The fate of the world's currencies in the wake of the demise of the dollar. - page 92
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23.02.2022 the exchange rate was 80.82, today it's 98.25... no, no, it's fine, it's not a collapse...
From an old anecdote:
...
- But I'm still alive!
- And we're not there yet.
From an old anecdote:
...
- But I'm still alive!
- And we're not there yet.
maybe a sausage will fly by,
the thought that there are still miracles,
even nicer than a sausage.
23.02.2022 the exchange rate was 80.82, today 98.25... no, no, it's ok, it's not a collapse...
but on MY?
;)
Sibirqk, I congratulate you and myself and all those who supported our discussion regarding the future fate of the USD. To everyone who shared our opinion that it (the USD), if not the end, will definitely lose its status. I predicted a horizon of 10 years. But it is happening much faster than that. Of course it will remain on the world stage, for now, but it will lose status, if that is not already the case. Of course the opponents of our opinion will say, the size of the price counts in quid anyway. I agree. But this is only the beginning. We have not yet created a yardstick. But it is only a matter of time. And practice shows that such events can happen much faster than assumptions.
Also, I would like to wish our opponents to be more objective. Do more monitoring of the current situation and think things through, draw conclusions. There is no need to salivate to prove your unfounded opinion. Experts don't just exist on TV. They are present right here and now. I open a 40 year old whisky. I drink to correct predictions and to wishing our opponents to become smarter. This is neither an accusation nor a criticism. Anyone can be mistaken.
Congratulations to all who have been waiting. The time has come.
As Buffett said, "Patience is rewarded."
Oh, it's alive! I'd forgotten all about it. Frankly, I don't quite agree with you that this is the collapse of the dollar system of the universe. It's more like the first symptoms. Yes, it is happening a little bit faster than I thought four years ago - due to the pandemic, which was impossible to foresee, the US national debt reached the psychological threshold of $30 trillion already in early 22nd while I thought it would happen only in 24th-25th. The events around Ukraine were also difficult to foresee, at least in '18. The restrictions on Russia that followed were a huge discredit to the dollar's status as a reserve currency. But these, too, are only the first symptoms of future turmoil. The fact is that there are essentially few instruments for investment other than the dollar right now. The problem with renminbi reserves is that the renminbi is not a hard currency. There are two opposing tendencies in China: on the one hand, currency control is needed to protect the economy from shocks; on the other hand, it is gradually becoming a brake on it, and it is clear that sooner or later the renminbi will become the hard currency. That will be the beginning of the end of dollar hegemony in the world. I still think that a free conversion of the yuan will not happen before the 25th. Although the battle-brutal events in the neighbouring country will probably speed up the process a bit.
The problem is not the absolute numbers, but the change in ratios. The dollar's status as the world's reserve currency gave the US economy a huge free loan from the rest of the world. If this status begins to be transferred to the yuan, for example, the value of this change will flow from the U.S. to China. Inflation in the states would increase and the standard of living would fall; in China, it would be the other way around.
23.02.2022 the rate was 80.82, today it's 98.25... No, no, it's OK, it's not a collapse...
The rouble is largely determined by the price of oil. With the current price and the Central Bank tools involved - interest rate, export restrictions, sale of currency by exporters, etc., another thing is that such a rate would be very unprofitable for exporters, so I think the Central Bank would let the rouble strengthen to a psychological "pre-war" level, somewhere around 75 p/$ and then gradually start to loosen its controls and lower the interest rate to keep it around that figure.
Yet you keep being told about dreams of moving the dollar, and you've got your ears open. But you are unlikely to get the joke.
The problem is not the absolute numbers, but the change in ratios. The dollar's status as the world's reserve currency gave the US economy a huge free loan from the rest of the world. If this status begins to be transferred to the yuan, for example, the value of this change will flow from the U.S. to China. In the states, inflation will rise and the standard of living will fall; in China, on the contrary.
What is surprising is the failure to understand the simple fact that "there is no such thing as a free lunch". This status hurts the national economy - see for example the Triffin paradox. This was the reason for the creation of SDRs, which will sooner or later replace the dollars. It's time to stop with the "inevitable collapse of the dollar" shamelessness -- it's really lowering the level of the forum.
there is such a theory of relativity........
Let's say...
oil costs $200.
let's calculate two possibilities:
a) 1p = $1
b) 1r = $100
in which case oil:
a) 200p
b) 2p
now, the rouble is strengthening on MOEX
the only place where you can take rubles and use them to buy energy carriers
Why have they imposed sanctions against them? (SWIFT, VISA, MasterCard)