Market prediction based on macroeconomic indicators - page 54
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Is the market up - the economy down?
That's the way it is.
Will a man be fit (lean) if he is constantly overfed. When the market is down, the sick companies drop out of the market, the economy gets healthier, there is more space, the economy grows.
ZZZY We have a misconception about growth, growth is when you have to work harder because you are not paid enough. When they pay a lot, they work less (because they have enough for the "bad life" (s) and do not earn all the money) the economy slows down.
Market up - economy down?
Yep. The market reflects investor sentiment and emotion. Investors may initially rejoice in stability from Hillary's election as president, but high taxes will slow the economy.
Hillary is bad for America. She is inadequate, could easily push the "button".
The US released preliminary data for Q3. GDP growth came in above my and others' predictions. Here are the new GDP predictions. Two slightly different models. Both predict lower growth in Q4, but no recession in sight yet. Yield Curve doesn't predict a recession either.
Model 1:
Model 2:
Yield Curve:
The previous GDP trend prediction for Q4 2016 has come true. Here is the new prediction for two quarters ahead:
USA GDP:
USA Yield Curve:
No recession in sight so far.
Vladimir, how are you doing? It is a pity that you have abandoned the branch.
I gave it up because not many people were interested in the work. I continue to predict the economy for myself. Success is good. I expect a recession in 2019.
I gave it up because not many people were interested in the work. I continue to predict the economy for myself. Success is good. I expect a recession in 2019.
It is not always possible to maintain a dialogue due to lack of competence, but that does not mean that the information and discussion around it is not interesting.
Do you expect a recession in the US, or in the world economy in general?
What model (how it works) are you currently using to predict such expectations?
It is not always possible to maintain a dialogue due to a lack of competence, but that does not mean that the information and discussion around it is not interesting.
Do you expect a recession in the USA, or in the world economy in general?
What model (how it works) are you currently using to predict such expectations?
It is not always possible to maintain a dialogue due to a lack of competence, but that does not mean that the information and discussion around it is not interesting.
Do you expect a recession in the USA, or in the world economy in general?
What model (how it works) do you currently use to predict such expectations?
In the USA, where I live and where all my investments are. The model is still the same, it is based onsparse approximation to choose the best predictor among 10 thousand or so. I also use yield curve as a leading indicator.
USA GDP 2 quarters ahead:
Current yield curve: