Emotions when trading - page 12
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No to the product that is in my profile it has a vague relation. All the works posted (except the LITE series) on analytics. the real works to me, it is forbidden to publish because it is the property of the team. With the permission of the team I would like to share only intellectual works, but not as open source (of course in a limited scope otherwise it will be like a dissertation)
I think we should create a separate thread. If it's not in this forum, then tell us which one, and we'll move there. We are far away from emotions ))
it is not the trend that changes, but its direction over a period of time
There, yes, the trend can go in different directions at the same time.
However, it is worth remembering that all these "internal" trends are INTO the main trend.
For example, the US is now seeing QE being phased out and transitioning to tighter monetary policy.
At the same time most other countries are easing their monetary policy.
Inverse correlation.
Which in turn causes the trend. A major one. Global.
Such trends don't change out of the blue.
For example, if we learn at one of the Fed meetings that they will wait to raise rates, it does not mean that the trend has changed.
Although there may be a pullback (correction).
But the trend itself will not change.
That's the way it is.
P.S. And I am completely silent about scalpers... For them, trends and tendencies don't exist.
No they haven't, the man's emotions are boiling over.
He is a psychologist...
His book is coming out in the summer.
It's about us.
:-))
He is a psychologist...
His book is coming out in the summer.
It's about us.
You're talking about time intervals (minutes, hours, day, week, month).
There, yes, the trend can go in different directions at the same time.
However, it is worth remembering that all these "internal" trends are INSIDE the main trend.
For example, the US is now seeing QE being rolled back and transitioning to tighter monetary policy.
At the same time most other countries are easing their monetary policy.
Inverse correlation.
Which in turn causes a trend. A major one. Global.
These trends don't change out of the blue.
For example, if we learn at one of the Fed meetings that they will wait to raise rates, it does not mean that the trend has changed.
Although there may be a pullback (correction).
But the trend itself will not change.
That's the way it is.
P.S. And I am completely silent about scalpers... For them trends and tendencies do not exist.
What are you guys talking about? Are you guys serious?
What the hell are "global trends"? It's a myth! You still do not understand that the market is like in the joke - "you never know what a drunk girl might say?" :-D
So in order:
Let's start with an easy one - with indicators, goddamn it...!! All of you have probably traded in them and know their destructive feature - they lag! We take a stupid Masha - look at the chart - the trend is down; look at the Masha - the chart has crossed it from top to bottom - shit, really down - sell, put a stop lol. And then what do you think?If something bad canhappen, it happens - Murphy's Law. The trend changes its direction literally after we have entered. We look at Masha - she's pointing down. That's when we remember we have a silly girl :-D But it's too late! The trend has changed and Masha, like the giraffe in the joke, will realize it only in a week!
Let's move on. Let's remember that there is a "global trend". And the trend is also going down. We remove the stop and "take a pose" (I do not like this expression) :-D And what do you think will happen? Murphy's law comes to mind. Of course - the trend will reverse, contrary to all other laws, or it will wear you down until you give in. And when you give in it will go further! I'm reminded of the words of a (I don't know what to call him - let's call him affectionately) sucker, I think from Fin...ma - "well I took a stand... I didn't think the backlash would be that big... "I've lost a few other people's flats...". It's a picture of two dudes who don't know each other:
And what do you think - you're better than him? The market will tear you to shreds, chew you up and spit you out, just like it spits out 90% of its participants every day!!!
What are we talking about? Ah yes - it's a thankless business "following the trend" I tell you!!! ))
And now we come to the climax of all of the above. So ask yourself a question - who are you? I think the answer is obvious - most likely you are a relatively small capital worker. And your average "deposit" in Forex is a couple of hundred dollars. Why I think I don't need to explain. I must say at once - those who put in here big money in my opinion, to put it mildly, are either liars, or I don't know - probably people who are in the picture above. Or maybe you're in a "borderline state" :-D At the moment my opinion is. The rest are trading on more real sites. So you have 200 quid and you are a "trend chaser". As we found out above the main trend is palpable on timeframes clearly above 4 o'clock. I don't know if you haven't thought about it before to my sympathy, but I think it's time for that. Ask yourself a question - if you got into a position on a pullback of the main trend on a daily chart with 200 quid (I'm not even talking about two condos in Moscow) in your pocket what are you waiting for? And I ask you to give the most honest answer to this question. I think then and only then you will finally gain understanding.
Z.U. Do not put yourself in place "stupid Masha"! :-D
With respect...
What are you guys talking about? Are you guys serious? © The man from the "youth" KVN team
What the hell are the "global trends"? It's a myth! You still do not understand that the market is like in the joke - "you never know what a drunk girl might say?" :-D
So in order:
Let's start with an easy one - with indicators, goddamn it...!! All of you have probably traded in them and know their destructive feature - they lag! We take a stupid Masha - look at the chart - the trend is down; look at the Masha - the chart has crossed it from top to bottom - damn, really down - sell, put a stop lol. And then what do you think?If something bad canhappen, it happens - Murphy's Law. The trend changes its direction literally after we entered. We look at Masha - she's pointing down. That's when we remember we have a silly girl :-D But it's too late! The trend has changed and Masha, like the giraffe in the joke, will understand it only in a week!
From what you write, your bidding tactics are price chasing.
You don't know how to jump the trend in highly volatile markets.
Because there is no trend for you.
Without a drawdown, you won't jump into the trend.
And every time you open a position, the Market goes against you. And you catch the Moose.
Trading on a trend (trend-following) involves a little maths, a little stamina, a little analysis, a little risk management.
In order to jump into a trend, a normal trader does the following described actions;
In order not to miss a possible downward movement (continuation of the trend), he opens a sell position with a minimum lot (0.10). This is what I do. Some prefer to sit and wait for a pullback, which may never come. This is the reason why I immediately open a minimum position in the direction of the trend. Even if the correction is deep, this position will eventually turn into a profit. If you don't do this, you may miss the movement. This often happens. If you trade in the direction of the trend, you will always put the position in the plus side.
Let's say the opening level is 1.13079.
If the price goes down (the trend continues), the profit will be small.
A big profit will be for the simple reason that the price has been going down for a long time.
This move started in March 2014 (are you saying that this is not a trend...? Well, well...).
Anyone who follows the news understands that despite such a long period of Euro weakness, the bottom has not yet been reached. The trend will continue (and is continuing).
How to increase the profits if correction is very possible (after a strong and prolonged movement), but nobody knows when it will happen (or will there be any)...?
The answer is obvious - you need a correction;
There are two variants;
Variant one: for those who have a lot of money and can sell (add) any rebound upwards at once.
If that's the case, the volumes will grow quickly. Small bounces - sell - continuation of downward movement.
The profit will be tangible, but not guaranteed, because after gaining a large number of positions at low (unprofitable) levels, if the price decides to make a serious correction - the losses will be staggering. Such traders can lose their nerve, and many take losses. This tactic is for the greedy and impatient ones. They will be wiped out sooner or later. No matter how much money they have, they will lose every last penny. Probably never come back to the Market again. And if they do, they will be wiped out again.
Option two is more suitable for most people, because most people don't have enough money to take such risks. A simple and common calculation is required here, which I will demonstrate to you now;
So, the first Sell is opened at 1.13079 only to avoid being out of the Market, if the movement continues in the right direction. However, it is still desirable to see an upward correction. And the deeper it will be, the better.
We find the first level in the path of the price, where it is most likely to arrive.
Open the 4-hours chart and identify the nearest one - 1.14590.
In order from the bottom up:
1.14590
1.15338
1.16278
1.17536
1.18704
1.20419
So, we have identified as many as 6 most likely levels that may be visited by the price.
At each of these levels there is a Sell Limit with the volume of 0.10...
Calculating...
14590-13079=1511 pips. That's -$151.1
15338-13079=2259 pips. That's $225.9
16278-13079=3199 points. This is -319.9$
17536-13079=4457 points. This is -445.7$
18704-13079=5625 pips. This is -562.5$
20419-13079=7340 pips. That's -$734.0
We get the drawdown - the sum of these numbers - $2,439.1... Not much for those who can't get on the train in time...
Now count the reward for composure and equanimity;
You don't have to be a wise judge to understand that a very probable target for the Market on EUR/USD is parity. It may not take long for the price to get there, e.g. in a year. There is a risk of losing some of the profit on swaps or commissions. Therefore it is wise to set the closest target - in my opinion, it is the level of 1.08290...
Calculating the probable profit from probable levels....
20419-8290=12129 pips. This is +$1212.9
18704-8290=10414 pips. This is +$1041.4
17536-8290=9246 pips. This is +$924.6
16278-8290=7988 pips. This is +$798.8
15338-8290=7048 pips. That's +704.8$
14590-8290=6300 points. That's +$630
13079-8290=4789 points. That's +478.9.
Add it all together. We get: 5791.4$... In just over half a month to two...
Probable potential profit from a simple procedure. All that is required is capital adequacy and stamina. And knowledge of the major trends in the world.
Sure, some of this money will be eaten up by swaps, but it's not much if you know how to calculate your plan of action.
The levels I cite are defined by me and are not exact and reasonable. They are just power levels where price has either consolidated or bounced in the past.
You can continue determining the levels till which you would like to see the price correction. I think the deeper up correction is, the better. It will allow to make more profit.
But at the moment there is no need to determine further levels and set Sell Limit, because if you look at the weekly chart, these levels already overlap the moving average (14-period). It makes sense to consider such a correction sufficient for the downtrend to continue after it.
If the target is still 1.00000, then another calculations can be done. And instead of 1.08290 we should aim at 1.00000. It will take more time. Maybe a year. Maybe less. No one knows that. But the fact that it will happen can only be doubted by a beginner, or a simpleton who can't count (or won't), or an impatient trader who came to the Market for a momentary gain (will be "wiped out"). Or those who do not follow the news and do not know what is going on in the World...
Many banks, funds and other bidders, set the target at 1.00000 (parity).
If we follow the same logic in our example, we will have to pay more on swaps, or commissions. But also in calculation, the output figure would not be 4x, but 5x.
In addition, if you consider a farther target, rollbacks are also possible on the way to it. This in turn allows us to continue adding sales. Thus increasing the profit.
P.S.
Never chase the price. Robots (automated trading systems) can do that.
If you trade with your hands and head, you need calculation, analysis, patience and money management.
Trends were, are and always will be, no matter what anyone says.
To determine the trends the generally accepted way is fundamental analysis.
For determining entry/exit points, technical analysis is the universally accepted way.
The price may not be there so quickly, for example in a year. There is a risk of losing some profits on swaps or commissions. Therefore, it is wise to set the closest target - in my opinion it is 1.08290 level...
What is the result? You are forced to enter the market with so small lots, that simply losing the whole sense of trading - getting a good profit, incomparable with conventional types of investments. The same 50-100% a year can be achieved by less risky methods.
By the way, you seem to contradict yourselves - either you go with the trend, or not. And you're looking for an excuse that the trend is going against you calling it pullbacks and other definitions))
Yes, I'm more of a scalper and aiming for higher frequencies. As they say "all will pass - joy and sorrow" © Michael Boyarsky. So the trend will pass too! Good luck is ephemeral - either you have grasped it or you "took a stand" - in other words you were "bent". You can blow all you want and prove to me or anyone else that you are justifying your current drawdown, but the fact remains!
Every man has his own swamp :)
Are you having a contest to see who has the longest text?
It's not the number of words that counts, but the punch line )) But I don't think I could do it in a smaller space.