Is forex education misleading or everyone is stupid? - page 4
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Introduction
I am a programmer, I was introduced to forex market by a client in 2015. After studying the markets I then published an EA on the market August 2016, sold just 5 copies and rented 10 copies for one month only, because I believed then that too many users will affect EAs performance so I removed it from the market. It was a night trading EA as my research back then showed that the only profitable strategy was night trading. There was one best selling night trading EA back then, tried searching it but couldn’t find it. It was performing well but had a flaw of massive drawdown which cancelled a lot of gains in one bad trade, but still profitable in long term far & far better than anything on offer in that period, even today. So mine was better in ‘stable drawdown’ terms. Point is, 6 years later there’s still no profitable strategy besides night trading. You can check it yourself, even signal providers, the only stable ones are those with ‘flouting losses’ base strategies (Overall losers cause they’ll have to deposit at some point to manage drawdown) and night trading.
Main
I spent a lot of time researching about forex market every time I get a forex client, so lately I spent a great time trying to figure out why everyone is so stupid and couldn’t solve a simple equation, which is:
· Find a certain pattern with a probability of 51% or more
· 49% of the time you lose, make sure you lose less or equal to what you profited 51% of the time
Simple!!!!
So I worked! I started with the most popular indicator which is Japanese Candlesticks, wrote a script that calculates accuracy of certain pattern during certain period of time e.g. how many profitable inside bars in the last 2 years, by profitable I mean 2 pips & more at least.
After 8 months of coding I reached the following conclusions
· Not a single popular pattern is profitable, not even one!
· 90% indicators are moving averages. Pointless to combine them, they do the same thing!
· No such thing as Naked or Price action strategy, it’s a joke because candlesticks are momentum indicators! Duh!
· Forex is a utilitarian market, Retail trading account for only 10% of the $6.6 trillion per day traded volume.
· Most retail trading income comes from Marketing, Yep! The gurus, telegram/Instagram signals and EAs. Almost no one makes money from actual trading. Why?
· Stock Market and Forex market is apple and oranges, nothing in common. So why use candlesticks that were designed for Stocks on Forex?
· Forex Market is random. RANDOM
Okay these are a facts you won’t find anywhere on the internet because the moment your search include the word ‘forex’ then you will bombarded with all sort of forex marketing material. E.g. googling a simple newbie question like, how forex prices move, will give you a ‘Market maker strategy’ crap as first result or shit like supply and demand, like WTF I just want to know where my $1 I lost went!
So by Random I mean every single transactions going through the market will affect its movement. e.g. Your 0.01 lot sell trade on EURUSD pair means there’s 0.01 units of USD taken off the market, so EURUSD quotes must be adjusted, so is GBPUSD, so is USDJPY, EURGBP and all other pairs! Your little trade on EURUSD will affect all other pairs! YES Market marker strategy is just a crap marketing gimmick made up by the ‘Gurus’. It’s impossible for one individual or a bank to influence/manipulate a pair to move in a particular way.
Bold claims I just made there right? So let me prove it to you. Easy, here’s an exercise for you, do the following equation:
· EURUSD = EURJPY / USDJPY
This means when you divide EURJPY quotes by USDJPY you will get EURUSD quotes. Which then means trades done on EURUSD or any other pair will affect every other pair! Meaning for a ‘Market marker’ to manipulate EURUSD prices to his advantage, he will have to manipulate all the other pairs! This is called Triangular Equilibrium. The entire system is designed around maintaining a stable equilibrium. As one grow in value, several others have to decrease by equivalent amount and that’s why forex charts are generally in range.
Real trading is done on EURUSD, price moved BUT all the other pairs prices must be adjusted as well, meaning more than 90% moves are random. Why no one know this? So much time wasted trying to find a profitable system using candlesticks which are completely useless!
Conclusion
If you compare Apple stock chart with EURUSD chart you will notice that Apple has gained a lot while EURUSD price today is generally the same as it was decades ago. Forex exist to provide a service while stocks are for creating wealth. Everything on the internet about forex is LIES, it’s there just to get money from you, not the other way around, and that’s why you will not find anything about something like Triangular Equilibrium.
It’s mathematically impossible to profit from forex market using traditional methods currently being in used because everyone is looking for a pattern to repeat itself in a random environment…like how???. This is why 98% traders are losers.
It’s not all gloom and doom though because we have Probability mathematics! We can examine the chains of non-overlapping events that follow each other. Probability trees and hypotheses, we can calculate entries based on market processes using fractal-probability chains, e.g. С(n,k) = n! / ( k! * ( n - k )! )
Basically everything in the universe is fractal, so we can use math to calculate defined fractals given that the forex market is random. We currently do this with weather
Have I realized this from the beginning, I wouldn’t have wasted so much time. I am currently testing a mathematical approach and it’s promising. I invite all programmers who like math like I do to my project I’m currently busy with.
You made good points but to understand how markets are tamed even by a mathematical approach You should look into the techniques used in trading championships. They are a mix of technical, patterns, bias and money management where diversification and position sizing became crucial.
too many new traders cant be bothered even to learn the basics.
You say it as if it is clear what these basics should be. But this is not the case. The market is overflowing with mumbo-jumbo. In that sense forex education is very much misleading. Can you tell me in five sentences what are the basics?
Then we choose one topic, for example: Eliott Waves, Fibonacci Levels and deal with only one topic.
You have to be PATIENT in learning here.
It's worth learning the basics of MQL4 or MQL5 and examining specific cases in the chart, creating simple indicators, mathematical calculations, statistical studies, etc. It's not difficult.
Of course, it is not necessary to learn programming. We can examine specific things manually on the chart and there is no problem with that either. It is important to be patient and research a specific topic.
It is worth reading a publication on a given topic or analyzing the content of a specific trader. There is no point in writing him off immediately. After some time, we will conclude for ourselves whether he is telling the truth or not.
I recommend this approach to learning, order in your own affairs, in your mind, in your heart, in your learning. It's not about being perfect, but about learning and working very well, despite our failures. Regards.
Introduction
I am a programmer, I was introduced to forex market by a client in 2015. After studying the markets I then published an EA on the market August 2016, sold just 5 copies and rented 10 copies for one month only, because I believed then that too many users will affect EAs performance so I removed it from the market. It was a night trading EA as my research back then showed that the only profitable strategy was night trading. There was one best selling night trading EA back then, tried searching it but couldn’t find it. It was performing well but had a flaw of massive drawdown which cancelled a lot of gains in one bad trade, but still profitable in long term far & far better than anything on offer in that period, even today. So mine was better in ‘stable drawdown’ terms. Point is, 6 years later there’s still no profitable strategy besides night trading. You can check it yourself, even signal providers, the only stable ones are those with ‘flouting losses’ base strategies (Overall losers cause they’ll have to deposit at some point to manage drawdown) and night trading.
Main
I spent a lot of time researching about forex market every time I get a forex client, so lately I spent a great time trying to figure out why everyone is so stupid and couldn’t solve a simple equation, which is:
· Find a certain pattern with a probability of 51% or more
· 49% of the time you lose, make sure you lose less or equal to what you profited 51% of the time
Simple!!!!
So I worked! I started with the most popular indicator which is Japanese Candlesticks, wrote a script that calculates accuracy of certain pattern during certain period of time e.g. how many profitable inside bars in the last 2 years, by profitable I mean 2 pips & more at least.
After 8 months of coding I reached the following conclusions
· Not a single popular pattern is profitable, not even one!
· 90% indicators are moving averages. Pointless to combine them, they do the same thing!
· No such thing as Naked or Price action strategy, it’s a joke because candlesticks are momentum indicators! Duh!
· Forex is a utilitarian market, Retail trading account for only 10% of the $6.6 trillion per day traded volume.
· Most retail trading income comes from Marketing, Yep! The gurus, telegram/Instagram signals and EAs. Almost no one makes money from actual trading. Why?
· Stock Market and Forex market is apple and oranges, nothing in common. So why use candlesticks that were designed for Stocks on Forex?
· Forex Market is random. RANDOM
Okay these are a facts you won’t find anywhere on the internet because the moment your search include the word ‘forex’ then you will bombarded with all sort of forex marketing material. E.g. googling a simple newbie question like, how forex prices move, will give you a ‘Market maker strategy’ crap as first result or shit like supply and demand, like WTF I just want to know where my $1 I lost went!
So by Random I mean every single transactions going through the market will affect its movement. e.g. Your 0.01 lot sell trade on EURUSD pair means there’s 0.01 units of USD taken off the market, so EURUSD quotes must be adjusted, so is GBPUSD, so is USDJPY, EURGBP and all other pairs! Your little trade on EURUSD will affect all other pairs! YES Market marker strategy is just a crap marketing gimmick made up by the ‘Gurus’. It’s impossible for one individual or a bank to influence/manipulate a pair to move in a particular way.
Bold claims I just made there right? So let me prove it to you. Easy, here’s an exercise for you, do the following equation:
· EURUSD = EURJPY / USDJPY
This means when you divide EURJPY quotes by USDJPY you will get EURUSD quotes. Which then means trades done on EURUSD or any other pair will affect every other pair! Meaning for a ‘Market marker’ to manipulate EURUSD prices to his advantage, he will have to manipulate all the other pairs! This is called Triangular Equilibrium. The entire system is designed around maintaining a stable equilibrium. As one grow in value, several others have to decrease by equivalent amount and that’s why forex charts are generally in range.
Real trading is done on EURUSD, price moved BUT all the other pairs prices must be adjusted as well, meaning more than 90% moves are random. Why no one know this? So much time wasted trying to find a profitable system using candlesticks which are completely useless!
Conclusion
If you compare Apple stock chart with EURUSD chart you will notice that Apple has gained a lot while EURUSD price today is generally the same as it was decades ago. Forex exist to provide a service while stocks are for creating wealth. Everything on the internet about forex is LIES, it’s there just to get money from you, not the other way around, and that’s why you will not find anything about something like Triangular Equilibrium.
It’s mathematically impossible to profit from forex market using traditional methods currently being in used because everyone is looking for a pattern to repeat itself in a random environment…like how???. This is why 98% traders are losers.
It’s not all gloom and doom though because we have Probability mathematics! We can examine the chains of non-overlapping events that follow each other. Probability trees and hypotheses, we can calculate entries based on market processes using fractal-probability chains, e.g. С(n,k) = n! / ( k! * ( n - k )! )
Basically everything in the universe is fractal, so we can use math to calculate defined fractals given that the forex market is random. We currently do this with weather
Have I realized this from the beginning, I wouldn’t have wasted so much time. I am currently testing a mathematical approach and it’s promising. I invite all programmers who like math like I do to my project I’m currently busy with.
There are countless strategies that are way more better than night trading. The true problem most have, and that most have heard of is the 90, 90, 90 rule and of course with that hand in hand 95% + traders lose money in the markets every day. These statistics are not thumb sucked, they are true, and very much a reality. All because one listens to the other. I wrote in my blog about this. My advice to you would be to enter the professional world of trading, get into a institute of your choice, Not prop firms, a real institute where you can be taught what the rules of the markets are, how to analyse them, Learn VaR and CVaR and learn to trade like a professional. A mere 3% or less today knows what it feels like to manage large portfolios, Getting good at trading requires a lot of effort and commitment, years and years of knowledge and a deep understanding of what markets are about. You need to move through many different market cycles and market phases in your lifetime to have a proper understanding that short term horizons never work out. Its not going to work by saying when this line crosses here and that one crosses there, you now take a buy or a sell. It never worked like that before, people created those things, and those people are not professionals. If you want to succeed, get into an institute, study hard, go work on trading floors around the world, Goldman will be a good place to start, learn the secrets, techniques and what it takes to press the button. Build a portfolio over time, and finally teach others what you have learnt, not that many do, they keep it to themselves, but you dont have to.
Bold claims I just made there right? So let me prove it to you. Easy, here’s an exercise for you, do the following equation:
· EURUSD = EURJPY / USDJPY
Give it a go :D
Open 3 positions at the time so they will hedge each other.
when prices will change I bet your profit will float in between +X to -X ... close all positions when you are on profit, and start again.
Stop looking for wining strategy- fing the one that always loose :D Then trade against it ;-)
Another example of must win strategy?
Hedge trades on different brokers to profit on Swaps - you can take adventage of different swaps on different base currency and utilise SWAP free accounts.
Anyone who has profitable EA wouldn't sell it here ;-D