The battle: an efficient market and a TS with a positive maturity expectation. Who will win? - page 7
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Are you saying that most traders take a "child's position"?
Yes, that's exactly what I mean. And you are no exception. You, too, have taken the position of a child. You don't want to accept responsibility for your losses. You would rather justify them with market volatility. And the fact that you do not want, cannot, or do not have enough time to change after the market, you humbly keep silent about it.
On the subject of market volatility a word or two. It's not really as volatile as you want to make it out to be. What is the market? It's people with their fears, their desires, their hopes. These are human emotions that have been constant for many hundreds of years. Just as most people have been driven by fear and greed, they still are. In that sense, the market is constant.
The TS should be unchanging (at least that's what a lot of people who write books about trading say).
I'm talking about changing volatility - that's what makes it impossible to consistently make profits with a rigid (non-adaptive) TS.
Concerning the market volatility a couple of words. In fact it is not as volatile as you want to show. What is the market? It is first of all people with their fears, desires, hopes. These are human emotions that have remained unchanged for many hundreds of years. Just as most people have been driven by fear and greed, they still are. In that sense, the market is constant.
I totally agree!
I would like to add that market changes are more quantitative than qualitative. The volatility and volumes are increasing every month and every year, which indicates the increasing liquidity of financial markets in general and forex in particular. And if its principles and mechanisms are changing, then very little and slowly. Classical TA worked several years ago and it is still working now. For a long time and not without success I use it on higher (D1 or higher) TF: figures, lines, levels. The increased volatility is only a changed scale which may be perceived as increased leverage. On the one hand, it helps to gain more profit for those who take it, on the other hand it helps to lose more profit for those who lose. In any case, I perceive the increased volatility as positive, because it decreases trader's expenses in the form of spread / profit ratio.
Services to take money away from the majority and pass it on to the minority? Very useful services...
One-sided thinking... Mosquitoes pester everyone in summer and everyone wants to get rid of them once and for all. But you can't do that because mosquitoes are food for a huge number of birds.
They do not take money from most people. They give it to them themselves. The child's position (oops, I was offended) is very convenient for shirking responsibility. I wasn't the one who allowed myself to be offended, I was the one who was offended by evil men. I wasn't the one who brought and gave my money, I was the one who was forced (by threats to make me a millionaire) to give it away. Isn't it time to become an adult and take responsibility for yourself, instead of blaming your failures on the market?
Are you saying that most traders take a "child's position"?
Traders don't give back to themselves. We traders are not the crazies you make us out to be.
The market changes and trading systems that were profitable in the past become unprofitable. The market is constantly changing to protect itself from traders' profits.
You think that the market fights with traders - by knocking stops - goes against the position of traders and so on?
So you think that there is a mechanism for this?
p.s.
i think otherwise
--- had a good trade this year working with the trend! I've been trading pretty good this year in a trend!
i don't think the market is struggling with traders, traders feed it with lots of losses and deposits
as a matter of fact, most traders' deposits are like a grain of sand in a sandbox.
Household traders have so little influence on the market that a grain of sand cannot influence the sand bucket
i.e. the market is just like a grain of sand with deposits of 1-100 kt in total - will the market reverse trends because of a grain of sand? - I don't think so
the fight is within us especially when we press the sell or buy button
The market is not actively struggling, it is just passively changing so that the strata becomes at least not profitable.
As a result the commonly used indicators lose effectiveness over time.
It is passively - and hence the lag in market changes - that can be used to profit.
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There is market asymmetry and the bulls rule and the bears rest.
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But why? Because the market changes quickly, and traders react to these changes slowly. We need to create an adaptive TS, which would constantly adapt to the market. And it would allow making profit all the time. Well, almost all the time.
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But what if there is a TS and an Expert Advisor using it? The Expert Advisor is profitable on history, but if it is used on the demo-register, it will fail? But not at the beginning it is losing, but in the beginning we have some profit, and then (when the market has changed) uncle Kolya comes.
1 I REPEAT ! The market is not a living thing it doesn't know anything about your TS !
2) Expert Advisor is good - it trades better than most! go to the first page of the Championship and see for yourself!
----
i don't write EAs that will give you profit for life
but i can write a program that will give you profit for half a year
( i will correct it in half a year) i will double or even triple deposit in half a year
https://www.mql5.com/ru/users/meta-trader2007/ your TS?
The market does not need to know about the TS, it just changes the volatility as its turnover decreases and this makes entries according to the rules that gave the most profitable entry point the first time no longer accurate and after some time and completely unprofitable.
Why six months? - The market during this time changes and the pattern, on which the Expert Advisor was winning, no longer gives profitable entry points?
My TS is incorrectly optimising the parameters and is leaking..... I did not have time to properly prepare my EA - before the end of registration an error was detected and I managed to correct it only on the last day of EAs acceptance :(
TS should not change (at least that's what most people who write trading books say).
I'm talking about changing volatility - that's what makes it impossible to consistently make a profit with a rigid (non-adaptive) TS.
from my point of view, you're wrong!
the TS should be adaptive!
a simple example the average daily movement of the euro in 2006? it is higher than in 2007 in 2005 it was even higher
calculate the average daily move per month - week 3 days 4 months from wave to wave etc.
and you will understand that the TS should be adaptive
you think it is not worth building on the intraday deals? if such are present in the TS
therefore the average daily move can be calculated at the close of each day and make adjustments to the intraday entry levels
(I mean not every day entering the market immediately, but every day entering the market when the event with additional attributes occurs! )
Concerning the market volatility a couple of words. In fact it is not as volatile as you want to show. What is the market? First of all, it is people with their fears, desires, hopes. These are human emotions that have remained unchanged for hundreds of years. Just as most people have been driven by fear and greed, they still are. In that sense, the market is constant.
Totally agree!
I would like to add that market changes are more quantitative than qualitative. The volatility and volumes are increasing every month and every year, which indicates the increasing liquidity of financial markets in general and forex in particular. And if its principles and mechanisms are changing, then very little and slowly. Classical TA worked several years ago and it is still working now. For a long time and not without success I use it on higher (D1 or higher) TF: figures, lines, levels. The increased volatility is only a changed scale which may be perceived as increased leverage. On the one hand, it helps to gain more profit for those who take it, on the other hand it helps to lose more profit for those who lose. In any case, I perceive the increased volatility as positive, because it decreases trader's expenses in the form of spread / profit ratio.
...
it doesn't have to be half a year ! you can take hai lows for longer periods
I'm just saying that conditionally!
Conformity to the market - means that the trading system must indicate the points of entering the market so that each and every pose has a positive mathematical expectation for any market volatility. There is a mathematical expectation for each specific trade, of course, it would be better to say that this mathematical expectation should be potential, or rather it should be 100% probability of the positive outcome of a trade. This probability should be provided by adaptivity of the system to any volatility: from flat +-10 pips to large trends and sharp, powerful movements.
Regarding your second paragraph... I think you need to read up on the basics of terver/statistics. "...so that each and every pose has a positive mathematical expectation" - that's, sorry, illiterate. It's not just one pose that has a mathematical expectation, it's the totality of them.
Well, three additional pages of this thread, it seems to me, have not brought you closer to the idea of constructing this system. Or do you think that, knowing how, what and from whom is allegedly taken away on Foreh, you will know where to enter and exit?
If you psychologically perceive the market as a real blood enemy (black hole), it is not easy to work in it. IMHOthe financial market is not much different from the household market, where many of us buy potatoes, cabbage... There (like on financial markets) there's no hole, the money doesn't go nowhere, it is redistributed between its participants (sellers / buyers), part of it goes to organizers in the form of spread, commission, differences in + / - swaps... I don't see a hole :)
Why half a year? - The market changes during this time and the pattern, on which the Expert Advisor has been winning, does not give profitable entry points anymore ?
My TS is incorrectly optimised parameters and it's leaking..... I did not manage to prepare my EA well - before the end of registration an error was detected and I managed to correct it only on the last day of EAs acceptance :(
Note the leader - it's true, he is not the leader now, but it seems he has a high probability of winning!
having only opened once on the canadian!
3 entries count as one trade! he has excellent chances to win - but if the Canadian goes into a prolonged flat till the end of the year, he will have no chances for 1 2 3 places
or does anyone think that the annual trends for the dollar reversed yesterday?
Are you saying that most traders take a "child's position"?
Yes, that's exactly what I mean. And you are no exception. You, too, have taken the position of a child. You don't want to accept responsibility for your losses. You are more likely to justify them with the volatility of the market. And the fact that you do not want, cannot, or do not have time to change with the market, you humbly keep silent about it.
On the volatility of the market, a word or two. It's not really as volatile as you want to make it out to be. What is the market? It's people with their fears, their desires, their hopes. These are human emotions that have been constant for many hundreds of years. Just as most people have been driven by fear and greed, they still are. In that sense, the market is constant.
The TS - should be unchanging (at least that's what a lot of human writers who write books on trading say).
I'm talking about volatility changing - that's what makes it impossible to consistently profit with a rigid (non-adaptive) TS.
In my opinion, you are mistaken!
the TS should be adaptive!
a simple example the daily moving average of the euro in 2006? it's higher than in 2007, in 2005 it was even higher.
calculate the average daily move per month - week 3 days 4 months from wave to wave etc.
and you will understand that the TS must be adaptive
you think it is not worth building on the intraday deals? if such are present in the TS
respectively the average daily move can be calculated with the close of each day and make adjustments to the intraday entering
(I mean not every day entering the market immediately, but every day entering the market when the event with additional attributes occurs! )
I just wrote that the TS to win consistently must be adaptive to volatility!
And the immutability that the book authors have in mind is the immutability of trading rules (otherwise the TS would not be mechanical). If you read my posts on pages 2,3 in this thread you should know what I'm saying: we need a TS that would be fully adaptive to volatility, that is TS that corresponds to the market situation for taking profit with any volatility - from flat to large trends and sharp and strong movements in currency rates (and stocks, futures, options, indices, and so on...).