Trend is your friend - page 6
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I will say my opinion, I started Forex less than a year ago, but based on my experience (analysis of signals from measuring systems) I can confidently say - it is impossible to predict the trend for the future, using only technical analysis. From what I draw conclusions, long term trading can only be based on fundamental analysis, and it is good to have information, at least indirectly about the "intentions" and needs of the moving players.
All the analysis of the past, on which you are drawing the lines, does not mean anything in the future - the arrival of a big player in the market reverses the trend at any time. Therefore, it is advisable to work on the bounce with minimal stops. Of course I prefer the main direction, for example on the major TF, but I would not hesitate to work against the trend, another question is how to find the optimal points. Fibonacci levels work quite confidently, but we should not make a mistake with the basic points, which is very difficult for automatons.
I will say my opinion, I started Forex less than a year ago, but based on my experience (analysis of signals from measuring systems) I can confidently say - it is impossible to predict the trend for the future, using only technical analysis. From what I draw conclusions, long term trading can only be based on fundamental analysis, and it would be good to have information, at least indirect information about "intentions" and the needs of the moving players.
All the analysis of the past, on which you are drawing the lines, does not mean anything in the future - the coming of the big market player reverses the trend at any time. And therefore it is desirable to work on the bounce with minimal stops. Of course I prefer the main direction, for example on the major TF, but I would not hesitate to work against the trend, another question is how to find the optimal points. Fibonacci levels work quite confidently, but we should not make a mistake with the basic points, which is very difficult for automatons.
There is no need to predict, you are trading now and not in the future
I agree. And also on thePODBOX post I would like to say the following.
Large timeframes require large stop losses and correspondingly large take profits. Optimal points are very difficult to find, because we do not know the exact intention of the big "fish". But, we can always make an assumption that this is a zone for entry and this is a zone for exit. And it is desirable to enter the market in correction after the formation of a trend in the expected direction - that is, the optimal entry will be a little later than the exact entry. So ideas.
I agree. I would also like to say the following aboutPODBOX's post.
Large timeframes require large stop losses and correspondingly large take profits. Optimal points are very difficult to find, because we do not know the exact intention of the big "fish". But, we can always make an assumption that this is a zone for entry and this is a zone for exit. And it is desirable to enter the market in correction after the formation of a trend in the expected direction - that is, the optimal entry will be a little later than the exact entry. Thus, the ideas.
That's how I see you're making progress every day.
Below is one way of using the trend to trade.
Do not try to define the trend line (dynamic) programmatically.
This is the part of the graph which is visually very easy to define, but cannot be programmed.
I should have started with the formulation of the trend (to recognize it in time). All are strong in hindsight.
DearVinin,
Why are you not happy with the second downtrend, which was built in time, although the first one was drawn a long time ago.
We are already working on the formulation of the trend and the development of the Expert Advisor. Although, as my esteemedPetros pointed out, everything is not given without a reason.
With respect to both of us,
Do not try to define the trend line (dynamic) programmatically.
This is the part of the graph that is visually very easy to define, but cannot be programmed.
You should not make such a categorical assessment. The trend line can be plotted in the way the brain sees it. The brain relies on something. It simply processes visual information faster.And, by the way, it does not see many things, unlike a well-designed software algorithm.