a trading strategy based on Elliott Wave Theory - page 299
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Кстати, в таком виде читать стейтмент крайне неудобно. Было бы лучше его опубликовать в виде отчета. В MT кажется, такая функция есть, сохраняет в виде html, но могу и ошибаться.
grasn no matter what evidence you put out, it's still
the question of predicting markets has been, is, and always will be open!
p.s. it's very hard to believe in the impossible and
it is impossible to believe in the very difficult. :)))
Regards,
Alex Niroba
I believe you. For the simple reason that I firmly believe that nothing is impossible.
I'll only add - I've decided for myself that if I can't make an alternative, I'll leave this market. For my experience (even with the ability to stop in time) and observations of the participants show that there really are no winners, that would check it just need to stay in the game for a while longer.
I think there are different things mixed up here. A trader prepares tools and equipment for himself to work in the market. Or uses other traders' tools. For MT this tooling may be of three types: Expert Advisors, indicators and scripts. Script is something disposable, like a hammer :). Expert Advisor is a kind of robot. An indicator is a measuring instrument. If you don't like others, it doesn't mean you don't need an indicator as a category. It just makes more sense to implement one part of the work as an indicator, the other as an Expert Advisor and the third as a script.
Another question - are there any winners? It's a complicated question :). But in the end, the market is a rather interesting object, and it can be considered a hobby. By the way, more intellectual than playing in a casino. And the adrenaline is not less :)
Now I get it, the only thing that confuses me is the 50%. It doesn't seem very logical to go in the opposite direction at that probability value. 53% is no better. The idea of accompanying lots by probability of reversal is of course interesting, except that you need probability on probability. Joke. It should work well if when approaching an actual reversal, the probability calculated by the system increases as well, I'm curious, is that so? :о)
You are too used to working with history. I suggest you devote time to learning the on-board neural network :), by observing the real-time charts a little, but regularly. In realtime, you can only talk about an actual reversal when it is too late to enter on the move. The system can detect the most probable level of reversal, but it would be a big mistake to call it an actual reversal even in my mind :) . Naturally, the probability of reversal should be higher for the most probable level :), but the market does not really care about it. The idea of an early entry is to avoid losing a position entirely if the market turns before it reaches the "right" levels, and the 50% figure ... Replace it with 80%, it's just an example. In principle, of course I was talking about an aggressive strategy. It's more conservative to get in after the fact. But if you have an ambush at 90% level and the market reverses at 89%, would that be fair? :). Moreover, when testing the "chase" strategy for the same length of history, the entry statistics will be many times less, that is, the result will be much less reliable. In fact, you may as well overclock thinking you're chasing the market and get caught up in a counter movement.
I meant these...
Not sophisticated formulas... apparently all brilliant is simple, or vice versa.
to Yurixx
Don't get upset, Sergei. I think Alex has got a typo too.
In p.3 you should read not "23 formulas", but "2-3 formulas". :-)))
Hi Yuri, I was just careless, Alex developed an automatic reaction to ps, something like a reflex. :о)
How are you getting on with the wavelets? After such a hectic publication, it all went quiet somehow.
The formulas are really simple and are, in fact, one formula by definition
any three crosses are connected by it. BUT !
Using these relations to check the correspondence between the wave constructions made for each of the crosses separately is a very sensible and constructive idea. The result should be a good, maybe even too strong, filter.
Alex, congratulations. When I read this from you for the first time, some pages ago, I appreciated it immediately.
On behalf and behalf of me, I express my approval. :-)
Wavelets are super, it's cool. That's what I've been missing in my life. :-)
I wish I had bothered to look up there earlier when I first saw the word.
I say this as a physicist with a little understanding of mathematics.
Wrestling with wavelets is another matter. :-))
In Matlab everything looks nice and counts fast. However, I need to understand all that to be able to 1) implement in MT all the calculation algorithms already implemented in Matlab. I don't see the need or expediency of interfacing the two systems. So everything must be done by hand. 2) Understand the intricacies of the approach, so as to be able to adapt it to my purposes with the greatest success.
As you know, wavelets offer a bunch of possibilities, on both a principle and practical level. You can only choose the best one by understanding what you're dealing with, or by conducting a huge amount of experimentation with each of them. As a theorist, I prefer the first option.
So, the plunge continues. Passed the 20 metre mark yesterday.
The mask and snorkel had to be replaced with a scuba tank.
Too bad the market is not waiting. So it's like in the cartoon "Wings, legs, tail". :-)))
I don't mix them, if you carefully re-read my posts, for example this one:
I will only add - I have decided for myself that if I cannot create an alternative, I will leave this market. For my experience (even taking into account the ability to stop in time) and observations of participants show that there really are no winners, what would check this need to just stay in the game for some time.
There is nothing about indicators and scripts. I have repeatedly written in my previous posts that this is my own opinion. Previously:
Roughly speaking, I meant all the files that can be found in the "indicators" branch in the hierarchical MT navigator window, and anything that might appear there as a result of creative activity. Again, this is my personal belief and experience. Doesn't mean at all that they are all (already written and to be written) bad. Not at all. It's just that I've come to understand that it's not the best one to use. And the best is yet to be developed. So, that's how it looks, at least optimistically and mysteriously. :o)
I have not said anything about the creators of indicators. I will try to explain that your statement "If you don't like others' ones - it doesn't mean you don't need an indicator as a category" is not true. I wrote it clearly: "it's not the best thing to use".
Another question - are there any winners? That's a tricky question :).
I just "happened" to get, in modern parlance, real statistics, plus my own observations - there are no winners. They win battles, but they lose the war, and completely. And I'm on the plus side, but somehow the pessimism came on its own.
It's just a slightly different way of looking at probability. :o))))))))))))
But in the end the market is an interesting enough object and it can be seen as a hobby. By the way, more intellectual than playing in a casino. And it gives you just as much adrenaline :)
You're right, it's easy to start (all conditions have been created) and very difficult to get out, even if the mind says it's not worth staying.
You are too used to working with history. I suggest you devote time to learning the on-board neural network :), by observing the real-time charts a little, but regularly.
I do this every working day and regularly check the on-board equipment for readiness.
In realtime, you can only talk about an actual reversal when it is too late to enter on the move. The system can detect the most probable level of reversal, but it would be a great mistake even to think of calling it an actual reversal :) .
I wasn't referring to the warning issued by the system, I was referring to the reversal by fact and matching the calculated probability to the fact that occurred (statistical, of course)
Naturally, for the most probable level the probability of reversal should be higher :), but the market generally doesn't care about it.
Then what is the point of your probability?
The idea of an early entry is to avoid losing a position entirely if the market reverses before it reaches the "right" levels, and the 50% figure ... Replace it with 80%, it's just an example.
I figured that out, except that the meaning may be different - deep down minus.
In principle, of course I was talking about an aggressive strategy. It's more conservative to get in after the fact. But if you have an ambush at 90% level and the market reverses at 89%, would that be fair? :). Moreover, when testing the "chase" strategy for the same length of history, the entry statistics will be many times less, that is, the result will be much less reliable. In fact, you may as well run up when you think you're chasing the market and hit a counter movement.
Yes, I was generally guided exactly by what you wrote, in this case trying not to think up all sorts of variations.
PS: don't mind me, I'm in a bad mood today and unfortunately I let others spoil it. :o)))
to Yurixx
20 meters is a good depth. You will need a bathyscaphe soon and do not forget about air supply. :о)))) I can assume that it is possible to implement conversions with possible variants in MT, but I'm afraid it will be a bit slow. Besides, integration with matlab will take you much less time than transferring the whole wavelet package to MT.
The only pity is that the market is not waiting. So it's like in the "wings, feet, tail" cartoon. :-)))
And where will it go during your experiments? And why do you have to trade all the time?
I will try to clarify that your statement "Just because you don't like someone else's doesn't mean you don't need the indicator as a category" is not correct. I thought I'd written clearly: "it's come to be understood that it's not the best thing to use".
Ok, I will formulate it in another way: working through MT4, everything that gives signals for entry/exit should be arranged as indicators. Consider it as a revelation ((C) grasn) :)
Then what is the point of your probability?
Actually, my eloquence was caused by the phrase if the probability calculated by the system increases when approaching the actual reversal - imho, it contains a gross error.
If we talk about probabilities, let's talk about the pivot zone. The probability of the reversal at a certain level is described by the probability density, while the probability that the price will not cross this level is described by its integral. This is the probability that makes sense to operate with. It does not necessarily have to be obtained from the model, it is more reliable to estimate it by gathering sufficient statistics in the tester.
The idea of an early entry is to avoid losing a position entirely if the market turns before it reaches the "right" levels, and the 50% figure ... Replace it with 80%, it's just an example.
I figured that out, except that the meaning might be different - a deep minus.
Are we speaking generally or about the system checked in the tester? If it is the latter, the resulting minus (i.e. margin call) will mean that the check has not been performed correctly. Well, you have to pay for mistakes :)
I assume that there are "invisible price channels", which are "filled with price" every second in the present time. Besides these price channels have a fractal structure, i.e. figures on one-minute periods are "building blocks" for five-minute periods, five-minute periods form similar figures on 15-minute periods but of bigger order, etc., i.e. half-seconds, hours, 4-hours, daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, semiannual and annual - all periods simultaneously form one of Elliott price figures.
The strategy is based on "building" price figures into the future.
What do you need to know?
- The description of these price figures, i.e. how many waves they consist of;
- relation of fibos between waves inside the figure;
- channels, in which these price figures develop;
- what figure can form after the current one;
- and also internal and external relations of fibos between figures;
The formation of "short-term" figures is greatly influenced by figures of the bigger order.
Entry points, stop-losses and take-profits depend on the type of pattern being formed.
I don't trade on any particular timeframe, i.e. I analyze all timeframes from one year to a minute at the same time
for the best entry point.
I carry out a global analysis of 28 currency pairs. For convenience I have unloaded all historical data into Excel, restored "lost" quotes, as well as added quarterly, semiannual and annual charts; to avoid confusion in the huge amount of quotes, I have assigned a colour to each v.p. To avoid confusion what chart is formed on the analyzed period, I mark each timeframe with its own colour, for example, on a monthly chart I am marking channels, fibo levels and all the marks in black, purple on a weekly chart, blue on a daily chart, etc.
It helps to clearly define the current price position in the forming chart, and it also gives
an opportunity to determine the future trend direction accurately.
I use 23 formulas to check the prediction.
Recently I have started to analyze securities - the major liquid stocks:
Sberbank, RAO UES, Gazprom, Lukoil, Sibneft, Tatneft, Rosneft, Transneft, etc.
and major indices: RTS, MICEX, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, etc.
Tested my strategy, it works on any financial instrument.
I want to analyze it manually, it is a very time consuming process, so I want to automate it.
Unfortunately I have not enough knowledge and experience in programming, I need
PROFESSIONAL HELP, one or two programmers, with good knowledge of MQL
and preferably (but not necessarily) with knowledge of the Wave Theory.
Help write an Expert Advisor!!!
If you can refine and program the strategy,
I think no one will remain financially disappointed $-)
My mail: Niroba@bk.ru
For fun please do not disturb.
Sincerely,
Alex Niroba
Regarding the air I've decided: I won't pop up. In case of trouble, I'll live there, on the gravel.
Integration with other tools, including dll, is not in my plans. Everything has to be implemented in MQL, by means of one or two interacting Expert Advisors. Even the external indicators are excluded. So far I haven't encountered any significant obstacles that prevent me from doing it. Neither speed nor capabilities of MQL create any limitations for me.
Of course it would be possible to convert the entire Matlab wavelet pack for MT, but why? That's why I need thorough understanding to find the best method and the most effective algorithm of its implementation, without getting bogged down by artistic frills. It's not a custom indicator when you need to provide the user with an opportunity to select the wavelet and other details. It's all much simpler - you just have to make such a little money printing machine. :-)))
If we talk about probabilities, let's talk about the pivot zone. The probability of the reversal at a certain level is described by the probability density, while the probability that the price will not cross this level is described by its integral. This is the probability that makes sense to operate with. It does not necessarily have to be obtained from the model, it is more reliable to estimate it by gathering sufficient statistics in the tester.
You of course know better, but where is the logic if you think that the statement ... when approaching the actual U-turn, the probability calculated by the system also increases is fundamentally wrong (I meant the probability of U-turn). In other words, the estimation of probability of reversal is not related to the reversal itself (whether it is a zone or a separate bar, doesn't matter), and when approaching the actual reversal, it can show anything? And from this fundamentally correct statement you build your strategy? It doesn't matter how you get that probability, by collecting statistics on reversals or by getting an empirical formula (again, after collecting and analyzing statistics).
to Yurixx
Integration with other tools, including dll, is not in my plans. Everything has to be implemented in MQL, by means of one or two interacting Expert Advisors. Even the external indicators are excluded. So far I haven't encountered any significant obstacles that prevent me from doing it. Neither performance nor capabilities of MQL create any limitations for me.
I'm gradually coming to the same conclusion that everything should be implemented in MQL. But there are speed limitations and it must be taken into account.
Of course I could redirect the entire Matlab wavelet pack to MT, but what for? That's why I need thorough understanding to find the best method and the most effective algorithm of its implementation, without getting bogged down by artistic frills. This is not a custom indicator, when you need to provide the user with an opportunity to choose the wavelet and other details.
Quite reasonable, but you just jumped on wavelets with such greed that I thought I'd need the whole package. :о)
It's all much simpler - you just have to make such a little money printing machine. :-)))
I specifically highlighted your quote for an extended response. I had already written several paragraphs, but ... I erased them all. Yuri, you're not the first who thinks so in general, and in particular, that wailets - this very machine. Although, it's all the remnants of yesterday's bad mood, sincerely, I wish you good luck.
PS: Don't forget to buy inks and paper for the typewriter, preferably not ...
to Alex Niroba
Sorry, I can not help you. I know wave theory and I read Glenn, but my understanding of MQL is still not that good.
At one time I liked this theory, as a former artist. But then, expanding my mind - I started to see more than one pattern on one and the same chart, and entirely different ones. I could never get rid of the hallucinations, which still haunt me.
Unfortunately, I will not be able to help you. Although I know the wave theory and have read Glenn, my MQL skills are not so good.
At one time I liked this theory, as a former artist. But then, expanding my mind - I started to see more than one pattern on one and the same chart, and entirely different ones. I could never get rid of the hallucinations, which still haunt me.
I wanted to ask you on what pips have you identified the patterns? On what timeframes?
Did you use the Informal Rules of Logic in doing so? (should understand the question,
if you have read Neely).
Did you check the correctness of the figures you built using the formulas?
The list of questions could go on and on, but I think that's enough, please answer these :)))))
Regards,
Alex Niroba
Hi Sergei ! Forgot to tell you.
That quote you specifically highlighted is an encrypted text of the deepest meaning.
The key to the code I've included in the text of the quote itself is its last 5 characters.
I hope that yesterday's bad mood stayed yesterday and now nothing will prevent you from decrypting, denoising, reconstructing and then to get its true meaning.
Sorry, I've been talking out of my ass lately...