A newcomer asks! - page 11

[Alexander Shekhovtsov]

Sayber:
Taakoy question: if I' ve created an EA, which trades profitably (about 500% (demo) per day), then how to sell it profitable - FULL or each person on a license? And where can it be sold to be transferred to the card? There is a demo for profit 100$ a day.

Let's say he bought at 1.3110 in the morning and sold at 1.3170 in the evening. Where is the 500%? My result is 100%*(1.3170-1.3110)/1.3110=0.45%. Or you have different percentages? A non-standard one?

In general, loss-making Expert Advisors are sold. But we need the tester's report, where one thousand is transformed into one million in a couple of weeks. Then there will be those who want to buy. And if we want to be frank and honest: 0.45% at best, we will pass by: "Oh, this is lame! Will it make a million for a month? No? Then what the hell is this use?

[Sayber]

Wex:

Let's say he bought at 1.3110 in the morning and sold at 1.3170 in the evening. Where is the 500%? My result is 100%*(1.3170-1.3110)/1.3110=0.45%. Or you have different percentages? Anything different?

Generally speaking, loss-making Expert Advisors are sold. But we will need the tester's report, in which one thousand is transformed to one million within a couple of weeks. Then we will get those who want to buy. And if you tell them straight away: 0.45% at best, they will pass by: "Oh, this is lame! Will it make at least one million for a month? No? Then what's the point of doing this?

That's not how you think when you calculate income. To show how things work in reality, I give you the table with calculations made in one minute. The red colour shows the unchangeable initial values! Green shows variable values. Of course, the formulas are approximate, but they reflect the trading process more accurately than yours. The full calculation formula looks much more complicated, where many factors are taken into account. The bottom line is that it is realistic to make a profit.

As can be seen from the table the profit for the day is 659%. Let us consider all the disadvantages. Well first, if you do not go into the strategy algorithm, the Expert Advisor will not trade all funds as shown in the formula, but only a certain percentage of this amount - hence, the formula shows profit on percentage of the amount of money traded by the Expert Advisor, not on all funds. Secondly, we do not take into account the drawdown that will be deducted from the profit - let's say the drawdown is 38%, then the profit will be only 659-659*38/100=407,58% Third factor: if the price index is 60 pips in one day and this index remains the same in one minute - it is just an average figure, in fact, if the price changes 60 pips in one day, then the full figure will be much higher than these 60 pips in about 1.5-3 times (the average reality)! For example: let's say there is one pip per minute, then for one hour we get 60 pips, but if we take the difference between the first and last selling price 60-1 we will get 59 pips, i.e. 60+59=119 pips, between the second price 60-2=58 60+58=118, and 119+118=237 etc. Although this example is illogical, but it gives a more accurate picture of how the trading algorithm works. Also note that the probability of price changes in one direction or another is a random factor of 50%, which is similar to tossing a coin and tossing heads and tails, but after getting, say, 100 results of heads out of 100 tosses on the interval A , the probability of getting tails on the interval B in further 100 tosses may be 100% or more, not 50% as it was before (while the interval of intervals is not taken into account).

From all aforesaid the question arises, but what factor defines probability (randomness)? If to take into account that all chance is not casual and there is a factor determining randomness, then in the example with a coin it is a rate of ascent, height of ascent, frequency of rotation and height of a stop of a coin. Ie changing these factors we will receive those cherished 50% of falling out of heads and tails, which in calculations can be equal to 100 and more percent. With the coin sorted out and what about the real trade? The real trade is the same as the coin's one. There is frequency of price changes, speed of rise, height of rise, height of stop. Therefore, by optimizing these parameters at a constant interval of price movement we minimize the probability of unpredictable price movement, and consequently the factor of being in the red becomes minimal. No way - if we considered local factors influencing the probability, we haven't considered the global factors that may occur! To take them into account, we should compare the dependences of local factors with the global ones. The Expert Advisor can perform this comparison only within the limits of possibilities (functionality) of the programming language it is written in and the algorithm used in the Expert Advisor's work. Such a functionality is large enough, and the algorithm can take into account all of the nuances of the influencing factors.

This is only an example given for reflection, but you should not use everything that is presented in the example!

So why not use this example? Suppose you took into account all the factors and optimized the Expert Advisor for these factors on some period of time (up to now) and put the EA to trade. In theory, an EA that takes into account all the factors should trade only in the plus column, but what we see is that the graph that shows profit is not stable and the further away from the optimization history, the more unstable it is! This happens because the EA does not consider the correction of newly received data. If optimization on the history is A, and the newly received data is B, then the full optimization equals A+B=C, but the time interval factor of data arrival is not considered here. As a result, an ideal optimized Expert Advisor should be A+B1=C1, A+B1+B2=C2, etc. Конечный результат (А+В1)+(А+В1+В2)+...+(А+В1+В2+...+ВN)=С1+С2+...+СN

That's how it is!

[Sayber]

papaklass:

You have, to put it mildly, a very rough idea of trading in the financial markets.

Trade a little in the real world. After a while you will laugh at what you wrote in the previous post.

PS: Traders control losses and count risks, not profits. There is a good saying: "If you do not take care of the losses, they will take care of you." Think about the meaning of that saying.

I totally agree with you. But if you've invested $1 hoping to make $5 a day, and you've only made $1 profit in a year, it's hardly worth the effort.

At this rate, you'd be better off investing that dollar in a bank at interest instead of trading.

[Igor Konyashin]

Sayber:

But if you invested $1 hoping to make $5 a day and only made $1 profit in a year, then it's hardly worth the gamble.

Atthis rate, you'd be better off investing that dollar in a bank with interest rather than trading.

:))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

*puttalom*

[Sayber]

i_logic:

:))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

*♪ pazztalom ♪

I wonder what's so funny. Here's the calculation: 1000 rubles VPS per month is 12 thousand rubles. Let's say you've got 22 thousand rubles, of which 12 you'll give for VPS, left 12 of them 50% untouchable amount left 6 of these 6 thousand rubles. You'll put 30% to risk - the sum is 4 thousand and a penny, and now what profit will you have to pay back the expenses for the next year? And I tell you - it's out of 4 thousand to make 12 thousand, that is 200% as a minimum and is only on costs, and plus another 6 do not count? That's 18,000. If you make only 40-70% a year, then you incur losses. It is easier to put this money in the bank at the same interest rate! This is the reality, otherwise the sense of trading at a loss. Oh I forgot: everybody here thinks in dollars and the amounts are in the tens of thousands, or even hundreds - so the sense has not changed. Even if you roll in millions.

[Igor Konyashin]

Sayber:

Masterpiece :))) I'm a fan :)))

Afftor, keep on burning! ))

[Igor Konyashin]

Afftor, why do you need a 12-month UPU, you have an advisor doing 500% a day?

[Sayber]

papaklass:

The fellow doesn't even know what he's talking about:)

I wanted to ask what understanding means in your sense, but I won't. What do you think, by what criteria should the cost of an Expert Advisor, which multiplies the deposit, be formed?

And so that you have something to do, so think - write down clever thoughts!

[Sayber]

i_logic:
Afftor, why do you need a VPS for 12 months, your Expert Advisor is doing 500% a day?

What for? nigma.ru to help! And what do you think VPS is for a person who does not have internet?

[Igor Konyashin]

i_logic:
Аффтор, а зачем вам ВПС на 12 месяцев, у вас же советник 500% в день делает?

Sayber:

Why? *****.ru to the rescue! Why do you think a VPS is needed for someone who doesn't have internet?

Wahaha! More! More!