Bring the MARTINGALE to its senses. - page 4

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Mathemat:
paukas wrote (a): Do you have a risk-free working method? :) There is no increase in risk. There is a reduction. The result of each trade can be considered independent. Two trades are better than one. Pure mathematics.

1. I don't have a risk-free method (I'm not that crazy yet), but I'm slowly and surely moving towards a risk-reducing method.

2. What do you mean by "no increase in risk", dear Vladimir Paukas? The loss was more than in one trade. "Two trades are better than one" - only in the sense that the average result of each (the richest average) is better than the one of the first. But when assessing risk I wouldn't do it by averaging, it's dangerous.

3. "I would agree, if entries are separated by tens of pips, say, on H1. But this hypothesis should also be verified by mathematics.

Dear Mathemat.

The loss and the risk are the same for you? That's the news! :)

Why are you comparing different volumes? It's clear to the hedgehog that the risk increases when you increase the volume.

Compare one trade of 2 lots with two of 1 lot and a total stop. And say - does the risk increase with this averaging, or vice versa? :)

 

No, it is not the same. My own measure of risk is the potential loss multiplied by its probability. I would like to know how you measure risk - to talk about something specific?

P.S. If the trading system is Bernoullian, then the risks of both trades are equal - if their volumes are equal.

Вы давайте сравните одну сделку 2 лота с двумя по 1 и общим стопом. И скажите - увеличивается ли риск при таком усреднении или наоборот? :)

I agree, it reduces, but that's two big differences. Why on earth would I open one trade with 2 lots - if, in your own words, the results of the trades are independent?

 
Mathemat:

No, it is not the same. My own measure of risk is the potential loss multiplied by its probability. I would like to know how you measure risk in order to talk about something specific?

Risk is, in my humble understanding, the product of the potential loss multiplied by the probability of it occurring.

You see, you are immediately increasing the volume - not good :)

 
Well there you go, we both gave identical definitions of risk. Take a look at my post, I added a few things there. Without specifying the parameters of the stops, talking about risk is pointless.
 
Mathemat:
Well there you go, we both gave identical definitions of risk. Have a look at my post, I added some stuff in there.

Answer.

You will not be making a trade with two lots, I will be entering with half of your lot with an average of the other half and

(Nicole's method - she's such a darling :))

And who will have less risk?

 

Convinced, my dear fellow. That makes a lot of sense now. I'll self-liquidate.

P.S. Question: how many trades do you think you can get to if you run into a really strong trend? How do you determine the initial lot with such averaging?

 
Mathemat:
You've convinced me, my dear. That makes a lot of sense. I'll liquidate myself.

Nice talking to you.

It is not the averaging itself that is dangerous, but the increase in the size of the position to an obscene amount.

And controlled averaging has been, is and will be used. It shows itself quite well in flat conditions.

Well, there is only one problem: to average now or to reverse? :))))

 

paukas, can you give me a link to Nicole's method, who is a soul mate? I'm very interested in MM at the moment...

Actually, the problem is the same: to average now or to roll over? :))))

Well, this problem is unsolvable with a forecast horizon of one trade.

 
Mathemat:

paukas, can you give me a link to Nicole's method, who is a soul mate? I'm very interested in MM at the moment...

Actually, the problem is the same: to average now or to flip? :))))

Well, this problem is unsolvable with one deal forecast horizon.

We are trying. In Eurobucks the horizon is felt with right toe. I don't want it to go away :)

Yes it's Nicole Eliot from Mitsuhi. Constantly giving recommendations to buy euros with one averaging.

I used to follow them. Nice work Mitsuha.

As I understand it, the whole depth of the pullback was taken, because it is impossible to predict.

These are the recommendations http://elitetrader.ru/banks_research/mizuho/

Strategy. Sell at 1.5715, strengthen the position to 1.5800; stop above 1.5825. Short term target at 1.5600 and possibly 1.5400.

 
I will add my 5 kopecks. In 2007 I actively traded on margin on real account for half a year. The Expert Advisor was two-handed (as in the second screenshot of the author), simultaneously opened both long and short. My deposit reached $1000, then I received a margin call. Trades were on the eu, cable and chif. I think it was a minus as all three pairs correlate with each other. Nevertheless situations when the trend is exactly without reversal (more precisely, the pullback is smaller than the step of position opening and therefore does not allow closing the pyramid) are not just numerous, but very numerous. I lost my trust in Martin after that. And one more significant minus for me is very inefficient use of deposit - for two-armed martin I had to keep $15.000 deposit (cent account) to work with 0.1 lot. Not comilfo. :)
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