EURUSD Technical Analysis 16.03 - 23.03: Ranging
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newdigital, 2014.03.15 17:34
EURUSD Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Neutral
-
The Euro melt-up was in full swing this week until ECB President Draghi spoke on Thursday.
- Forex seasonality over the past 20 years favors a stronger EURUSD in March
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newdigital, 2014.03.17 11:27
2013-03-17 10:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - CPI]
- past data is 0.8%
- forecast data is 0.8%
- actual data is 0.7% according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
==========
Euro zone CPI unexpectedly slows to 0.7% in FebruaryConsumer price inflation in the euro zone rose less than initially estimated in February, underlining concerns over the threat of deflation in the region, official data showed on Monday.
In a report, Eurostat said consumer price inflation rose by a seasonally adjusted 0.7% last month, down from a preliminary estimate of 0.8%. Euro zone inflation rose by 0.8% in January.
The rate remains firmly below the European Central Bank's target of near but just below 2%.
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EURUSD M5 : 13 pips price movement by EUR - CPI news event
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newdigital, 2014.03.16 12:51
Forex Fundamentals - Weekly outlook: March 17 - 21The yen rose against the dollar and the euro on Friday as safe haven demand was bolstered by fears over an economic slowdown in China and tensions over the crisis in Ukraine, ahead of a referendum in Crimea.
Monday, March 17
- The euro zone is to release data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
- Canada is to produce data on foreign investments.
- The U.S. is to publish data on manufacturing activity in the Empire State, as well as reports on industrial production and long term securities transactions.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia is to publish the minutes of its latest policy meeting, which contain valuable insights into economic conditions from the bank’s perspective.
- The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.
- Canada is to publish data on manufacturing sales. Later Tuesday, Bank of Canada Governor Steven Poloz is to speak, his comments will be closely watched.
- The U.S. is to produce data on consumer inflation, in addition to reports on building permits and housing starts.
- Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is to speak at an event in London.
- Japan is to publish data on the trade balance, the difference in value between imports and exports. Meanwhile, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak at an event in Tokyo.
- The U.K. is to release official data on the change in the number of people unemployed and the unemployment rate, as well as data on average earnings and public sector borrowing. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is to publish the minutes of its most recent policy setting meeting.
- The ZEW Institute is to publish a report on economic expectations in Switzerland, a leading indicator of economic health.
- Canada is to release data on wholesale sales.
- The Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish economic forecasts for inflation and growth. The Fed statement is to be followed by a press conference with Chair Janet Yellen.
- Later Wednesday, New Zealand is to publish data on fourth quarter gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and the leading indicator of economic growth.
- Germany is to release data on producer price inflation.
- BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is to speak at an event in Tokyo.
- The Swiss National Bank is to announce its libor rate. The bank is also to publish its quarterly monetary policy assessment.
- Political leaders and finance ministers from the EU are to hold the first day of an economic summit in Brussels.
- The U.K. is to release private sector data on industrial order expectations. The U.K. government is to make its annual budget statement.
- The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims, as well as data on existing home sales and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.
- Markets in Japan are to remain closed for a national holiday.
- The euro zone is to release data on the current account.
- Meanwhile, political leaders and finance ministers from the European Union are to hold the second day of an economic summit in Brussels.
- The U.K. is to produce data on public sector net borrowing.
- Canada is to produce official data on retail sales, the government measure of consumer spending, which accounts for the majority of overall economic activity, as well as data on consumer inflation.
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newdigital, 2014.03.16 16:53
EUR/USD Fundamentals - weekly outlook: March 17 – 21The euro ended the week close to two-and-a-half year highs against the dollar on Friday, one day after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the strong euro was dragging down inflation in the euro area.
Monday, March 17
- The euro zone is to release data on consumer price inflation, which accounts for the majority of overall inflation.
- The U.S. is to publish data on manufacturing activity in the Empire State, as well as reports on industrial production and long term securities transactions.
- The ZEW Institute is to release its closely watched report on German economic sentiment, a leading indicator of economic health.
- The U.S. is to produce data on consumer inflation, in addition to reports on building permits and housing starts.
- The Federal Reserve is to announce its federal funds rate and publish economic forecasts for inflation and growth. The Fed statement is to be followed by a press conference with Chair Janet Yellen.
- Germany is to release data on producer price inflation.
- Political leaders and finance ministers from the European Union are to hold the first day of an economic summit in Brussels.
- The U.S. is to publish the weekly report on initial jobless claims, as well as data on existing home sales and manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia region.
- The euro zone is to release data on the current account.
- Political leaders and finance ministers from the EU are to hold the second day of an economic summit in Brussels.
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newdigital, 2014.03.17 17:14
EURUSD Technical Analysis March 17 2014 (based on forextv article)
EUR/USD maximum top for this week 1.3983, but the all important 1.3963
must also break higher. I see 1.3963 as a vital peak. Maximum low:
1.3803 but the all important 1.3836 and 1.3811 must also break lower.
Price appears overbought, shorts are recommended.
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newdigital, 2014.03.18 11:28
2013-03-18 10:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment]
- past data is 55.7
- forecast data is 53.0
- actual data is 46.6 according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
==========
German ZEW Economic Confidence Weakens Sharply
Economic expectations for Germany worsened in March burdened by Crimea crisis, survey data from the Centre for European Economic Research/ZEW revealed on Tuesday.
The economic confidence index dropped more-than-expected to 46.6 in March from 55.7 in February. The score was forecast to fall to 52.
Meanwhile, experts' assessment of the current economic situation improved to 51.3 points from 50 a month ago. Nonetheless, it stayed below the expected level of 52.
Economic expectations for the Eurozone declined by 7 points to 61.5 threshold. By contrast, the indicator for the current economic situation gained 3.5 points to minus 36.7 points in March.
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EURUSD M5 : 21 pips price movement by EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment news event
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newdigital, 2014.03.18 09:51
Trading the News: U.S. Consumer Price Index (based on dailyfx article)
- U.S. Consumer Price Index to Slow for First Time in Four-Months
- Core Inflation to Hold Steady at Annualized 1.6%
A slowdown in the headline reading for U.S. inflation may prompt further
declines in the dollar as it dampens the interest rate outlook for the
world’s largest economy
Why Is This Event Important:
Even though the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is widely expected
to discuss another $10B taper in March, the central bank remains poised
to introduce a ‘qualitative approach’ for monetary policy, and a dovish
twist to the forward-guidance may heighten the bearish sentiment
surrounding the reserve currency as Fed Chair Janet Yellen remains
reluctant to halt the zero-interest rate policy (ZIRP).
However, U.S. firms may raise consumer prices amid the pickup in wage
growth along with the resilience in private sector spending, and a
stronger-than-expected inflation print may generate a near-term bounce
in the greenback as it puts increased pressure on the Fed to normalize
monetary policy sooner rather than later.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bearish USD Trade: Consumer Prices Slow to 1.2% or Lower
- Need to see green, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short dollar trade
- If market reaction favors a long EURUSD position, sell pair with two separate position
- Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit; set reasonable objective
- Need red, five-minute candle to favor a long dollar trade
- Implement same setup as the bearish USD trade, just in reverse
- Failure to Close Above 1.3960-70 to Confirm Higher High is in Place
- Break of Bullish RSI Momentum to Highlight Near-Term Correction
- Interim Resistance: 1.3960-70 (61.8% expansion)
- Interim Support: 1.3600 Pivot to 1.3620 (23.6 retracement)
EURUSD M5 : 22 pips price movement by USD - CPI news event :
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EURUSD M5 : 30 pips price movement by USD - CPI news event
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newdigital, 2014.03.19 06:10
EURUSD Technical Analysis (based on dailyfx article)
- The EURUSD has broken out of the 5 month triangle. 1.3720 is the new pivot. As long as price is above 1.3720, focus is on the triangle target of 1.4368. The October 2011 high at 1.4247 is a possible reaction level.
- Former resistance is now estimated support at 1.3813.
- LEVELS: 1.3781 1.38481.3891 | 1.3960 1.4000 1.4087
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newdigital, 2014.03.19 16:58
EURUSD Fundamentals 19.03.2014 (based on dailyfx article)
Trading the News: Federal Open Market Committee Meeting
- Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to Deliver Another $10B Taper.
- Fed Chair Janet Yellen to Hold Press Conference at 18:30 GMT.
Indeed, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is
widely anticipated to reduce its asset-purchase by another $10B in
March, but the market reaction may not be as clear cut as the previous
rate decisions as market participants expect a material shift in the
policy outlook.
Why Is This Event Important:
Indeed, a growing number of Fed officials have
highlight a new ‘qualitative’ approach for monetary as the jobless rate
approaches the 6.5% threshold for unemployment, while a dovish twist to
the central bank’s forward guidance may heighten the bearish sentiment
surrounding the greenback as it drags on interest rate expectations.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: FOMC Cuts Another $10B & Sees Greater Scope to Normalize
- Need red, five-minute candle following the release to consider a short EUR/USD trade
- If market reaction favors a long dollar trade, short EUR/USD with two separate position
- Place stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to entry on remaining position once initial target is hit, set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: Fed Implements Dovish Twist to Forward Guidance
- Need green, five-minute candle to favor a long EUR/USD trade
- Implement same setup as the bullish dollar trade, just in opposite direction
XAUUSD M5 : 1953 pips price movement by USD - Federal Funds Rate news event :
AUDUSD by USD - Federal Funds Rate news event :
EURUSD by USD - Federal Funds Rate news event :
Federal Open Market Committee Meeting :
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The price is ranging between 1.3707 support and 1.3966 resistance with primary bullish market condition for D1 timeframe. As to W1 timeframe so the price is trying to break 1.3914 resistance level for primary bullish to be continuing.
If D1 price will break 1.3966 resistance on close bar together with new W1 bar to be opened above 1.3914 so we may see good bullish trend to be continuing (good for buy trade).
If not so we will see the ranging market condition within primary bullish on D1.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on EURUSD price movement for this coming week)
2013-03-17 10:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - CPI]
2013-03-18 10:00 GMT (or 11:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment]
2013-03-18 12:30 GMT (or 13:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Building Permits]
2013-03-19 18:00 GMT (or 19:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]
2013-03-20 07:00 GMT (or 08:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - German PPI]
2013-03-20 14:00 GMT (or 15:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey]
2013-03-21 09:00 GMT (or 10:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Current Account]
2013-03-21 15:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [EUR - Consumer Confidence]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on EURUSD price movement
SUMMARY : bullish
TREND : ranging
Intraday Chart
