EURUSD Technical Analysis 2014, 27.07 - 03.08: Bearish - page 2
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newdigital, 2014.07.28 16:01
Mondays EURUSD Reversal Range (based on dailyfx article)
The EURUSD has opened the trading week within a 30 pip trading range. Resistance, as marked above by the R3 camarilla pivot, resides at 1.3445. Support is currently held below at 1.3415 as marked by S3 support. Range traders will look to take advantage of prices reversals inside of the range as the EURUSD drifts towards either of these pre-defined values.
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newdigital, 2014.07.28 20:04
EUR/USD firms on disappointing U.S. home sales data
In U.S. trading, EUR/USD was up 0.08% at 1.3440, up from a session low of 1.3427 and off a high of 1.3442.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.3421, Friday's low, and resistance at 1.3485, Thursday's high.
The dollar took a hit on Monday after the National Association of Realtors reported that U.S. pending home sales fell 1.1% in June, disappointing expectations for a 0.5% gain.
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EURUSD, M5, 2014.07.28
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EURUSD H4 price is on secondary flat within primary bearish floating between 1.3424 support and 1.3443 resistance levels.
If H4 price will break 1.3424 support level on close bar so the primary bearish will be continuing.
If not so we may see ranging market condition within primary bearish.
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EURUSD, H4, 2014.07.29
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newdigital, 2014.07.29 09:15
What Could Make Or Break the Dollar This Week? (based on forexminute article)
Last week was a really good week to be a dollar bull. The currency gained against all of its major counterparts and even established new highs against some. EUR/USD is currently trading at its 8-month lows around 1.3430; GBP/USD tapped its 4-week lows around 1.6960; USD/CAD is at its 5-week highs above 1.08100.
However, the currency’s fate on the charts could quickly turn this week as the focus shifts back to the United States and the reports due out of the country. The following are the biggest event risks for USD-pairs in the next few days:
1. Q2 2014 Advance GDP
Price action should start to get interesting by Wednesday when the advance GDP report for the second quarter of 2014 is released. Due at 6:00 pm GMT, the report is anticipated to print at 3.1%.
Analysts expect a rebound from the weakness in economic growth that we saw in the first three months of the year because the weather has significantly improved and should not have hampered economic activity anymore in April to June.
2. FOMC Statement
Policymakers are then scheduled to take center stage with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement. At 6:00 pm GMT on Wednesday, July 30, no changes to interest rates are expected to be announced.
The Federal Reserve has been notably optimistic about labor market conditions in its past few announcements. And so, market participants will be looking for traces of the central bank’s positivity in this week’s upcoming statement too. The lack of which may cause the dollar to give up ground against some of its counterparts.
3. NFP report for July
The jobs report for July is arguably the biggest market-mover for the dollar this week. On Friday, August 1, at 12:30 pm GMT, markets expect to see another month of strong job growth with the forecast up at 230,000 to follow the 288,000 reading that we saw for June.
Federal Reserve Chairman Janet Yellen as well as other key Fed policymakers have been vocal about how important the health of the labor market is in their future monetary policy decisions. And so, the release could once again spark volatility in the markets, like it usually does every month.
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newdigital, 2014.07.29 12:46
EURUSD orders 29 July
Currently 1.3432 also pinned down by bids and offers
Sellers 1.3450 1.3460-70 1.3475-80 1.3490-3500 1.3520-30 1.3545 1.3555-60
Buyers 1.3415-25 (stops below) 1.3400 (barrier option- stops below) 1.3380 1.3370 1.3350
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newdigital, 2014.07.29 18:07
US Dollar May Rise Before Key Data on Firming Consumer Confidence (based on dailyfx article)
July’s Consumer Confidence reading is in focus, with expectations suggesting the index will rise to a six-year high of 85.4. The outcome may help to set the stage for an overstuffed week of high-profile US releases including the FOMC policy announcement, the second-quarter GDP reading and July’s Nonfarm Payrolls number.
The central object of speculation is the length of the time gap between October’s end of the Fed’s “QE3”stimulus program and the beginning of interest rate hikes. With that in mind, upbeat US economic outcomes are likely to support the view that tightening will materialize relatively sooner versus later, pushing the US Dollar higher. Needless to say, soft outcomes are likely to yield opposite result. We remain long the greenback against the Euro as well as the Canadian Dollar.
The Australian Dollar narrowly underperformed in otherwise quiet Asian trade, sliding 0.13 percent on average against its leading counterparts. The move lower tracked an overnight decline in S&P 500 index futures, hinting at eroding risk appetite as the catalyst behind selling pressure facing the sentiment-sensitive currency.
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newdigital, 2014.07.30 07:04
Trading Video: Dollar at Resistance, S&P 500 at Support Ahead of GDP and FOMC (based on dailyfx article)
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newdigital, 2014.07.30 09:54
Trading the News: U.S. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (based on dailyfx article)
The advance Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report may heighten the appeal of the U.S. dollar as the world’s largest economy is expected to grow an annualized 3.0% in the second-quarter.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
A marked rebound in the growth rate may spark a greater dissent within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) as a growing number of central bank officials scale back their dovish tone for monetary policy, and Chair Janet Yellen may come under increased pressure to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later as the outlook for growth and inflation improves.
The pickup in wage growth along with the ongoing improvement in the labor market may generate a better-than-expected GDP print, and a large uptick in the growth rate may generate a bullish reaction in the greenback (bearish EUR/USD) as it fuels interest rate expectations.
However, sticky inflation paired with the persistent slack in the housing market may weigh on the growth rate, and a disappointing GDP release may spur a near-term selloff in the reserve currency as it gives the Fed greater scope to retain its highly accommodative policy stance for an extended period of time.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: U.S. Economy Expands 3.0% or Greater
- Need to see red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short trade on EURUSD
- If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EURUSD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: 2Q GDP Reading Disappoints- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EURUSD trade
- Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
Potential Price Targets For The ReleaseEUR/USD Daily
- Despite oversold RSI signal, downside targets remain favored
- Interim Resistance: 1.3650 (78.6% expansion) to 1.3670 (61.8% retracement)
- Interim Support: 1.3370 (38.2% retracement) to 1.3380 (38.2% expansion)
Impact that the U.S. GDP report has had on EUR/USD during the last release(1 Hour post event )
(End of Day post event)
2014
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EURUSD, M5, 2014.07.30
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EURUSD M5 : 33 pips price movement by USD - GDP news event
EURUSD H4 price is on secondary flat within primary bearish floating between 1.3424 support and 1.3443 resistance levels.
If H4 price will break 1.3424 support level on close bar so the primary bearish will be continuing.
If not so we may see ranging market condition within primary bearish.
1.3424 support level was broken on H4 and D1 timeframe. So, if you used my recommendation and placed sell stop pending order at 1.3424 so you should get 24 pips in profit for now (by equity).
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newdigital, 2014.07.30 21:01
2014-07-29 18:00 GMT (or 20:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
USD - Federal Funds Rate = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other banks overnight. Short term interest rates are the paramount factor in currency valuation - traders look at most other indicators merely to predict how rates will change in the future
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US Federal Reserve leaves policy unchanged despite stronger growth
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday (July 30) stuck to its plan of holding its base interest rate near zero while steadily trimming its stimulus, despite a surprisingly strong second-quarter economic growth report.
The Fed as expected reduced its monthly bond purchases by US$10 billion, taking the programme to US$25 billion a month, but said the low federal funds rate remains needed to support growth and improvement in the labour market.
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EURUSD, M5, 2014.07.30
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EURUSD M5 : 32 pips price movement by USD - Federal Funds Rate news event