Naive beginner's strategies. - page 18
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Dmitry, you forgot an important thing to say, you do not set stop losses. I looked at your signals. A solid growth of 106% in 3 months. It's a 37% drawdown, but it'll do. The Sharpe Ratio = 1.33 is very good (mine is worse). I would admire you even more, but you do not put stop losses! (Neither do I).
Victor, your signals are also interesting, I wish you further profits )) To be honest, I'm not looking for approval of my colleagues regarding my trading, but I can explain. The thing is, trading on the signal is very conservative in order to gain some decent statistics on the respected resource during the year and a half. My entry area is smeared out by 10-20 pips with several orders. With MO=10 pips and a Sharpe of more than zero you can see that I am not even out of the starting area, i.e. not all entry orders are triggered (not getting enough). And stops are there, you just do not see them in statistics. My problem is different. I am searching for the logic of the signal rating increase. If you have any ideas in this direction, which I can share with you?
And how is it?
What's not to understand? The deposit is 100 p. You enter a trade with 95 p, 5 p are left for quotes fluctuations. This 5 p is enough to secure 5-6 losing trades. That is the entire MM.
For Forex it should be not 5%, but 20-25.
on a good trend, the load can be 100, 300, or 500%
All of us began our acquaintance with market trading at some point in our lives. We all went through the process of learning this activity and were a bit of a romantic. We believed in ourselves and our "exceptional" and "brilliant" ideas. And everyone was disappointed one day.
It is painful and unpleasant. It hurts from the realization of mistakes, the invalidity of ideas, the wrong path, and our own ignorance. But, that's what pushed us forward. Because of that, we moved forward and learned. We progressed because we were disappointed in ourselves, our plans and hopes. We pursued knowledge to defend our goals and prove to ourselves that we were talented. We polished our vision of the world, feeling that objectivity can be seen only by those who go to the end in knowledge. After all, anyone who respects himself, is confident in his mind, and considers himself a talented person.
It is not so scary to make mistakes and choose the wrong direction as it is scary to never realize your mistake and change the direction.
The first trading ideas are always very simple. To experienced people they seem silly, but they forget that they used to generate them themselves.
There is an absolute need to test strategies in practice. The key to the mental growth of the individual, is self-criticism, testing and verifying the fallacy of one's beliefs. But, even the most ridiculous things that come to mind must be refuted by personal practical experience. Empirically. Otherwise, a person will live with illusions all his life.
People who come to the foreign exchange market, start to learn. As the initial bonus they have a powerful motivation generated by desire to get rich, and belief in their uniqueness, intuition, luck, talent and intellect. The first thing they need is to have their theories tested. The faster and easier these tests are, the faster and further people go in learning about the world.
However, at every stage of cognition, a serious intellectual barrier is erected. Overcoming it may not be within everyone's reach. In some cases, a person has great ability, but simply does not have the time to learn.
In this branch I propose to tell "infantile" trading strategies of beginners, and perhaps some of them will find here their own thoughts ...
It should be useful for professional growth of any trader. :)
This is a very poetic and generally correct. Everything I said below is IMHO.
I would not talk about naive strategies, but about naive PARADIGM, otherwise you have to list thousands of indicators, candlestick patterns and money management algorithms that make no sense or are the opposite of how to act (like martin).
The essence of the naive paradigm, that - MARKET IS SIMPLE, few people are trying to become an astronaut or president of the country, realizing the lack of certain skills and resources, but many believe that they can take away the dough from Nobel Prize winners in physics / mathematics or similar qualifications, with 10-11 figure capitals $.
I am not saying that there is no chance, the market is like wildlife, not only supergiant but many different creatures, big and small, complex and primitive survive here, but! The search (evolution) for working variants, viable, competitive organisms (TS) takes many years, probably decades and the result is not guaranteed. This is the main understanding that comes in the first 5 years of trading and TC development. Market, econometrics, Artificial Intelligence, you have to be SICK, OBSESSED, otherwise nothing will work, there will be no motivation to continue. If you have an incurable disease of the market and statistics, if there is an opportunity to do it for 5-8 hours a day with a clear head, the result will certainly be not in a year or 2, but I think that in 5-10 years something will begin to turn out.
It's poetic and generally correct. Everything I've said below is IMHO.
I would not talk about naive strategies, but about naive PARADIGM, otherwise I would have to list thousands of indicators, candlestick patterns and money management algorithms that do not make sense or are the opposite (for example, martin) of how one should act.
The essence of the naive paradigm, that - MARKET IS SIMPLE, few people are trying to become an astronaut or president of the country, realizing the lack of certain skills and resources, but many believe that they can take away the dough from Nobel Prize winners in physics / mathematics or similar qualifications, with 10-11 figure capitals $.
I am not saying that there is no chance, the market is like wildlife, not only supergiant but many different creatures, big and small, complex and primitive survive here, but! The search (evolution) for working variants, viable, competitive organisms (TS) takes many years, probably decades and the result is not guaranteed. This is the main understanding that comes in the first 5 years of trading and TC development. Market, econometrics, Artificial Intelligence, you have to be SICK, OBSESSED, otherwise nothing will work, there will be no motivation to continue. Well, if you are not cured by the market and statistics, if there is an opportunity to do it for 5-8 hours a day with a clear head, then the result will certainly be not in a year or 2 years certainly, but I think that in 5-10 years something will begin to turn out.
I like your opinion. There is nothing to argue with.
I should add that I brought up the topic of "naive" strategies, rather than general paradigms, because it makes perfect sense to me and has a practical purpose. As a developer, I want to create a convenient toolkit for beginners. A kind of constructor that allows you to program strategies by drawing on the chart. Newbies need the fastest test of their infantile market theories, and I'm interested in helping them. Therefore, I need to know the specific types of their market "fantasies".
I like your opinion. Nothing to argue with.
I should add that I brought up the topic of "naive" strategies rather than general paradigms - because it makes perfect sense to me and has a practical purpose. As a developer, I want to create a convenient toolkit for beginners. A kind of constructor that allows you to program strategies by drawing on the chart. Newbies need the fastest test of their infantile market theories, and I'm interested in helping them. Therefore, I need to know the specific types of their market "fantasies".
I remember seeing your "not trading" somewhere. (Or am I wrong?).
And you have traded for at least a couple of years, you may get a "beginner's toolkit". And many of the pitfalls that you just can't see now will be revealed to you.
Maybe it's just me, but the discussion touched very little on the main point: "Naive Beginner Strategies."
But, why only beginners?
Anyone with a strategy can look naive in the eyes of others. Right or wrong determines the market and the longevity of a strategy.
I compare strategies with songs, there are hit parades about which in a year no one will remember and there are songs that are relevant in decades.
I like your opinion. There is nothing to argue with.
I should add that I brought up the topic of "naive" strategies rather than general paradigms - because it makes perfect sense to me and has a practical purpose. As a developer, I want to create a convenient toolkit for beginners. A kind of constructor that allows you to program strategies by drawing on the chart. Newbies need the fastest test of their infantile market theories, and I'm interested in helping them. Therefore, I need to know the specific types of their market "fantasies".
Well, make an interface for checking simple strategies written in a simple scripting language (develop it yourself on mql5), preferably on the fly (it's possible, I did it myself). For example, you can write:
directPosition = (price.close.ema(5) - price.close.ema(10)).sign
It is calculated on the fly and draws the equity graph and the main statistics(net, sharp , etc.).
When a newbie understands that it is tiresome to manually search parameters and indicators, then add the gen.optimizer and so on.
And of course if some set-up will be to your liking then mql code will be generated for an indicator or owl and it will be run in a detailed tester of a metatrader and sent to "production".
Well, make an interface for checking simple strategies written in a simple scripting language (develop it yourself on mql5), preferably on the fly (it is possible, I did it myself). For example, you can write:
directPosition = (price.close.ema(5) - price.close.ema(10)).sign
It is calculated on the fly and draws the equity graph and the main statistics(net, sharp , etc.).
When a newbie understands that it is tiresome to manually search parameters and indicators, then add the gen.optimizer and so on.
And of course if somebody likes a certain set-up then he generates an mql code for an indicator or owl and runs it through a detailed metatrader's tester and goes into "production".