Tendential planimetry method
So, speaking of which...
I remembered an experiment. A donkey had a paint brush tied to its tail and was made to run on a piece of poster board. The donkey was forced to run with the brush on a piece of vatman. They hung the "work" in some fancy gallery and watched the connoisseurs oohing and aahing while looking at it and trying to understand what the artist wanted to say. The most connoisseurs claimed they understood the artist's emotional passion!
That's how it is with the market.
I do not want to offend anyone.
Parabellum appreciated the humour. I had never heard of a donkey. I've heard of a chimpanzee. It's a more intelligent creature than a donkey.
Nevertheless, analogy is not an argument. There are only two key points in my reasoning.
1) The fluxes are traces of fluxes that are distorted by the current situation and gradually forgotten. I hope this is obvious to one and all.
2) Flat is a key element for the analysis and understanding of the market. It is not so obvious, but it is acceptable.
Everything else follows from here. So I have explained the movements of my donkey's tail. And while remaining standing on solid ground. Not involving soul impulses and other subtle matters. As far as subtle movements of my soul are concerned, I will tell you about them. My soul has an idea in my dreams that the only reality that exists in the market is support/resistance levels (or rather zones). Candid calls them potential pits, but the terms are not important. What's important is that it's the only real thing, everything else is made up by people. And so my main activity was to find an adequate model of these very levels. I did not like the linear regression channel model. Firstly, it is linear, and I don't believe in linearity in the market. Secondly, it does not allow to estimate the probability of a breakout/breakout. Thirdly, it does not allow to estimate the lifetime of a channel. Now it seems to me that densifications of wipes are such a model. As I said before, it is non-linear. It allows you to estimate the rebound probability as a relative density of the mashups. Finally, it allows you to estimate the lifetime as the dissolution time of the tourniquet. In general, I understand your irony very well, but it seems to me there is a lot to discuss. In turn, also, please don't be offended. Moreover, given the mass of ideas expressed here and almost zero practical efficiency, I quite understand you :)
Parabellum appreciated the humour. I had never heard of a donkey. I've heard of a chimpanzee. It's a more intelligent creature than a donkey.
Nevertheless, analogy is not an argument. There are only two key points in my reasoning.
1) Fluxes are traces of fluxes, and they are distorted by the current situation and gradually forgotten. I hope this is obvious to one and all.
2) Flat is a key element for the analysis and understanding of the market. It is not so obvious, but it is acceptable.
Everything else follows from here. So I have explained the movements of my donkey's tail. And while remaining standing on solid ground. Not involving soul impulses and other subtle matters. As far as subtle movements of my soul are concerned, I will tell you about them. My soul has an idea in my dreams that the only reality that exists in the market is support/resistance levels (or rather zones). Candid calls them potential pits, but the terms are not important. What's important is that it's the only real thing, everything else is made up by people. And so my main activity was to find an adequate model of these very levels. I did not like the linear regression channel model. Firstly, it is linear, and I don't believe in linearity in the market. Secondly, it does not allow to estimate the probability of a breakout/breakout. Thirdly, it does not allow to estimate the lifetime of a channel. Now it seems to me that densifications of wipes are such a model. As I said before, it is non-linear. It allows you to estimate the rebound probability as a relative density of the mashups. Finally, it allows you to estimate the lifetime as the dissolution time of the tourniquet. In general, I understand your irony very well, but it seems to me there is a lot to discuss. In turn, also, please don't be offended. Moreover, given the mass of ideas expressed here and almost zero practical efficiency, I quite understand you :)
The point is that these linear regression channels (or lines) should be plotted from true (tipping) points of the chart, not just anywhere.
And if you draw a lot of such channels of different timeframes, you can get something really interesting, you can see the trend crossovers, the boundaries of a possible bounce...
You can set up millions of them... :) But it won't do you any good, because they are not connected with important points on the chart, they just hang around by themselves with a lag.
As for linear regressions: still, imho, trends are linear in fact. That is, they may be non-linear, but they collapse before this non-linearity becomes noticeable.
I wonder how you drew them, eugenk? There are only eight graphical buffers.
Here's an idea. I'm going to build FFT masks instead of ordinary ones. Their extrema are already pegged to chart extrema. There will be no lag but redrawing at the right end of the chart will appear. If there are hundreds of these "bags", perhaps something can be done.
Candid, alas , in order to pick the required coefficients, I'm afraid it will take quite a long time (take bars). And in the time it takes to collect the bars, the market parameters will change. Unfortunately, this question constantly arises in my mind. I think everybody does. It's non-stationarity, damn it... :(
Regarding linear regressions, yes, of course. Everything in the world is linear to a first approximation. Elementary differential calculus is by and large linearisation theory. And of course trends can also be considered linear, for they collapse faster than they accumulate significant non-linearity. Here I agree 100%. What I dislike is not the linear regression itself (that would be silly, because one should use the tool or not use it, not like it or not), but the way it is used in forex. For example when an uptrend linear channel is built based on two highs and one low. When I see such a picture I want to take the author by the neck and give him a good rubbing in his own channel like a naughty puppy :)))))) And that's how line channels are usually built... It has been quite rightly pointed out above that the success of linear regression channels, depends on what extrema are chosen. It is the RIGHT extrema that need to be chosen. This is very similar to Elliott waves. There too, success and failure depends on the RIGHT choice of a wave division. Elliot's theory is a wonderful thing. An experienced wave-guide will explain to you elementary any event in the market. Except, alas and ah, it's ALREADY an event that has happened. I'm afraid this is exactly what suffers from the use of linear regression in forex. And worst of all, it cannot be eliminated PRINCIPALLY. In order to reliably build a linear regression channel it is necessary to gather a certain amount of extrema. It cannot be built based on three extrema... And while you are gathering them, the trend may die. Again non-stationarity! That is why I can think of no other solution other than building trends by EACH bar, rather than by extrema. And this inevitably leads to abandoning the linear model :( Sad. But what can one do. Nobody said it would be easy. And no one has strictly proven that Man is created for happiness :)
Mathemat, I'm a good goose. You said "A" and now you're "B" : ))))). You draw such a picture not with an indicator but with a template. I downloaded ready-made templates from http://www.community.finlist.org/showthread.php?t=2053 but somehow I forgot to post them here. But every cloud has a silver lining. Being ashamed, I wrote a small script which creates these templates. And for every taste. So if you're interested in the subject, you can experiment. Take the file from here, put it into \expert\scripts\ directory, compile and run it. The template goes in the \experts\files\ directory. On the graphic, you just select "Load Template" and load it from the \experts\files\ directory. The pictures are quite interesting. Maybe there really is something to it... The funny thing is that the best results come from simple SMAs. I was actually thinking that EMA would be better. So I can't say, if there is sense in replacing simple wizards with FFT_MA. In any case, I have provided such a possibility in my script.
Mathemat, I'm a good goose. You said "A" and now you're "B" :))))) It's not an indicator that draws this picture, it's a template. I downloaded ready-made templates from http://www.community.finlist.org/showthread.php?t=2053 and somehow forgot to post them here. But every cloud has a silver lining. Being ashamed, I wrote a small script which creates these templates. And for every taste. So if you're interested in the subject, you can experiment. Take the file from here, put it into \expert\scripts\ directory, compile and run it. The template goes in the \experts\files\ directory. On the graphic, you just select "Load Template" and load it from the \experts\files\ directory. The pictures are quite interesting. Maybe there really is something to it... The funny thing is that the best results come from simple SMAs. I was actually thinking that EMA would be better. So, I can't say, if there is sense in replacing simple wizards by FFT_MA. In any case, I have provided such a possibility in my script.
The beauty is indescribable. I've seen similar pictures, but it's great when it's on the instrument I love. Thank you.
Yes, I immediately thought of this - if the spectrum in a series of sounds, then each currency and each period will have its own music!
P.S. You can not look long - you can become a fool!
I have also decided to join in. Here is a link to a similar trading systemhttp://www.kroufr.ru/forum/index.php/topic,5069.0.html
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Now, about what stopped your humble servant's eyes on this sub. If we abstract away from philosophical reasoning of the author (some of which are simply ridiculous and absurd), the essence of the method comes to the following. We build a set of fobs (MA - moving average) with periods from 2 to 1000 and step for example 3. It turns out a very nice (especially if you color them in different colours) picture resembling a ruler image of a surface. The author doesn't look at each mask individually, but at "bundles". I.e. areas of densification of the dummies. And he interprets them as possible market reversal zones. The author is of course a philosopher, and therefore he is on fire. I highly recommend that you read the collection of his articles above. Of course there is something to laugh at, but sometimes by the baby's mouth speaks the Truth. But let's try to analyze the author's idea from the common sense point of view. So, the first. When do the mashes of different periods thicken? If somebody of knife and axe workers has worked with them, it's clear for him, that the swells condense on a flat. Now what happens when there is a trend? Obviously the flappers, while remaining condensed, will reach for it. If that statement isn't obvious, just look at the pictures in this collection of articles and it will become clear to you. Bottom line, my main statement is that the densifications of the flaps of various periods are the artifacts of previous flaps, modified by the current market situation . Let's see what follows from this. Here, in the "stochastic resonance" thread, many afftarians have stated that the key market condition is a flat. The key is not in the sense that the market is flat 70% of the time (which is a rough lie), but in the sense that the flat is a stable (relative) state and trends are nothing but transitions from one stable state to another. After some considerations I agree with this statement 100%. Let's return to tendency planimetry and pops. So, the densifications of wipes carry information about former steady states of the market, gradually forgetting it and adapting it to the current market situation. It turns out quite an adequate model of the market with memory. Indeed, the market remembers its stable states. But gradually they are forgotten and replaced by new ones. By the way, it also describes the seller/buyer model. A person remembers that some time ago a product was sold at a price. But time goes by. The price of this product changes. Let's say for certain that it is going up. But the person remembers the good old days, and therefore psychologically expects the price to be lower than the actual price (crowding of bags under the price chart). If the price decreases, the reasoning is similar. However when estimating the current price (pardon for a pun) the person makes a correction for the change of price in time. Now let the price stabilize at a new level. Obviously the person will get used to it and exactly with it he/she will start to estimate the current price, when it starts to change again. And one last thing. As a rule the mathematicians describe the trends by linear regression channels. I have always been a bit annoyed by this fact. In fact, the market is not obliged to be linear. Linearity is a human invention in order to avoid more complicated non-linear models. And by constructing linear regression channels, we inevitably get errors. In the trend planimetry method, the "harnesses" are quite clearly non-linear, but nevertheless quite smooth. Would it be better to try to predict just them ? In general, I would like to hear from the gentlemen of fortune an opinion on the thoughts expressed here. The method interests me. And it seems to me that it really describes a kind of reality.