Trading strategies without StopLoss - page 9
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And why have you decided that the probability of winning 50/50 with a profit of three times the stop loss has a negative mathematical expectation?
The original phrase to my reasoning was:
"A 50/50 guess, all other things being equal, always leads to a loss over a long enough time interval. No MM can help here."
The keyword here is "all other things being equal" - i.e. equal stoploss and takeprofit.
If your system initially gives 50/50 for a profit three times the loss, then you must be a billionaire.
Unfortunately, in this case the probability is not 50/50, but about three times worse.
I'm sorry, but if we have outcomes of 3 3 3 -10 3 3 3 -10 3 3 3 -10... for example, the MO is negative, but we'll get the MM in the + with these statistics. It's just an example.
The original phrase to my reasoning was:
"A 50/50 guess, all other things being equal, always leads to a loss over a long enough time interval. No MM can help here."
The keyword here is: "all else being equal" - that is equal stoploss and takeprofit.
If your system initially gives 50/50 for profit three times the amount of loss, then you must be a billionaire.
Unfortunately, in this case the probability is not 50/50, but about three times worse.
So I've already told you several times that the profit is several times greater than the stop loss, and you're telling me that stop and profit are equal.
I repeat, I do not want to convince you of anything, but if you start a discussion, you should at least read carefully what your opponent writes.
I wrote above: "....That's because everything is based on simple mathematics, even if you just guess the direction with a 50/50 probability, you will end up in the black with a sensible loss limitation, and if the loss+spread+commission is much smaller than the profit. This only works if you have a take profit several times the stop loss, otherwise it won't work and only increasing the number of guesses of the right direction will help."
TP is not a constant, i.e. closing trades by it is more of an exception than a rule.
That's why TP over SL is only theoretical, in practice it's rarely achievable.
TP is not a constant, i.e. closing trades on it is more of an exception than a rule.
That's why TP over SL is only theoretical, in practice it is rarely achievable(
In practice, it is always achievable 100% of the time. If the anticipated stop loss to profit is approximately equal, then you should not try to enter the market, you can skip such entry and wait for the entry with a normal ratio.
You should enter themarket not by time or by mood, but by calculation. The first action before entering the market is to calculate the stop, and if it is big, you can not look further. If the stop is acceptable, we look at the target, if the target is comparable to a stop of at least 3/1, we enter, if not, we skip the entry. You don't have to be in the market all the time, if there are no entries or they are lousy, it's better to wait instead of choosing the best from the worst. Entries are best made from a stop and not from something else. If you trade intraday and the stop is more than 30pp, it just shows that one does not understand where one is at all.
Could you show me how?
I must answer that if the outcome is random, yes, but in fact in different processes can be repeated, and here, for example after a positive outcome on the third transaction does not enter
>>I'm sorry but if we have outcomes of 3 3 3 -10 3 3 3 -10 3 3 3 -10... for example we have a negative MO but we can get a positive MO at these stats. it's just an example
1. Show on your sequence how it works.
2. Show on sequences with shifted start (because it is not known a priori at which point in time your MM strategy will start):
3 3 3 -10 3 3 -10 3 3 3 -10...
3 3 -10 3 3 -10 3 3 3 -10...
3 -10 3 3 -10 3 3 3 -10...
-10 3 3 -10 3 3 3 -10...
3 3 -10 3 3 3 -10...
3 -10 3 3 3 -10...
-10 3 3 3 -10...
etc.
How many of these sequences will give a positive result?
What will be the average of all results?
Hi all, here's a topic
All who trade on the real have heard from the "guru" teachers and from "smart books" that "trading without stops is a direct route to failure".
But at the same time (the same teachers don't tell us anything about it for some reason) SL (triggered) leads to a direct loss even if the price moves in the direction we want(
So what are the trading ideas/options without SL, but with risk control (drawdowns, etc.)
Combination trading and trading on different accounts (competitive, for example) is too simple (understandable, obvious), what are the other ways (approaches, methods, techniques)?
I am interested for: MT4, MT5; within one broker/DC
Rustam Eivaov
SL in almost any trading strategy is mandatory! SL should be placed only for real levels!!!
I'm going to draw you so many levels that you won't know which one to bet on, and you'll end up with a trade without a stop.)
The levels need to be drawn correctly, this is what determines the success of the trade.