming it will be some kind of coincidence and not actually putting a monkey behind a terminal.

---

i think if you generate a random number ! then it is possible that several advisors - who will not generate it too often, for example once a week - will finish with a balance above 10k

like emulating a monkey.

 
timbo писал (а) >>

Let's stick to the facts. At a random opening, the probability of profit is 50% minus the spread. This is a fact, from which we can build on. If new facts emerge, we will take them on board, but for now just what we have.

To check if there are any prognostic abilities in the total MTS which elements are separate participants of C-07, in principle, you can: - total number of deals multiplied by the spread and compare it with the total profit earned in pips in terms of EUR/USD pips.

If the profit earned is greater than the loss on the spread, it means there is something in it, otherwise it's obvious that we are monkeys.


 
timbo писал (а) >>

Let's not talk about specific experts, especially with such conditions... Otherwise I'll remember the Zoncker who almost won the first championship.

An indicator of what would a zonker be?

The story about the 5% is repeated by word of mouth. Is there a source? Or is it an OBS story?

Let's stick to the facts. With a random opening, there's a 50% chance of profit minus the spread. That's a fact, and we can build on it. If new facts emerge, we'll take them, but for now it's all we've got.

No.

 
paukas писал (а) >>

No.

If the distribution is evenly distributed and the frequency of TP=SL is constant, the probability is 50%... Write an EA, which with an equal frequency of 10 minutes will for 300 days open two opposite positions with TP=SL and equal to half of the average weekly delta for the previous ten weeks... You can just take SL=10 STOPLIMIT, run it from any point in history for at least 500 days (that everything closed by itself) and see the result will be about 49.6% of profitable trades and 32% of 67% of shorts and longs respectively. Data for 2007.06 -2008.06 with SL=TP=10

So the monkeys rule... They almost caught up with MTS with their cherished 52%...

:)) And if you advise the monkeys a bit :))) ( laughing )

So if you just don't open the shorts it will be 67%... They are the record holders of the championship... :))) 

Супер МТС -- Чудо обезьян! Копирайты не забывайте... :))) 
extern double SL=5;
datetime TimeStart;
int init(){TimeStart=TimeCurrent();}
int deinit(){}
int start()
  {
   if ( TimeCurrent() - TimeStart > 60*1440*300 )
      return;
    
   SL=0;
   for ( int i=1;i<=10;i++){
      SL=SL+(iHigh(0,PERIOD_W1,i)-iLow(0,PERIOD_W1,i))/2;
   }
   
   SL=(SL/10)/Point;
   SL=SL/MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_STOPLEVEL); 
   
   static datetime lts,ltb;

   /*
   
   if ( TimeCurrent() - lts >= 10*60 ){
      lts=TimeCurrent();
      
         OrderSend ( 
               Symbol(),
               OP_SELL,
               MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_MINLOT),
               Bid,
               0,
               NormalizeDouble( (MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_STOPLEVEL))*Point,Digits)*SL+Ask, // sl
               NormalizeDouble(-(MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_STOPLEVEL))*Point,Digits)*SL+Bid
             );
   }
   */

   if ( TimeCurrent() - ltb >= 10*60 ){            
      ltb=TimeCurrent();
      
         OrderSend ( 
               Symbol(),
               OP_BUY,
               MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_MINLOT),
               Ask,
               0,
               NormalizeDouble(-(MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_STOPLEVEL))*Point,Digits)*SL+Bid,
               NormalizeDouble( (MarketInfo(Symbol(),MODE_STOPLEVEL))*Point,Digits)*SL+Ask
             );         
   }              
  }

Timbo, I'm glad there are some smart people here...

 

Script 603 monkey:)

Files:
s_603_monkeys_1.mq4  6 kb
12345678910111213...19
New comment