Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader - page 3
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INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: USD/JPY
USD/JPY : 90.78
Last Update At 01 Jun 2010 07:22 GMT
Dlr's breach of 90.81 suggests recent erratic
rise fm 88.95 has indeed fromed a temp. top at 91.
63 y'day n consolidation with downside bias wud be
seen for weakness to 90.60, below wud encourage for
further fall to 90.28 but 89.81 sup wud hold.
Sell on recovery with stop as indicated nonly
abv 91.28/35 res wud abort current bearishness.
Range Forecast
90.60 / 91.00
Resistance/Support
R: 91.35 / 91.63 / 91.85
S: 90.60 / 90.28 / 89.81
Market Review - 01/06/2010 21:41GMT
Euro ends mixed after rebounding from a fresh 4-year low on solid US data
Despite trading narrowly in NZ/AUS following U.S. holiday on Monday, euro came under renewed selling pressure on Tuesday, the single currency nose-dived to a fresh 4-year low of 1.2110 in European mid-day on fears that recent lingering debt crisis would spread to European banks together with the early selloff in European equities (FTSE, DAX and CAC all once dropped by more than 2%). However, euro staged a strong recovery on active short-covering after the release of a batch of solid U.S. data and rallied to as high as 1.2355 in NY morning. Later, the single currency pared intra-day gain and ended the day at 1.2229.
U.S. construction spending rose by 2.7% in April, much higher than economists' forecast of no change whilst U.S. ISM manufacturing in May was 59.7, also better than the expectation of 59.0.
Earlier, ECB, in its Financial Stability Report, warned that the European banks might face up to 195 billion euros in a potential loan loss over the next 18 months, fueling worries that the European debt crisis might spread from the public to private sector. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble hinted that taxes may have to rise to consolidate Germany's finance and may not resonate well with the German populace. In addition, French Economy Minister (FINMIN) Christine Lagarde said on Tuesday 'French exporters appear satisfied with the weaker level of euro as they complained the single currency was too strong when it was at 1.4500 level versus the greenback.'
On economic front, German manufacturing PMI came in at 58.4 whilst unemployment rate eased to 7.7%. Eurozone manufacturing PMI was 55.8 and unemployment rate kept unchanged at 10.1%.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback weakened to 90.54 in European mid-day but the pair swiftly rebounded from there and rose sharply to 91.46 in NY mid-day on better-than-expected U.S. data. US stocks went through a volatile day as DJI once scored a modest gain but ended the day down by 1.11% (112 points) at 10024.02.
Cable briefly dropped to 1.4439 in tandem with euro in European morning, however, active cross buying lifted price and the British pound rallied above 1.4600 to as high as 1.4723 on speculation that Prudential would soon announce that it would abandon its takeover bid for AIG's Asian unit. Cross-buying in pound helped cable as euro tumbled below key daily support at 0.8400 and dropped to 0.8323 versus sterling, its weakest since December 2008. Cable later retreated from said high and ended the day at 1.4648. On economic front, U.K. CIPS manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 58.0 in May, slightly above the 57.8 consensus forecast.
Bank of Canada announced on Tuesday to raise it's overnight interest rate from 0.25% to 0.50% while the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rate unchanged at 4.5% as widely expected. BoC suggested modest tightening would be likely in coming months but the RBA stated status quo would be appropriate for the near term. Aud/usd tumbled from 0.8477 to 0.8281 while usd/cad fell from 1.0564 to 1.0421.
Economic data to be released on Wednesday include: Australia GDP, U.K PMI construction, Swiss retail sales, E.U. PPI and U.S. pending home sales.
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD: 1.4727
Last Update At 02 Jun 2010 07:42 GMT
Lack of follow through buying abv 1.4751 n pre-
sent retreat fm 1.4771 suggests choppy sideways
trading wud continue n pullback to 1.4699 can't be
ruled out, however, break is needed to confirm an
intra-day top is made n yield retrace. to 1.4665.
Abv 1.4771 wud extend recent upmove to 1.4800.
Stand aside in the meantime.
Range Forecast
1.4699 / 1.4745
Resistance/Support
R: 1.4771/1.4800/1.4850
S: 1.4699/1.4665/1.4630
Thanks for this outlook
Market Review - 02/06/2010 20:48 GMT
The Japanese yen tumbles on uncertainty after Prime Minister resigns
The Japanese yen weakened broadly as the resignation of Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama brought bearish bias on the currency while his likely successor, Finance Minister Naoto Kan, said in the past he preferred a weaker yen and had called for the Bank of Japan to do more to fight deflation.
The unpopular PM together with the ruling party DPJ's secretary general Ozawa resigned on Wednesday to boost the ruling party's faltering fortunes in the coming upper house election on July 11. Finance Minister Naoto Kan, who surprised markets earlier by saying that he wanted the yen to weaken more and most businesses favored a dollar/yen rate around 95, emerged as a possible replacement.
Firmness in US stocks together with political turmoil in Japan reduced the demand for yen as safe-haven currency. Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback briefly dipped to 90.89 in Australia, the pair rebounded from there and traded with a firm undertone throughout the day.
U.S. stocks rose sharply on favorable April U.S. home sales data as US pending home sales index rose by 6.0% m/m and 24.6% y/y (versus forecast of +5.0% m/m and 20.2% y/y, respectively) to 110.9. The usd/jpy pair extended intra-day rise and climbed to as high as 92.36 after the release of the data and DJI surged by 225.52 points and ended the day up at 10249.54.
The single currency moved relatively narrowly on Wednesday. Euro fell to 1.2185 in Asia due to initial weakness in global stocks as Nikkei-225 closed down by 1.12% at 9603.24 whilst FTSE, DAX and CAC were seen down by more than 1% at the openings. However, the single currency ratcheted higher to 1.2273 in European mid-day as European equities pared most of early losses before falling briefly to 1.2175 on profit-taking. The single currency rebounded to 1.2264 in NY afternoon as firmness in US stocks boosted risk appetite.
On economic front, eurozone April PPI rose by 0.9% m/m and 2.8% y/y, higher than the economist's forecast of 0.7% m/m and 2.5% y/y and the 0.6% m/m and 0.9% y/y increase in March. In other news, ECB Governing Council member Christian Noyer (Bank of France Governor) said ' Eur/usd rate is at about the 10-year average and the current euro rate by no means unusually low.'
The British pound maintained a firm undertone initially on active cross buying in sterling (eur/gbp tumbled to 18-month low of 0.8280) in part due to the withdrawal of UK's Prudential to purchase AIG's Asian unit AIA. Cable hit an intra-day high of 1.4771 in European morning but the pound retreated sharply from there and fell to 1.4553 on active cross unwinding in sterling as eur/gbp rebounded strongly from said 0.8280 low to 0.8380. The pound then rebounded strongly on active cross-buying in sterling especially vs euro as eur/gbp retreated from 0.8380. On economic front, U.K. construction PMI was 58.5 in May versus economists' forecast of 58.0 n the reading of 58.2 in April.
Investors returned to buy assets linked to growth as strength in U.S. stocks boosted risk appetite. U.S. crude futures for July delivery settled to $0.28 higher at $72.86 per barrel. Aud/usd also rose to 0.8425 from 0.8276 while nzd/usd jumped to 0.6824 from 0.6719 and usd/cad dropped from 1.0573 to 1.0371.
Economic data to be released on Thursday include: Japan business capex, Australia trade balance, U.K. house price, service PMI, Germany service PMI, E.U. Service PMI, retail sales, U.S. ADP employment, jobless claims, labor cost, productivity, durable goods, factory orders and ISM non-manufacturing.
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM :
AUD/USD: 0.8490
Last Update At 03 Jun 2010 06:30 GMT
As aud has risen after finding buying at 0.8439,
suggesting upside bias remains for gain to 0.8516,
but anticipated o/bot condition shud prevent furth-
er rise abv 0.8535 n risk has increased for a much-
needed minor pullback later.
Stand aside n look to buy on steeper fall. Below
0.8440/50 wud prolong choppy trading, 0.8404.
Range Forecast
0.8475 / 0.8518
Resistance/Support
R: 0.8516/0.8535/0.8531
S: 0.8439/0.8404/0.8377
Market Review - 03/06/2010 21:45 GMT
Dollar firms ahead of key U.S. payroll data
The U.S. dollar rose across the board on Thursday as investors made bullish bets for a strong reading of the key U.S. payrolls data due out on Friday.
For the first time in months, investors were putting focus on U.S. data rather than the European debt crisis. Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback traded with a firm undertone throughout the day. Despite brief dip to 92.04 in Asian morning, the pair then edged up and eventually climbed to 92.81 in European afternoon before retreating briefly to 92.23.
The single currency maintained a firm undertone initially and rose to 1.2327 in European morning due to firmness in European stocks. Britain's FTSE 100, Germany's DAX and France's CAC-40 all closed up by more than 1% on Thursday. However, euro swiftly retreated from there and remained under immense selling pressure. Price penetrated 1.2175 and tumbled to 1.2152 in NY afternoon on broad-based strength in dollar together with speculation the European Central Bank would provide more liquidity to the financial system. Active cross-selling in euro also pressured price as eur/chf fell below 1.4110 and tumbled to as low as 1.4056.
The British pound edged up initially and reached an intra-day high of 1.4744 in European morning due to strength in European stocks. However, cable retreated from said high and remained under pressure in NY afternoon on broad-based strength in dollar. Cable eventually fell to 1.4586 in NY afternoon before stabilizing.
In other news, Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig said Fed could raise to 1% by the end of summer as the economy would be strong enough to support such hike. Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart also said the U.S. economy would be almost strong enough to allow the Federal Reserve to begin raising interest rates.
On economic front, eurozone retail sales data was weaker-than-expected and came in at -1.2% m/m and -1.5% y/y in April versus the economists' forecast of 0.1% m/m and -0.2% y/y with upwardly revised 0.5% m/m and 1.3% y/y rise in March. Eurozone services PMI rose to 56.2 in May, higher than the economists' forecast of 56.0, showing eurozone economy was still expanding despite recent growing alarm about the finances of eurozone states. U.K. Nationwide house prices rose by 0.5% in May, half of the rate of the previous 1.0% rise in April while the annual rate of increase was 9.8% in May. U.S. ISM non-manufacturing came in at 55.4 in May and was slightly lower than the forecast of 55.5 while U.K. services PMI in May came in at 55.4 versus the forecast of 55.5.
In other news, the group of 20 central banks would convene on Friday for the first time since the outbreak of European debt crisis.
Economic data to be released on Friday include: E.U. GDP, Canada unemployment rate, Ivey PMI, U.S. avg. hourly earnings, non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate.
INTRA-DAY USD/JPY:
Last Update At 04 Jun 2010 02:35 GMT
Range Forecast
92.60 / 92.87
Resistance/Support
R: 92.97 / 93.22 / 93.65
S: 92.52 / 92.23 / 92.04
-------------------------------------------------
INTRA-DAY EUR/USD:
Last Update At 04 Jun 2010 02:40 GMT
Range Forecast
1.2160 / 1.2195
Resistance/Support
R: 1.2192/1.2233/1.2271
S: 1.2152/1.2143/1.2110
-------------------------------------------------
INTRA-DAY USD/CHF:
Last Update At 04 Jun 2010 02:43 GMT
Range Forecast
1.1525 / 1.1560
Resistance/Support
R: 1.1574/1.1603/1.1655
S: 1.1519/1.1498/1.1470
-------------------------------------------------
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD:
Last Update At 04 Jun 2010 02:49 GMT
Range Forecast
1.4610 / 1.4640
Resistance/Support
R: 1.4645/1.4676/1.4723
S: 1.4604/1.4586/1.4553
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD: 1.4627
Last Update At 04 Jun 2010 07:12 GMT
Despite cable's brief bounce to 1.4651, current
retreat suggests recovery fm y'day's low of 1.4586
has possibly ended n consolidation with downside
bias wud be seen for weakness to 1.4604/09, break
confirms fall has resumed, 1.4586 n 1.4553.
Sell on recovery with stop as indicated, break
wud risk stronger bounce to 1.4688...
Range Forecast
1.4610 / 1.4651
Resistance/Support
R: 1.4651/1.4676/1.4723
S: 1.4604/1.4586/1.4553
Market Review - 04/06/2010 21:36 GMT
Euro tanks below $1.2000 level on European debt fears and selloff in US stocks
Euro tumbled below $1.2000 for the first time since 2006 amid fears that the European debt problems are spreading and disappointing US jobs data helped the Japanese yen rise sharply across the board on renewed risk aversion after US stocks plunged.
Although the single currency moved sideways in Asia and briefly rose to 1.2216, euro swiftly retreated from there and nose-dived below Tuesday's 4-year low of 1.2110 after a newspaper report that Societe Generale SA had incurred huge loss in its derivative trading.
Intra-day decline accelerated when Peter Szijjarto, spokesman for Hungary's newly elected Prime Minister said Hungary is in grave situation because the previous govt. lied about the economy. He also added Hungary had only a slim chance of avoiding a Greek-style debt crisis. His comment triggered risk aversion activity on active sales of euro for the swiss franc due to financial crisis in Europe. Although traders had expected SNB to bid the eur/chf pair at 1.4000, such support did not occur and the pair tumbled to a lifetime low of 1.3865 after triggering the sizeable stops below 1.4000.
Euro was also pressured after French Prime Minister Francois Fillon said he was not concerned by the decline of the euro against the dollar and indicated that the previous higher exchange rate had damaged French exporters.
In NY session, the key report which showed the growth of U.S. payrolls had fallen well short of market's forecast suggested the recovery of U.S. economy remained fragile and this sparked off further risk aversion.
US payrolls in May came out at 431k, however, most of these gains were due to 411k in temporary government's hirings for the 2010 Census, the net gain for the private sector was an increase of 41k jobs only after previous month's rise of 218k. U.S. stocks plunged (DJI later closed down by over 3%) and T-bonds jumped immediately after the release of the disappointing number (unemployment fell moderately to 9.7% from previous 9.9%, however).
The usd/jpy pair tanked shortly after the release of the number as traders bought the Japanese yen. Yen rallied across the board as the selloff in euro and weaker-than-expected U.S. payrolls data spooked the market, leading investors to dump riskier assets such as stocks and commodity currencies for safe-haven currencies like yen and dollar.
The commodity currencies and stocks tumbled on active risk aversion, DJI fell below 10000 level and ended the day down by 323 points or 3.15% at 9932. FTSE 100 fell by 1.63%, CAC40 slumped by 2.86% and DAX dropped by 1.91%. Aud/jpy slumped from 78.68 to 75.11, gbp/jpy weakened from 136.26 to 132.19 and eur/jpy also dropped from 113.37 to 109.40 while the usd/jpy pair tumbled from 92.89 to 91.42. Other than gold, which edged higher as a safe-haven asset, commodities fell, July crude fell by $3.1 or 4.15% to settle at $71.51 a barrel.
In other news, the 2-day G20 meeting held in Busan of South Korea started on Friday (Fed chief Bernanke would be represented by FOMC Board of Governors Kevin Warsh) in the midst of global financial crises caused by debt contagion in the euro zone.
In Japan, former Finance Minister Naota Kan became Japan's Prime Minister after being picked by ruling partly DPJ. The Yomiuri newspaper said on its website today that Japanese Deputy Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda, who favours fiscal discipline and has supported the idea of capping new bond issuance for next year, may succeed Naoto Kan as Finance Minister after Kan was appointed as the Prime Minister.
Economic data to be released in this week include: EU Sentix Investor Confi., Germany Factory orders on Monday. (Euro-Area Fin. Min. Meeting on Monday) U.K. BRC retail sales, Japan Current account, Trade balance, Leading indicators, Swiss Jobless rate, Germany Trade balance ,Current account, Industrial production, Swiss CPI and Canada Housing starts on Tuesday, U.K. N'wide Consumer Confi., Japan Machine orders, Australia W'pac consumer confi., U.K. Trade balance,U.S. Beige Book report and Wholesale inventories on Wednesday. Japan Domestic CGPI, GDP, Germany CPI, U.K. BOE rate decision, EU ECB rate decision, U.S. Jobless claims, Canada Trade balance, U.S. Fed budget on Thursday. U.K. PPI, U.S. Retail sales, Business inventories, Canada Capacity utilisation on Friday.