A high-tech SME scam. Trader = victim? - page 2
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This is how I see the secret scheme:
CME has created a robot that works on all of their platforms at the same time. The robot places huge volumes of limiters in the betting market, closing off the ability of regular traders to move the price. Traders open their positions and put stops. The robot sees them. When it opens enough positions to one of the sides, it makes deals by itself for hundreds of contracts and moves the price against traders positions, emptying their pockets. At the same time it creates a lot of fictitious deals of small volume, so that algorithmic traders programs cannot calculate real volume and open interest in the market.
(I tried to calculate it myself, but realised it was impossible).
Don't make a conspiracy theory out of nothing just because you don't understand something. Better to figure it out and use it )
Right. I really don't understand a lot about this topic, but after months of watching price behaviour, the tumblr, the tape, and having created a program that counts trades, I am left with the conclusion that the game is not entirely transparent.
1. CME is a corporation. So it makes money from some kind of activity. What kind of activity?
2. CME has all data on traders' positions.
3. The CME creates the trading platforms.
4. CME carries out clearing. (bringing the parties together to make a deal). In doing so, there is a legal way of being the counterparty to all transactions. This is the easiest way of clearing. You do not have to find another trader for the one who wants to make a trade at the moment. It is the fastest way to execute a trade and the most reliable.
5. Super movements and huge volumes of limiters in weakly volatile markets.
These are the questions begging my bewilderment.
Perhaps there is someone who can explain and dispel my suspicions.
Settlement. Might as well open positions buying or selling notes. In fact, the trader does not get a contract for future delivery of the goods and cannot buy anything at a fixed price. Why it is still called futures trading I do not know.
I think you are confused about something. Commodity futures are deliverable, settlement there interest rates, stock indices, etc.
The jumps can be caused by the expiry date of futures and options. In general, you need to read a book on the subject to make some conclusions.
Plus as far as I know there is trading in the pit it is on the exchange itself and through the electronic platform Globex, probably on the section of these sessions there is slippage.
Right. I really do not understand a lot about this subject, but after months of watching the price behaviour, the stack, the strip, and after I created a program that calculates trades, I am left with the conclusion that the game is not completely transparent.
1. CME is a corporation. So it makes money from some kind of activity. What kind of activity?
2. CME has all data on traders' positions.
3. The CME creates the trading platforms.
4. CME carries out clearing. (bringing the parties together to make a deal). In doing so, there is a legal way of being the counterparty to all transactions. This is the easiest way of clearing. You do not have to find another trader for the one who wants to make a trade at the moment. It is the fastest way to execute a trade and the most reliable.
5. Super movements and huge volumes of limiters in weakly volatile markets.
These are the issues that generate my bewilderment.
Perhaps there is someone who can explain and dispel my suspicions.
The exchange makes money on commissions, hence one can assume how to increase commissions, increase trading volume. Where there is high volume, there is a build-up of stops or bids, that is where the market can swing.
This is not new, Elder has it in his book.
I think you are confused about something. Commodity futures are deliverable, settlement there interest rates, stock indices, etc.
The jumps can be caused by the expiry date of futures and options. In general, you need to read a book on the subject to make some conclusions.
Plus as far as I know there is trading in the pit it is on the exchange itself and through the electronic platform Globex, I guess there is slippage on the section of these sessions.
I don't deny my lack of knowledge.
About futures - so it's a sham. Traders don't get contracts for the price of a commodity and don't undertake to buy it by a certain date, as the contract should. The real price of a commodity does not jump from traders' trades on the CME, otherwise the factories buying grain or corn would go bankrupt. Similarly, you can open buy or sell positions by making trades on blank pieces of paper.
In fact, the essence of the game is that a trader makes a bet with another trader on whether the price will go up or down. By opening a position he loses influence on the market and passively waits for what other traders standing behind him in line will do next. Their actions will determine whether the trader gains or loses.
What about the futures, which are contracts for a fixed price for the goods at which the buyer agrees to buy them? The traders in the CME are not buying any commodity, and the price of that commodity is not really jumping as shown in the CME charts, which only reflect the traders' own actions and nothing more.
However, even such a simple game, which is covered with such a layer of illusions and misconceptions would be more honest, if there were no one who manages the whole process in his own interest and sees everything ... ))) IMHO
The exchange earns on commissions, hence it can be assumed how to increase commissions, to increase trading volume. Where there is high volume, there is an accumulation of stops or bids, that's where the market can swing.
This is not new, Elder has it in his book.
Well, it's kind of weak for such a corporation to exist on commissions only... They sell quotes. But that's not good either. I was paying $30 a month for CME quotes. Some data was more expensive, but do many people buy them? I don't think so... But it makes sense to pump the market if you play yourself.
I just have a question for you: what is the approximate value of 1-minute maize quotes over 10 years?
And delivery corn futures
http://www.invest-rating.ru/encyclopedia.php?id=263
Are there people who can clearly explain - why in a weakly volatile market put huge amounts of limiters in the cup? Who does this? Why are there hundreds of contracts traded every day? Who owns them?
If there are a lot of limiters in the market and few traders on the market, then the deals with hundreds of contracts can be performed only by the owner of these limiters. He is the one who moves the price, because the others are too poor to buy a hundred contracts and raise it by at least a point. So they open positions where he holds them. Then he moves the price. Their positions are closed. Which one of them makes money?
I just have a question for you: what is the approximate value of 1-minute maize quotes over 10 years?
And delivery corn futures
http://www.invest-rating.ru/encyclopedia.php?id=263
Very good article. Only it diverges from practice. It is clearly not the grain producers, wholesale buyers, processors and exporters and importers who trade on the GLOBEX electronic corn marketplace, because you can't really get a futures contract on the electronic marketplace . It is not held in a depository like a stock. If you bought a futures contract and did not sell it by the expiry date, your transaction will automatically be closed and you will not face a lawsuit from the seller. The broker will also tell you that futures contracts are not supported for delivery. The speculators who trade on the CME are the same speculators who, as the article says, "stand aside".
I think manufacturers, factories, exporters and other serious buyers and sellers have separate terms for deals... And the price of a commodity does not jump by hundreds of points in a matter of minutes.