Repetitive patterns and other patterns - page 17

[Vladimir]

TheXpert:

Erm, you're not setting the objective correctly, imho.

Why do you have to explain reversals? The normal goal is to make money on the move.

I'm almost 100% sure you can't describe the price range with the hard rules of your channel strategy. There will always be failures.

So maybe you don't need to explain it and just look for the working points.

For example -- a 3-touch and then a reversal -- anything to substantiate it? I don't think so. Straight to the downside.

The breakout point is in the middle of a new channel. I doubt it. No way.

But -- the breakpoint could be support/resistance if it reverses -- plausible and logical -- why not test it?

That's the spirit in which I suggest you think about it.

I don't need to explain reversals. Figure boundaries and ps lines help to set more accurate targets, as well as more accurate entry points (e.g. a price pullback from a boundary followed by a target set on the opposite boundary). Failures are always possible. The main thing is to know that if there is a failure (for example, instead of a sharp edge we have a breakout), we can make profit on it with a clearly formulated target. Moreover, failures often result in more profitable deals. The 3 touch points are a powerful tool to predict that the next time the price reaches the same level it will break it. I have observed this in many parts of history. About breakout point and middle of channel, it's not so exact, there are many variations. A breakout point does not always become a support or resistance line. What is more important is that price does not return to the old channel. Let's throw out of my rules what doesn't work and leave out what does work. I think channel trading is a sensible idea that deserves attention and further development.

[Hide]

gpwr:

While I was asleep price tested the lower boundary of the flag and is now moving towards the upper boundary of the last channel. Target: 1.284. The presidential election should bring volatility. I'm voting for Romney.

I don't know about Romney, I am terribly fond of those guys, but I am pretty sure that any pattern can break under the pre-election circumstances. Not much of an observation, of course. What is it, two out of three.

[Sergey Petruk]

gpwr:
... Figure boundaries and ps lines help to set more accurate targets as well as more accurate entry points ... 3 touch points are a powerful tool for predicting that the next time price reaches the same boundary it will break it... As for the breakout point and the middle of the channel, it is not so exact, there are many variations. A breakout point is not always a support or resistance line. What is more important is that price does not return to the old channel. Let's take out of my rules what doesn't work and leave out what does work.

some "quick" observations:

- channel boundaries are a kind of support/resistance area, and the width of this area should be marked and it seems that its width is approximately equal to the average value of the bar of the previous channel. /this will help filter out false breakdowns/;

- the channel middle - I think this is a relative name, because halves of a channel are not always equal to it, and its function is to fix the exit point from the channel and to mark the price reversal point;

- The boundaries of paternals' figures as well as their definition itself are difficult for me. It is easier for me to indicate the wave structure, in which the end of a wave is usually located at the border of a channel near the 3rd touch, respectively, then either a reversal or a residual movement in the current direction;

The automation of trading in the channel is a complicated, long and costly process.

[Vladimir]

vspexp:

some "quick" observations:

- channel boundaries are a kind of support/resistance area, and the width of this area should be marked and it seems that its width is approximately equal to the average value of the bar of the past channel. /this will help filter out false breakdowns/;

- the channel middle - I think this is a relative name, because halves of a channel divided by it are not always equal, and it has the following functions: to fix the exit point from the channel and to mark the price reversal point;

- The boundaries of paternals' figures as well as their definition itself are difficult for me. It is easier for me to indicate the wave structure, in which the end of a wave, as a rule, is located at the channel borders around the 3rd touch, respectively, then either a reversal or a residual movement in the current direction;

The automation of trading in the channel is a complicated, long and costly process.

Thanks for the support. I will post the channel building code in some time. We can already talk about automation there. For now, I'm observing the development of channels in real time and fine-tuning the methodology.

[Vladimir]

The prediction of reaching and possibly breaking the upper boundary of the last channel came true, as well as the initial target of 1.287, which I then corrected to 1.284. So far it's hard to say where price will go next. We need to wait for two tops.

It's interesting how traders associate Obama winning today's presidential election with a weak dollar. Which is right: Obama is promoting socialism in America, which leads to bankrupt government, money printing, and inflation.

[Sergey Petruk]

according to your construction rules, but in my version on D1 the channel looks like this

[Vladimir]

papaklass:
You might want to go back to the cold war period. After all, for Romney, Russia is the enemy. He understands when America stands up for its interests and refuses to understand when Russia stands up for its interests. But the choice is yours, Americans. And America has made its choice. A weak dollar is not Obama's policy, but America's payback for its philosophies.

Romney is a clown and I'm surprised the Republicans haven't found a better candidate. I haven't heard Romney talk about the Cold War. Republican and Democrat foreign policy is the same. Obama criticized Bush for the war in Iraq and Afghanistan and promised to return the troops within 18 months of his presidency. And the troops are still there. Under Obama, America continued to meddle in others' affairs, such as the coups in Egypt and Libya, which did not make a lot of difference there, by the way. The main difference between the two parties is their economic policies. The democrats believe that the way to economic growth is to spread the wealth by imposing higher taxes on the rich in favour of various social programmes targeted at the poor, so that the poor have more purchasing power and thus drive the economy forward. All of these social programs lead to higher spending, more government, which in the end leads to bankruptcy and money printing. The Republicans believe that the way to grow the economy is to create favourable conditions for capitalists to invest in expanding their businesses, reduce taxes for everyone, control revenues and reduce the role and size of government. Some will say that the Democrat agenda is fairer. But it really is not. For example, tax increases in the US have caused many companies to move from the US to other countries with lower taxes, such as Switzerland or Belgium. A recent tax increase in France of up to 75% has caused many capitalists to leave France. A friend of mine who owns a company in France wrote me how higher taxes reduced his profits and the ability to pay good wages to his employees so much that he too decided to move his company to Switzerland, where the maximum tax is still 20%. Here for example is an interesting revelation from an American capitalist:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49356069/

Who is benefiting from these tax increases when capitalists are either shutting down their companies or moving to other countries?

[Vladimir]

vspexp:

I agree with your construction of the new channel on the hourly chart. I built the same channel on my chart. I expect the price to fluctuate around 1.276 for one more day and then will go up again to test the upper boundary of the channel. The target is 1.282. The price is likely to rebound from the upper boundary and we will continue downwards. Apart from the downside channel, I see a narrowing triangle preparing the price for a powerful breakout of the lower boundary of the flag.

[A100]

Reshetov:

It looks like the market has caught up with the adviser.

Another robot (top one) got caught, I think they will unload it in the same way

[Vladimir]

If you look at the 4-hour chart, you can see that we have a continuation of the old channel if you ignore the false breakdown. This is not the case on the hourly chart. Maybe the 4-hour chart is more correct, because after every 20:00 bar we always have a 0:00 bar, even from Friday to Monday. The hourly chart does not have a 23:00 bar every Friday.