a trading strategy based on Elliott Wave Theory - page 298
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So I thought, what if the distance between the order opening price and TP was divided into some levels (it does not matter, for example using Fibo, but it is better not equal segments). It makes sense if the distance is long, but that's roughly what I have. Each level corresponds to a number of lots (in ascending order, of course; the profit level should not correspond to increasing lots). When opening an order, we specify the minimum number of lots. Then we monitor this order and see if the level is exceeded in the direction of TP, we add the specified number of lots. I am sure this simple idea has been implemented and used for a long time. Maybe someone has implemented it, please send me the code, because my knowledge in MT is probably not enough to implement this complicated thing without errors. And maybe someone will also be interested and useful. Or at least explain why it is not recommended to use it.
Thanks in advance. :о)
I think the idea of using Fibo for establishing stop loss and take profit levels deserves your attention.
It's no secret that different currency pairs have different fluctuation amplitudes, so the use of Fibo levels is the most objective approach. Currently I am developing this system, for more accurate calculation of levels I use Elliott figures.
Sincerely,
Alex Niroba
Gianni
In the long term for the pound I think roughly
like this "MQL4: Picture for the forum on metaquotes"
The bright lines represent the past, the black lines
are the future price behavior.
I may be wrong, let's wait and see. :)))
Sincerely,
Alex Niroba
I have some subtleties of course. I would only add that I have decided that if I cannot make an alternative, I will leave this market. For my experience (even with the ability to stop in time) and observations of the participants show that there really are no winners, that would check it just need to stay in the game for some time. But again, this is my personal opinion, there will probably be someone who writes that wins 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year, and the system gives 300% (although upon detailed investigation it turns out that the system is someone who developed no more than a month ago). In general, the main criterion that I defined for myself is reliability.
Hmm, reread my reply and realised I managed to get away with a substantive answer :). We are waiting for a reversal and price reaches a level for which we estimate a 50% probability of reversal. Or 53% :). We immediately enter it against the trend with the lot allocated to this level. But the price continues to go against us, and when it reaches the level, at which the probability of reversal, according to our estimation, is 60%, we add the lot, which is appropriate to the case. And so on. After, say, 99%, we are not being added, but simply state the fallacy of our estimates and wait for the triggering of stops. Well, or not just wait, and try to close at the minimum pullback. Or minimise losses in some other way, depending on what we have in mind and what the tester verifies.
Now I understand everything, the only thing that confuses me is 50%. Somehow it's not very logical to go in the opposite direction with such a probability value. 53% is no better. The idea of accompanying lots by probability of reversal is of course interesting, but except that you need probability on probability. Joke. It should work well if when approaching an actual reversal, the probability calculated by the system increases as well, I'm curious, is that so? :о)
to Alex Niroba
What do we need for a good strategy?
1) Channels to determine the direction of the trend;
2) Elliott figures to identify the turning points;
3) 23 formulas to check the accuracy of your prediction;
4) an MM is needed to avoid overloading the position
and 5) an entry/exit system (stop loss and take profit).
s.w. And nothing too much :)))
Regards,
Alex Niroba
Thanks for your kind advice, but I do not use Elliott in "pure form", although I do my research of pattern transposition on statistical basis in combination with my models for channels (these are the same structures I wrote about before). Just think, if you, for example, have the ability to statistically recognize a pattern (by the way, I haven't tried it yet, but I admit using wavelet analysis for this purpose) and calculate the lifetime of a channel (with some approximation, of course) - would it be easier?
PS: "and nothing superfluous" - are you referring to me, to Eliot or to the 23 formulas? :о)
You should take into account the fact that you should use Fibo for setting stop loss and take profit levels.
It is not a secret that different currency pairs have different oscillation amplitudes that is why I consider using fibo levels the most objective approach. At the moment I am developing this system, for more accurate calculation of levels I use Elliott figures.
Yesterday's attempt to write such a support ended miserably. Probably time to read the documentation after all.
grasn, not personal, but superfluous - I meant in strategy :)))
grasn, not personal, but superfluous - I meant in strategy :)))
Sorry, wrote in a terrible hurry. Getting ready to leave on another business trip. :о)))))))))))
grasn, не личного, а лишнего - я имел ввиду в стратегию :)))
I apologise, I wrote in a terrible hurry. I'm getting ready to leave on another business trip. :о)))))))))))
Don't feel bad, Sergei. I think Alex has got it wrong too.
You should read in p.3 not "23 formulas", but "2-3 formulas". :-)))
Yes, it would be much easier to make predictions, I'm just sure of it!
Maybe you should not use Elliott. :)))
Grasn, why do you have to be so drastic?
Maybe you are digging in the wrong place?
I think that all financial markets work according to the same laws.
It's the stock market. That's why the deposit is in roubles.
I made 26 trades during 3 weeks, all profitable.
I`ve been dealing with this kind of stuff for 8 hours.
There are many different nuances, different from currency market.
below the state
Ticket Open Time Type Lots Item Price S / L T / P Close Time Price Commission Taxes Swap Profit
4708779 2007.07.03 14:05 balance Deposit 3 120 000.00
4708780 2007.07.03 14:06 buy 1000.00 lkoh 2013.000 0.000 0.000 2007.07.04 11:40 2023.980 -2 214.30 0.00 0.00 10 980.00
4708781 2007.07.03 14:06 buy 2500.00 gazp 273.970 0.000 0.000 2007.07.09 09:04 276.500 -753.42 0.00 0.00 6 325.00
4708782 2007.07.03 14:06 buy 1500.00 gazp 273.970 0.000 0.000 2007.07.09 09:04 276.500 -452.05 0.00 0.00 3,795.00
4713340 2007.07.06 15:40 buy 950.00 lkoh 2073.000 0.000 0.000 2007.07.09 09:04 2089.000 -2 166.29 0.00 0.00 15 200.00
4714114 2007.07.09 09:05 buy 1500.00 lkoh 2089.500 0.000 0.000 2007.07.13 09:46 2147.740 -3 447.68 0.00 0.00 87 360.00
4723919 2007.07.13 09:47 buy 10.00 sber 105788.000 0.000 0.000 2007.07.13 11 106300.000 -1 163.67 0.00 0.00 5 120.00
4723922 2007.07.13 09:47 buy 500.00 gazp 286.680 0.000 0.000 2007.07.13 13 13:15 287.470 -157.67 0.00 0.00 395.00
4723924 2007.07.13 09:47 buy 500.00 lkoh 2147.500 0.000 0.000 2007.07.13 13:13 2152.960 -1 181.13 0.00 0.00 2 730.00
4723925 2007.07.13 09:47 buy 1000.00 gazp 286.710 0.000 0.000 2007.07.13 13 13:15 287.500 -315.38 0.00 0.00 790.00
4723926 2007.07.13 09:48 buy 250.00 lkoh 2147.500 0.000 0.000 2007.07.13 14 2152.960 -590.56 0.00 0.00 1,365.00
4723927 2007.07.13 09:48 buy 450.00 gazp 286.700 0.000 0.000 2007.07.13 13:15 287.500 -141.92 0.00 0.00 360.00
4724299 2007.07.13 13:12 sell 10.00 sber 106300.000 0.000 0.000 2007.07.16 09:20 105546.102 -1 169.30 0.00 0.00 7 538.98
4724302 2007.07.13 14:14 sell 750.00 lkoh 2152.960 0.000 0.000 2007.07.13 14:46 2140.070 -1 776.19 0.00 0.00 9 667.50
4724304 2007.07.13 14:16 1,900.00 gazp 287.600 0.000 0.000 2007.07.13 14:45 286.550 -601.08 0.00 0.00 1,995.00
4724494 2007.07.13 14:46 sell 2000.00 gazp 286.410 0.000 285.180 2007.07.24 15:10 285.810 -630.10 0.00 0.00 1 200.00
4724495 2007.07.13 14:47 sell 750.00 lkoh 2142.990 0.000 0.000 2007.07.17 13:58 2127.380 -1 767.97 0.00 0.00 11 707.50
4725559 2007.07.16 09:20 sell 10.00 sber 105446.000 0.000 0.000 2007.07.20 09:01 109.500 -1 159.91 0.00 0.00 1 053 365.00
4727458 2007.07.17 13:59 buy 755.00 lkoh 2127.000 0.000 0.000 2007.07.17 14:56 2142.100 -1 766.47 0.00 0.00 11,400.50
4727558 2007.07.17 14:56 sell 755.00 lkoh 2142.660 0.000 0.000 2007.07.23 08:44 2138.500 -1 779.48 0.00 0.00 3 140.80
4731609 2007.07.20 09:19 sell 150.00 tatn 138.270 0.000 1.600 2007.07.20 09:39 137.640 -2 281.46 0.00 0.00 9 450.00
4731660 2007.07.20 09:41 sell 152.00 tatn 137.640 0.000 1.600 2007.07.20 10:26 136.900 -2 301.34 0.00 0.00 11 248.00
4731722 2007.07.20 10:28 sell 155.00 tatn 136.860 0.000 1.600 2007.07.20 11:45 136.260 -2 333.46 0.00 0.00 9 300.00
4731882 2007.07.20 11:55 sell 156.00 tatn 136.400 0.000 1.600 2007.07.23 08:44 135.340 -2 340.62 0.00 0.00 16 536.00
4733401 2007.07.23 09:17 sell 250.00 tatn 135.260 0.000 1.600 2007.07.24 15:41 134.850 -3 719.65 0.00 0.00 10 250.00
4735961 2007.07.24 14:36 sell 25.00 tatn 135.570 0.000 1.600 2007.07.24 15:41 134.850 -372.82 0.00 0.00 1 800.00
4736111 2007.07.24 15:43 sell 300.00 tatn 134.550 0.000 1.600 2007.07.24 15:52 134.230 -4 440.15 0.00 0.00 9,600.00
-41 024.07 0.00 0.00 1 302 619.28
Closed P/L: 1 261 595.21
Open Trades:
Ticket Open Time Type Lots Item Price S/L T/P Price Commission Taxes Swap Profit
No transactions
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Floating P/L: 0.00
And it is not just stocks, but also metals, gold, oil, etc. etc., that also obey these laws.
Whether you know these laws or not is another matter :)))
i meant these
EUR/USD=EUR/GBP*GBP/USD
EUR/USD=EUR/AUD*AUD/USD
EUR/USD=EUR/CAD:USD/CAD
EUR/USD=EUR/CHF:USD/CHF
EUR/USD=EUR/JPY:USD/JPY
EUR/USD=EUR/NZD*NZD/USD
GBP/USD=GBP/CHF:USD/CHF
GBP/USD=GBP/JPY:USD/JPY
EUR/JPY=EUR/CHF*CHF/JPY
EUR/JPY=EUR/CAD*CAD/JPY
EUR/JPY=EUR/NZD*NZD/JPY
USD/JPY=USD/CAD*CAD/JPY
USD/JPY=NZD/JPY:NZD/USD
USD/JPY=AUD/JPY:AUD/USD
EUR/AUD=EUR/JPY:AUD/JPY
EUR/AUD=EUR/NZD:AUD/NZD
EUR/AUD=EUR/CAD:AUD/CAD
EUR/AUD=EUR/CHF:AUD/CHF
AUD/USD=AUD/CAD:USD/CAD
AUD/USD=AUD/CHF:USD/CHF
AUD/USD=AUD/NZD*NZD/USD
EUR/CHF=EUR/CAD*CAD/CHF
USD/CHF=USD/CAD*CAD/CHF
with respect,
Alex Niroba
Or maybe you're digging in the wrong place?
...
I'm not being too harsh, just a plain statistics, some kind of objective opinion and no more. And I'm still here and digging where it's needed.
Alex, I've written before that you inspire me with reports. You should be given a guest password to make it more convincing, long time ago I ask you to touch the miracle :o)))))
By the way, it is extremely inconvenient to read the statment in this form. It would be better to publish it as a report. MT seems to have such a function, it saves it as html, but I could be wrong.
And not just stocks, but metals, gold, oil, etc. etc. are also subject to these laws.
Another thing is whether you know these laws or not :)))
Oh, those Elliots... :o))))
I meant these...
Not sophisticated formulas....apparently all brilliant is simple, or vice versa.
to Yurixx
Don't get upset, Sergei. I think Alex has got a typo too.
In p.3 you should read not "23 formulas", but "2-3 formulas". :-)))
Hi Yuri, it's just my inattention, Alex has developed an automatic reaction to ps, something like a reflex. :о)
How are you getting on with the wavelets? After such a hectic publication, it all went quiet somehow.
By the way, it is extremely inconvenient to read the statement in this form. It would be better to publish it as a report. MT seems to have such a function, saves as html, but I could be wrong.
No matter what proofs you put out, anyway
the question of predicting markets has been, is, and always will be open!
p.s. it is very difficult to believe in the impossible and
it is impossible to believe in the very difficult. :)))
Sincerely,
Alex Niroba