USDJPY Technical Analysis 2014 30.03 - 06.04: Ranging or Reversal?
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newdigital, 2014.03.29 12:05
USDJPY Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Neutral- USD/JPY Fails to Break Above Range Despite Strong Rise in Consumption
- Forex Trading Video: Yen Crosses and S&P 500 Checked Lower, Break Risk?
Forex Trading Video: Yen Crosses and S&P 500 Checked Lower, Break Risk? :
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newdigital, 2014.03.30 15:02
Forex Fundamentals - Weekly outlook: March 31 - April 4The dollar rose to two-week highs against the yen on Friday, as indications that China’s government is prepared to do more to shore up the cooling economy bolstered risk appetite.
Market sentiment was boosted after China's premier Li Keqiang said the country has policies in place to counter economic volatility. The remarks eased concerns over recent signs of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.
Data on Friday showing that U.S. consumer spending rose 0.3% last month after a downwardly revised gain of 0.2% in January also lifted the dollar higher against the yen.
USD/JPY rose 0.64% to end Friday’s session at 102.83, the highest since March 12. For the week, the pair gained 0.57%.
The euro edged up from one-month lows against the dollar following the comments, with EUR/USD inching up 0.07% to settle at 1.3752, recovering from lows of 1.3702. The pair ended the week down 0.61%.
The euro remained under pressure after European Central Bank officials indicated earlier in the week that they are considering fresh policy options to stave off the risk of deflation in the region.
ECB governing council member and Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann said Tuesday that a negative deposit rate could be an appropriate way to address the impact of strong gains in the euro.
The same day ECB President Mario Draghi that the central bank stood ready to act if inflation slipped lower than the ECB expected.
Data on Friday showing that the annual rate of inflation in Spain slipped 0.2% in March fuelled concerns that deflation could threaten the economic recovery in the euro area. A separate report showed that the annual rate of inflation in Germany slowed in March.
The dollar was lower against the pound on Friday, with GBP/USD up 0.185 to 1.6640 at the close of trade.
Sterling remained supported after a report on Friday showed that U.K. fourth quarter growth was left unrevised at 0.7% for the final three months of 2013. Another report showed that the U.K. current account deficit came in at a larger-than-expected 22.4 billion pounds in the fourth quarter.
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar rose to a four-month high of 0.9295 against the greenback on Friday, before trimming back gains slightly to settle at 0.9247. AUD/USD ended the week with gains of 1.33%.
The Aussie was boosted as recent reports indicated that the economy is picking up, while hopes for fresh stimulus measures from China also supported the Australian’s dollar’s gains. Meanwhile, NZD/USD edged down 0.18% to 0.8654 at the close on Friday, after hitting two-and-a-half year highs of 0.8696 earlier in the session. The pair ended the week with gains of 1.31%.
In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for March for further indications on the strength of the labor market, while Monday’s euro zone inflation report will also be in focus, ahead of the ECB policy meeting and press conference on Thursday.
Monday, March 31
- Japan is to release preliminary data on industrial production.
- New Zealand is to produce private sector data on business confidence, while Australia is to publish data on private sector credit.
- Switzerland is to publish its KOF economic barometer.
- The U.K. is to release data on net lending to individuals.
- The euro zone is to produce preliminary data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
- Canada is to publish the monthly report on gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth.
- Japan is to publish its Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing index, as well as data on average cash earnings.
- China is to release data on manufacturing activity.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia is to announce its benchmark interest rate and publish its rate statement, which outlines economic conditions and the factors affecting the monetary policy decision.
- The euro zone is to release data on the unemployment rate. Germany is release data on the change in the number of people unemployed, while Spain and Italy are to release reports on manufacturing activity.
- Switzerland is to release its SVME manufacturing index.
- The U.K. is to release data on manufacturing activity.
- Later Tuesday, the Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing growth.
- Australia is to produce data on building approvals, a leading indicator of future construction activity.
- The U.K. is to produce private sector data on house price inflation, as well as official data on construction activity.
- In the euro zone, Spain is release data on the change in the number of people unemployed.
- The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on factory orders.
- Australia is to release data on retail sales and the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports.
- China is to produce data on service sector activity.
- The euro zone is to release data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity. Spain and Italy are to publish data on service sector activity.
- The U.K. is also to release data on service sector growth, while the Bank of England is to announce its benchmark interest rate.
- Later in the day, the European Central Bank is to announce its benchmark interest rate. The announcement is to be followed by a press conference with President Mario Draghi.
- Both the U.S. and Canada are to publish data on the trade balance, and the U.S. is also to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.
- Germany is to publish data on factory orders.
- Canada is to publish data on the change in the number of people employed and the unemployment rate. The nation is also to publish its Ivey PMI
- The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
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newdigital, 2014.03.30 15:05
USDJPY Fundamentals - weekly outlook: March 31 - April 4The yen fell to two-week lows against the dollar on Friday after comments by China’s premiere indicating that the country is ready to make moves to stimulate its economy dampened safe haven demand for the Japanese currency.
USD/JPY rose 0.64% to end Friday’s session at 102.83, the highest since March 12. For the week, the pair gained 0.57%.
The pair is likely to find support at 102.02, Friday’s low and resistance at 103.41, the high of March 11.
Risk appetite was boosted after China's premier Li Keqiang said the country has policies in place to counter economic volatility. The remarks eased concerns over recent signs of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy.
Data on Friday showing that U.S. consumer spending rose 0.3% last month after a downwardly revised gain of 0.2% in January also lifted the dollar higher against the yen.
A separate report showed that the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index slipped to 80 in March, down from 81.6 the month before. It was higher than the preliminary March reading of 79.9 but below forecasts of 80.5.
Earlier Friday, reports showed that the annual rate of consumer inflation in Japan rose 1.3% in February, indicating that the Bank of Japan’s stimulus program aimed at combatting deflation is working.
However, another report showed that household spending fell 2.5% in February, against expectations for a 0.1% increase.
Elsewhere, the euro was also higher against the yen on Friday, with EUR/JPY advancing 0.71% to 141.40, up from an almost one-month trough of 139.95.
The euro’s gains looked likely to be held in check after European Central Bank officials indicated earlier in the week that they are considering fresh policy options to stave off the risk of deflation in the region.
Data on Friday showing that the annual rate of inflation in Spain slipped 0.2% in March fuelled concerns that deflation could threaten the economic recovery in the euro area. A separate report showed that the annual rate of inflation in Germany slowed in March.
In the week ahead, investors will be looking to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for March for further indications on the strength of the labor market. Japan is to release data on industrial production.
Monday, March 31
- Japan is to release preliminary data on industrial production.
- Japan is to publish its Tankan manufacturing and non-manufacturing index, as well as data on average cash earnings.
- The Institute of Supply Management is to publish a report on U.S. manufacturing growth.
- The U.S. is to release the ADP report on private sector job creation, which leads the government’s nonfarm payrolls report by two days. The U.S. is also to release data on factory orders.
- The U.S. is to publish data on the trade balance, as well as the weekly report on initial jobless claims. Meanwhile, the ISM is to publish a report service sector activity.
- The U.S. is to round up the week with the closely watched government data on nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate.
If D1 price will break 102.68 resistance level on close bar from below to above so we may the reversal to primary bullish from bearish
If not so price will be on ranging market condition with good possibility to continue the bearish condition
- Recommendation for short: n/a
- Recommendation to go long: watch the price for breaking 102.68 resistance level on close D1 bar for possible buy trade
- Trading Summary: breakout
D1 price crossed 102.68 resistance on close bar so if someone opened buy trade (buy stop order) on 102.68 level - you may be in 67 pips in profit for now.
Next resistance level to be broken is 103.43 :
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newdigital, 2014.04.01 18:32
2014-04-01 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
- past data is 53.2
- forecast data is 54.0
- actual data is 53.7 according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
==========
U.S. Manufacturing Activity Expands At Slightly Faster Rate In March
Activity in the U.S. manufacturing sector expanded at a slightly faster rate in the month of March, according to a report released by the Institute for Supply Management on Tuesday, although the index of activity in the sector rose by a little less than expected.
The ISM said its purchasing managers index crept up to 53.7 in March from 53.2 in February, with a reading above 50 indicating growth in the manufacturing sector. Economists had expected the index to climb to a reading of 54.0.
Bradley Holcomb, chair of the ISM Manufacturing Business Survey Committee, said, "Several comments from the panel reflect favorable demand and good business conditions, with some lingering concerns about the particularly adverse weather conditions across the country."
The modest increase by the headline index was partly due to a substantial rebound in production, as the production index surged up to 55.9 in March after tumbling to 48.2 in February.
The ISM said the sharp jump by the production index reflects the largest month-over-month increase since June of 2009.
USDJPY M5 : 21 pips range price movement by USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI news event :
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newdigital, 2014.04.02 14:42
2014-04-02 12:15 GMT (or 14:15 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]
- past data is 178K
- forecast data is 195K
- actual data is 191K according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
==========
U.S. Private Sector Job Growth Falls Just Of Estimates In March
Employment in the U.S. private sector showed a notable increase in the month of March, according to a report released by payroll processor ADP on Wednesday, with the report also showing a substantial upward revision to the job growth in the previous month.
ADP said private sector employment increased by 191,000 jobs in March following an upwardly revised increase of 178,000 jobs in February.
While the job growth in March came in slightly below estimates for an addition of 195,000 jobs, the job growth in February was well above the previously reported increase of 139,000 jobs.
USDJPY M5 : 22 pips range price movement by USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event
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newdigital, 2014.04.04 08:31
USD/JPY Technical Analysis (adapted from dailyfx article)- USD/JPY Technical Strategy: Long at 102.82
- Support:103.43 (23.6% Fib exp.)
- Resistance: 104.11 (00.0% Fib exp.)
The US Dollar advanced for a fifth consecutive day against the Japanese Yen having launched higher as expected after carving out a Triangle chart pattern. Prices are now testing resistance at 104.11, the 00.0% Fibonacci expansion.
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newdigital, 2014.04.04 09:49
Trading the News: U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (adapted from dailyfx article)
- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) to Increase 200K; Unemployment Rate to Slip to 6.6%.
- February NFP Exceeded Market Expectations for First Time in Three-Months.
The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report may in still a bullish outlook
for the dollar (bearish EUR/USD) as employment is expected to increase
another 200K in March, while the jobless rate is anticipated to narrow
to an annualized 6.6% from 6.7%.
What’s Expected:
Why Is This Event Important:
Indeed, a material pickup in job growth may put increased pressure on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to normalize monetary policy sooner rather than later, but the reserve currency may struggle to hold its ground should the NFP report dampen the outlook for growth and inflation.
The resilience in private sector consumption along with the ongoing decline in planned job cuts may generate a positive employment report, and a large uptick in job growth may highlight an improved forecast for the USD as the Fed continues to see a stronger recovery in 2014.
Nevertheless, the persistent slack in the real economy paired with the
downtick in business confidence may drag on NFPs, and a dismal print may
trigger a sharp selloff in the greenback as it weighs on interest rate
expectations.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: NFP Climb 200K+; Unemployment Slips to 6.6%
- Need to see red, five-minute candle following the NFP print to consider a short trade on EUR/USD
- If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, sell EUR/USD with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable limit
- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
- Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in the opposite direction
EUR/USD Daily
- Risks Larger Correction After Failed Attempts to Close Above 1.3800
- Relative Strength Index Carving Bearish Trend
- Interim Resistance: 1.3960-70 (61.8 expansion)
- Interim Support: 1.3650 (78.6% expansion) to 1.3660 (61.8 retracement)
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) February 2014 :
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newdigital, 2014.04.04 14:39
2014-04-04 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
- past data is 197K
- forecast data is 200K
- actual data is 192K according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
==========
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USDJPY M5 : 51 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event
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This is breakout going on for D1 timeframe on open bar:
H4 timeframe - bullish.
W1 timeframe. price is on bullish ranging within 100.75 support and 103.75 resistance levels.
If D1 price will break 102.68 resistance level on close bar from below to above so we may the reversal to primary bullish from bearishIf not so price will be on ranging market condition with good possibility to continue the bearish condition
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on USDJPY price movement for this coming week)
2014-03-30 23:50 GMT (or 01:50 MQ MT5 time) | [JPY - Industrial Production]
2014-03-31 05:00 GMT (or 07:00 MQ MT5 time) | [JPY - Housing Starts]
2014-03-31 13:45 GMT (or 15:45 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Chicago PMI]
2014-03-31 13:55 GMT (or 15:55 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Fed Chair Yellen Speech]
2014-03-31 23:50 GMT (or 01:50 MQ MT5 time) | [JPY - Tankan Index]
2014-04-01 01:00 GMT (or 03:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Manufacturing PMI]
2014-04-01 01:30 GMT (or 03:30 MQ MT5 time) | [JPY - Average Cash Earnings]
2014-04-01 01:45 GMT (or 03:45 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI]
2014-04-01 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]
2014-04-02 12:15 GMT (or 14:15 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]
2014-04-03 01:00 GMT (or 03:00 MQ MT5 time) | [CNY - Non-Manufacturing PMI]
2014-04-03 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Trade Balance]2014-04-03 14:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]
2014-04-04 12:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on USDJPY price movement
SUMMARY : reversal
TREND : breakout
Intraday Chart