a trading strategy based on Elliott Wave Theory - page 241
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to GS
On third attempt I managed to upload MathCAD archive:
Thank you very much, I have downloaded it.
In a nutshell please write the installation procedure.
Alexei, do these trades fit into Elliot's wave theory:
[img]Interbank FX, LLC
A/C No: 4947 Name: 2006 February 3, 21:01 (local time)
Closed Transactions:
Ticket Open Time Type Lots Item Price S/L T/P Close Time Price Commission R/O Swap Trade P/L
9958 2006/12/12 00:12 balance Transfer from #4947-5 14187.60
11400 2006/12/21 13:17 buy 1.09 usdjpy 118.35 0.00 0.00 0.00 2006/12/21 15:29 118.46 0.00 0.00 101.21
11694 2006/12/27 11:18 buy 0.02 usdjpy 118.66 0.00 0.00 2006/12/28 12:56 118.93 0.00 0.81 4.54
11728 2006/12/27 16:41 buy 1.31 usdjpy 118.81 0.00 0.00 2006/12/28 15:18 118.92 0.00 53.06 121.17
12454 2007/01/03 15:07 buy 1.42 usdjpy 119.46 0.00 0.00 2007/01/03 17:40 119.61 0.00 0.00 178.07
12915 2007/01/09 14:21 buy 2.07 usdjpy 119.49 0.00 0.00 2007/01/10 15:22 119.74 0.00 27.95 432.18
14146 2007/01/17 14:51 buy 2.03 gbpusd 1.9696 0.0000 0.0000 2007/01/17 15:32 1.9706 0.00 0.00 203.00
14429 2007/01/18 14:35 buy 2.02 eurusd 1.2959 0.0000 0.0000 2007/01/18 19:49 1.2961 0.00 0.00 40.40
14872 2007/01/23 17:47 sell 2.04 eurusd 1.3017 0.0000 0.0000 2007/01/24 08:05 1.3004 0.00 16.42 265.20
14932 2007/01/24 11:12 buy 1.02 usdchf 1.2476 0.0000 0.0000 2007/01/24 15:45 1.2486 0.00 0.00 81.69
16028 2007/01/30 09:14 buy 0.97 eurusd 1.2957 0.0000 0.0000 2007/01/31 05:21 1.2961 0.00 -8.49 38.80
16201 2007/01/31 06:24 buy 1.91 eurusd 1.2962 0.0000 0.0000 2007/01/31 06:34 1.2964 0.00 0.00 38.20
15119 2007/01/25 18:44 buy 1.40 eurusd 1.2966 0.0000 0.0000 2007/01/31 15:06 1.2975 0.00 -49.00 126.00
16329 2007/01/31 15:19 buy 1.92 gbpusd 1.9554 0.0000 0.0000 2007/01/31 15:22 1.9561 0.00 0.00 134.40
16370 2007/01/31 15:30 sell 1.92 usdchf 1.2471 0.0000 0.0000 2007/01/31 15:44 1.2460 0.00 0.00 169.50
16659 2007/02/01 07:56 sell 1.92 gbpusd 1.9654 0.0000 0.0000 2007/02/01 08:00 1.9641 0.00 0.00 249.60
0.00 40.74 2183.96
Deposit/Withdrawal: 13020.02 Credit Facility: 0.00 Closed Trade P/L: 2224.70
Open Trades:
Ticket Open Time Type Lots Item Price S / L T / P Price Commission R/O Swap Trade P/L
16481 2007/01/31 15:58 sell 1.92 gbpusd 1.9578 0.0000 0.0000 1.9675 0.00 30.24 -1862.40
0.00 30.24 -1862.40
Floating P/L: -1832.16
Working Orders:
Ticket Open Time Type Lots Item Price S/L T/P Market Price
No Transactions
A/C Summary:
Closed Trade P/L: 2224.70 Floating P/L: -1832.16
Deposit/Withdrawal: 13020.02 Total Credit Facility: 0.00
Balance: 15244.72 Equity: 13412.56
Margin Requirement: 1920.00 Available Margin: 11492.56
[/img]
i am particularly interested in the open trade? does it have the potential for positive realization, of course, within the theory?
thanks always...
Great!
Yura, please do not mind to post the results in the following format: (Hv-2)*H, in the range H=10-40 points of the split - I want to see the dynamics of return for this symbol and compare it with a possible value of the spread.
How do you get the number 930 points if the commission is 1 point per trade, and the number of transactions is 2314, or something else?
To be more reliable, I'm going to update my tester for Kagi H-patterns and check your results. It would be nice to have one source of ticks. If you don't mind, post your quotes for EURUSD, all ticks 2006 in free access.
Also. Congratulations on mastering the new programming environment!
grasn 03.02.07 19:29
to GS
С третьей попытки удалось выложить архив MathCAD:
Thank you very much, I have downloaded it.
Please describe the installation procedure in a nutshell.
I installed it long ago and I don't remember all the details. In the recognizable text-file it is written, how to install. The only problem may be with framework 1.1. It may not start from this distribution, all the rest works for sure. Yes, if you already have framework 2.0, it won't work. You will definitely need to uninstall framework 2.0.
Sergey, hello!
Why aren't you answering? Why aren't you taking part in the discussion on brickwork?
All to the new building!!!
Why aren't you answering? Why aren't you taking part in the discussion on brickwork?
Everyone to the new building!!!
Hello Sergey!
I am keeping silent for the simple reason that the main thing was already said by Yuri in response to Solandr's concerns ahead of me:
...
4. If you have understood this scheme, you should have noted one detail for yourself: this scheme is essentially a demonstration of the power of mathematical statistics. That is, the possibility of making money in the market has been scientifically proven and, moreover, a method of how to do so depending on the conditions has been formulated. This is the good news. The bad news is that mathematical statistics is the law of large numbers. And it requires a long participation in the market to justify the income prediction. But the longer you are in the market, the more likely it is that market conditions will change and the scheme will stop working. And you will know this by your losses.
...
The method you are developing will really require two things:
(1) A very long presence in the market
(2) A sack of money.
I may be a sceptic, but I'm sure it's impossible to win all the time in forex. I.e. there are no winners in it and you will need to get out in time. And those average 5% of the 100% who make money are bound to lose if they stay for a second or third 'round'. As for the bag of money, it needs to be considerably larger for this strategy.
Right now I'm making the second build of my strategy in MathCAD, at the same time I'm testing and collecting statistics. I think soon we will have "bricks" vs "fractals & waves" contest.
:о)))
I mean exactly what you think.
The resulting equity value = 3244 points. The total number of trades for this H-value is 2314. 3244 - 2314 = 930 pips.
While elaborating, I realized that there are actually peculiarities of strategy implementation that need to be specified. Therefore it is quite possible that we have different algorithms for the same strategy. When I got the results, I thought I do not understand how Renko can bring more profit than Cagi. Decided I would have to write both renko and compare. So you are not alone. :-))
The quotes in packed form take up 6 MB. It's a csv file containing just one column - ticks. In addition, I removed all the repeated ticks. There were more than 60000 of them. But it didn't help. I still cannot see them on the chart in MT4. However, maybe I do not have enough memory. I cannot post them on MQ's Web site due to the reasons you know why. I don't want to bother with other sites. If it does not contradict, send me an empty letter and I will send them by email.
What I can do in MQL4, I won't be able to do in Matkad. So all programme part and calculations are in MT4 and graphics in Matcad. But thanks for the congratulations.
Well, you are an aesthete :-))
According to my calculations, the renko-USD yield dynamics looks different (the abscissa axis should be mentally shifted to the right by 1 point):
The reason for such a difference may be the difference in the initial data plotting strategy... Although, construction of equity as a function of partition discreteness shows the extremums of return in "right" places, the points as of the end of trading for Kagi and Renko H minus-constructions are plotted along the ordinate:
These results are given for 2-point spread for 1.04.2006-29.12.2006 ticks.
I have sent to your E-mail request.
to grasn
You, Sergey, are talking about "amazing" things!
1. According to your hypothesis, it is "important to exit on time" and it does not matter when to "enter", but then the market has a "memory" able to track EXACTLY your behaviour.
2. If this is not the case, you can "enter on time" and therefore "exit" - then there is no danger of losing your trousers.
The first statement is absurd, the second contradicts the first, so you are wrong!
Besides, if you cannot "win all the time" on Forex, then the market is not predictable in principle. Then, what are you doing there? You are wasting your precious time. And if the market is "predictable" (to the degree that this predictability allows to bridge the existent spread), then it is possible to win "all the time" and you are wrong again!
Sergei, I'm talking about ordinary things. There is nothing surprising about them. And of course it is important to enter correctly and exit correctly. But in my post I was thinking globally and meant only that you cannot win your whole life. The thing is, I've already entered and I'm not going to stay all the time.
When you reason about market predictability, you probably have a tool (or mechanism, theory, etc.) with which you can predict with some degree of certainty. It doesn't matter whether it's your own ideas or someone else's thesis. I am also developing such a tool, but I have no illusions that it will work forever. The important thing is that it will not work all the time (I mean all of our long lives).
A strategy based on kagi and renko constructions is bad in that (this is my own opinion) it has no "early warning of failure". But I may be wrong.
I haven't received anything from you. There is, however, one blank email from a certain frolic who has the subgenre "My Heart belongs to you". But somehow I think it's not from you. :-))
I think there's a mistake in the address. Check it: yurixxx AT gmail DOT com
There are three "x's" in the name, not two.
PS
Reworked the kagi yield picture so that it is comparable to yours.
They are very different from ours after all. I wonder what it could be related to ?