Once again, it's about the eternal: trend/flat. - page 16
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It is very important for any strategy to identify the trend/float in a timely manner. One way or another, the effectiveness of the TS depends on it.
It is clear that on different TFs at the same point in time there may be both in the sense that a particular EA writer puts it, but let's try to talk more specifically - how to determine the f/o on the current TF? Who defines t/f? Or many don't bother to do it?
I approach the notion of flat as an arrangement of candlesticks one after another in a horizontal channel, it is very abstract, because many questions arise such as "how much should candlesticks fill the channel to be able to talk about a flat" etc.
At the moment I do it elementary - timeframes, say, 00:00-8:00 - flat movements, 08:00-22:00 - trend movements (one continuous directed movement or with changes of direction several times), 22:00-00:00 - flat. But this simplified method is very approximate, even though it improves indices of TS, but does not allow to use it on TF older than H1.
I am also thinking of playing with BB (Bollinger) to determine the TF, but do not know how to formalize it.
Please speak up.
Incorrect logical assumption when determining the flat, when working in a flat, some traders use the Stochastik (by close), when the candles are in the range of the previous candle, what will the indicator show?
it is not a flat, it is range holding, flat is not a standardized quantity in the market, in one case it is 230 pips and in the other 500 pips (flat channel), i.e., to draw a border between a flat and other derivatives
it needs to define the channel size and the history volume. Searching for the structure of a flat on M1 is not optimal; a flat is formed at some significant levels, it has some internal content (wave theory) that is also structural.
Incorrect logical assumption about the definition of a flat, when working in a flat, some traders use the Stochastik (by close), in a situation where the candles are in the range of the previous candle, what will the indicator show?
i.e. to make a distinction between a flat and other derivatives, i.e. to distinguish a flat from another 500 points
We need to decide on the size of the channel and the amount of history . I think that the search for the structure of a flat on M1 is not optimal, the flat is formed at some significant levels, it has an internal content (wave theory) that is also structural.
It does not matter how you define t/f, it is important that the program can do it, i.e. strictly formalized rules.
I've already given the formalisation of a flat, for me the question is solved. As for some traders, some of them pick their noses in front of the ladies, so what now? - Should we follow their example?
It does not matter how you define t/f, it is important that the software can do it, which means clearly formalised rules.
I've already given the formalisation of a flat, for me the question is solved. As for some traders, some of them pick their noses in front of the ladies, so what now? - Should we follow their example?
You could have provided a link to the post that described the rules of formalization. Not the scientific method is a matter of faith - the earth on three elephants standing on turtles, for this "case" they cut wood, cut paper, print the "map of the world,
The scientific method is a methodology - a proof base based on experimental examples.
The answer to Andrew Dick's specific question:"Take a 100 mio depo, work 0.01 lots and bingo! - the case is in the bag? will immediately become a profitable losing strategy?" supplemented by the following:"That's what you're talking about - less risk, so entry directions don't matter. We take a random system with a huge deposit and a minimum lot, from that the less risk, the more efficient the system?-Because as you say, entry directions become unimportant."
Answer:
1. I didn't say that losing strategies would become profitable. It was you who drew that conclusion, but I understand the nature of that conclusion. If you disregard the time factor, i.e. wait time for a takeout to trigger to infinity and have enough deposit to wait out a drawdown, then you are right - a losing position will become profitable. But in such a TIME interval it is difficult to talk about a strategy. One trade may last for decades. :) I doubt you don't understand that.
2. Your conclusion about the relationship between the level of risk and the effectiveness of the system also makes me ambiguous. Firstly, you again ignore the time factor, and secondly, for the effectiveness you take the number of deals with a positive result.
3. Yes, when trading in a channel I think the direction of entry is not important (not critical) in terms of triggering stops. If it really is a channel, the price will return to the opening level of your position, and you will be able to close the position without incurring a loss. Also, trading in a channel implies certain rules for opening positions, namely, opening a position at a BACKWARDS from the level. So buying on the upper limit of the channel is not wise. But even if you violate the channel rules and buy at the upper boundary of the channel, you are risking zero equity to close that position. In this context, I am talking about the independence of the direction of the open position, i.e. a mistake in the direction is not critical for trading.
Have I now answered your question, have I not dodged it?
The answer to Andrew Dick's specific question:"Take a 100 mio depo, work 0.01 lots and bingo! - the case is in the bag? will immediately become a profitable losing strategy?" supplemented by the following:"That's what you're talking about - less risk, so entry directions don't matter. We take a random system with a huge deposit and a minimum lot, from that the less risk, the more efficient the system?-Because as you say, entry directions become unimportant."
Answer:
1. I didn't say that losing strategies would become profitable. It was you who drew that conclusion, but I understand the nature of that conclusion. If you disregard the time factor, i.e. wait time for a takeout to trigger to infinity and have enough deposit to wait out a drawdown, then you are right - a losing position will become profitable. But in such a TIME interval it is difficult to talk about a strategy. One trade may last for decades. :) I doubt you don't understand that.
2. Your conclusion about the relationship between the level of risk and the effectiveness of the system also makes me ambiguous. Firstly, you again ignore the time factor, and secondly, for the effectiveness you take the number of deals with a positive result.
3. Yes, when trading in a channel I think the direction of entry is not important (not critical) in terms of triggering stops. If it really is a channel, the price will return to the opening level of your position, and you will be able to close the position without incurring a loss. Also, trading in a channel implies certain rules for opening positions, namely, opening a position at a BACKWARDS from the level. So buying on the upper limit of the channel is not wise. But even if you violate the channel rules and buy at the upper boundary of the channel, you are risking zero equity to close that position. In this context, I am talking about the independence of the direction of the open position, i.e. a mistake in the direction is not critical for trading.
Now did I answer your question, didn't I dodge it?
No, you haven't, and you know it.
You say on the one hand that the lower the risk per trade, the less important the direction of entry is. On the other hand you talk about trading in a flat, but you don't give your FORMALIZED definition of a flat.
I e didn't make anything up or add anything, I asked a question based on your own "readings".
And so, on the topic of the branch, "How do you determine at this point in time, is it a flat or a trend?" - I understand that now you'll start answering something like "it all depends on the current situation", "if you feel something wrong", "it all depends on the risks" and the like, but, please gather yourself together and answer, how do you determine whether the system is in a flat or trend at this point in time?
Excuse me for asking a humble question. Are you a real trader?
I could provide a link to the post where the rules of formalization are spelled out. Not the scientific method is a matter of faith - the earth on three elephants standing on turtles, for this "case" they cut wood, cut paper, print the "map of the world",
The scientific method is a methodology - a proof base based on experimental examples.
Re-read the thread again, "repetition is the mother of learning" and there are not so many pages yet. Three formalizable approaches to the definition of t/f are given in this branch, including mine.
I have an idea of a flat, and the conclusions can be grouped together in one place, instead of sending sect followers (sesta - doctrine, the way, in Latin) to study all the material.
)) Today I went out on the street (on the road) and a girl of about 8/10 years old is carrying a huge pile of snow, I asked her jokingly, "Where are you taking it from? From school, she said ..................
Imagine 2 km to school and a child rolls a heap of snow over herself! How's this for a picture))))
Where I'm going with this!
That girl's right. And all this (talk of a flatulence/trend) is complete nonsense.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and trading strategy testing
And again about the eternal: trend/float.
Alexey Kozitsyn, 2016.10.26 10:53
You want something like this:
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and trading strategy testing
And again about the eternal: trend/float.
Andrey Dik, 2016.10.26 11:38
Built a hand-to-hand. Something like this: at least 80% of candlesticks should enter the channel, while the channel width should not exceed the average candlesticks height by more than 10%. This is as an example of flat parameters.
Accordingly, at the opening of the zero bar we see whether we are in an outflow or not. Actually, it is important to define whether we are flat or not. That is how I understand it.
But your variant is also interesting.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and strategy testing
Again about the eternal theme: trend/float.
Veniamin Skrepkov, 2016.10.26 14:18
After the "movement" the market forms the range it is interested in. At extrema (flat) the percentage of false breakdowns is high and the "box" chart plotted against the extrema
If you don't know what the price is, you may start a distorted picture, it's better to look inside.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and trading strategies testing
And again about the eternal: trend/float.
Uladzimir Izerski, 2016.10.26 15:10
Here's the current situation with M5 pound. The program is marking itself.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
And again about the eternal: trend/float.
Yousufkhodja Sultonov, 2016.10.27 04:18
Try using the T/F indicator https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/97569, if the indicator is near zero - yawlett, otherwise - trend. See how easily it does the job: