Why sell profitable EAs! - page 5
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Besides, everyone is different. There are crooks and there are enterprising people. If a crook buys a sucker off the hook, that does not mean that the advisor market is all about deception. It is true that this market is still gaining momentum.
More, of course. This is the case in any market where the criteria for the quality of the product (service) are absent or too vague.
We can often confidently say, "Sovetneg - ftop!" by showing conditions, not contradicting those claimed by its creator, under which it leaks - simply because a single fact against the model (theory) kills the whole model.
But we can't confidently assert otherwise, "Robusten!", because we have no sensible and valid criteria positively asserting the quality of the strategy. We, hehe, don't even know the very criteria of robustness. The only testing methodology I know, described by Pardo and based on optimization by parameters and further forward analysis, seems to really pretend to be a transitional standard of testing methodology temporarily - until a decent methodology is created. Even Pardo himself stipulates that after the positive completion of all the stages he describes, there remains the possibility that the strategy will crumble in real life. The main reason for this is the lack of statistical data, which would normally represent different types of behavior of a financial instrument.
And now a question: Has anyone seen at least one Expert Advisor on pay.ru or other platforms that has gone through the entire Pardo procedure? Can the seller of the EA demonstrate the results of the numerous and tedious tests showing that it is robust according to Pardo?
Igonter, I have great respect for you and have no doubt that you didn't put your products up for sale to find a sucker you could sell them to just to get money for them and wash your hands of them. Reputation comes before money. But I have the same question for you: Are there any other criteria or tests, other than those you have posted in the Alpari thread, which you have used to evaluate your EAs - and if there are, can you post them as well?
Until we have at least some more or less acceptable on various sites, I can't take this "emerging market" with any seriousness - and I can't take the phrase "profitable Expert Advisor" without a smile.
The real candidate for such a standard today is the complete Pardo methodology, which can be conventionally assigned the highest rank (as of today) of 100. If it seems too complex, we can propose something simpler, but we should clearly understand that the graphical demonstration of the optimization results only on the trained data, even together with the report numbers and list of trades, is obviously too weak as a criterion of Expert Advisor quality. Compared to Pardo it is rank 5-10 at the most.
P.S. I am not even talking about honesty/dishonesty here, that is a whole other issue. Although, again, the lack of the above standard makes the second option, dishonesty, much more likely.
PS I haven't got into details there yet, but the ratio of profit to drawdown was indicated by the author himself.
Besides, everyone is different. There are crooks and there are enterprising people. If a crook buys a sucker off the hook, that does not mean that the advisor market is all about deception. True, this market is still gaining momentum.
The market is gaining momentum not because someone is honest and someone is not, but because the technology offered by MQ is becoming more and more popular. And the crooks can only count on a little of their cheating sales because there are still newcomers. As solid marketplaces appear, the percentage of fraudulent sales will decrease.
The cheaters can count on a lot of their che ating sales. Because the main buyer is not newbies, but green with plummeting clinics, for which Forex is already sick with "just a little longer and I will return everything". I've seen them in DC live - and it's very unpleasant. They are ready to listen to anyone and buy anything, there is no stopping them anymore. We can reduce the emergence of new ones (not clinics, it's not real, but buyers), just while there are "newbies" - we need a series of articles showing how to create an EA that gives excellent reps in the tester, and why it will sell out in the real time. And the more ways revealed, the better. As long as the person hasn't fallen ill, it's still possible for him to postpone the thought "something is wrong here". Then it is too late. But who will waste his time on it...
For those who are not yet completely mature, buying the exeshtnik is the first sign of the onset of clinics. This is the first sign that the EA has started to show signs of a clinic. There are no EAs that do not constantly work and do not adjust to changes in the market.
But this is just my personal opinion, and I'm not going to impose it on anyone. And when I say "All indicators are for self-deception" - it's not a joke, in fact, only your own indicator can properly "self-deceive" you :).
... The cheaters can only count on a little bit of their cheating sales because there are still newcomers. As solid marketplaces emerge, the percentage of fraudulent sales will decrease.
Without a doubt, there are no such EAs out there, nor can there be. Systems that passed the testing procedure described by Pardo are extremely rare (but they do exist) and are of great interest to serious investors. Moreover, the practice shows that these systems are really quite robust.
Newcomers have always been, are and will always be. Fraudulent sales will continue as long as there is no unified criteria for evaluating TS and primary filtration of low-quality products on the marketplaces themselves. The simplest criterion could be a demo test of 3 months or more. For example, without a login to a 3-month or more demo account, the platform would not accept the Expert Advisor for sale. But let's ask ourselves: who benefits from this now? No one, except the newbie buyers. Sellers/authors (????) are interested in selling any product, and site owners are too, because they get a % of sales.
Of course it's a playground.
"There are already quite a few 'venues'. The most interested, the most honest (primarily for reasons of healthy self-interest) is the MT developer. A platform from MQ would be very much in demand, I've been saying that for a year now. Why it hasn't been until now is anyone's guess. In addition to all sorts of organisational reasons I can think of this: until there are at least a few solid experts, there is nothing to build a site on. Not to flood it with plum nonsense.
We have every reason to think that the question will arise after the Championship 2008.
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By the way, not only automatons will be sold, but also semi-automatic machines, indicators, libraries, subscriptions to signals, etc.