FOMC 21.09.2016 - page 7

 

This is MT4, on five pairs


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And if you buy on the daily timeframe, it is not quite clear either - you can see from the chart that the price is pulling away from the 200 SMA upwards, but on the open daily bar and it is still within the 100 SMA/200 SMA zone, which is a multidirectional price movement zone. That is, if the price breaks through 1.1149 on the closed bar, there will be a reversal to the area of the primary downtrend on the price chart, and if it breaks through 1.1283 up on the closed bar, the primary uptrend will resume.



Therefore, I think he is referring to intraday trading.
 
If that is the H4 timeframe, then the price is still in the area below the 200 SMA (i.e. there is still, excuse me, a "horse on the move").

If it is M15, then yes - a breakout to the uptrend, but a multi-directional breakout, i.e. it might as well be a sell:


 
That's it, the topic starter won't be convinced.
Fundamental analysis without technical analysis is just text, better than reading newspapers ... (going to bed).
 
Sergey Golubev:
And if we take a buy in the daily timeframe, we will see that the price goes up from the 200 SMA, but it is still in the 100 SMA/200 SMA zone, which is a multidirectional price movement zone. That is, if the price breaks through 1.1149 on the closed bar, there will be a reversal to the area of the primary downtrend on the price chart, and if it breaks through 1.1283 up on the closed bar, the primary uptrend will resume.



Therefore, I think he is referring to intraday trading.

It all reminds of meteorologists' forecasts ) It can only be predicted somewhere in the Gobi Desert, where you know that in the dry season it will be hot during the day, freezing at night and the chance of rain is vanishingly small. There are statistics about the seasons and you can rely on them.

The market is too unpredictable and one cannot seriously predict its movements. Not even in the long term. Who could have predicted the fall in oil prices a few years ago? No one, although many are now cleverly explaining the reasons in hindsight.

Of course, this is purely my opinion.