Daily Market Outlook by AceTrader
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD: 1.4988
Last Update At 10 May 2010 09:30 GMT
Cable's firmness suggests recent upmove fm last
week's 1.4475 low to retrace MT downtrend remains
in progress n further gain to 1.5008/10 wud be seen
, however, o/bot condition wud cap price at 1.5030/
40 today n yield retreat later.
Buy again on dips, stop as indicated, break wud
risk stronger pullback to 1.4907 (prev. sup).
Range Forecast
1.4955 / 1.5008
Resistance/Support
R: 1.5008/1.5050/1.5100
S: 1.4907/1.4833/1.4764
Market Review - 10/05/2010 21:44GMT
Euro pares its intra-day gain despite EU/IMF 700 billion euro rescue package
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The single currency initially rallied across the board as European Union finance ministers, central bankers and IMF hammered out a 700 billion euros emergency package to stabilize the currency and to prevent Greece's debt crisis from spreading to other eurozone countries. In addition, euro zone central banks also started buying government and corporate bonds while the US Federal Reserve restarted currency swap lines with ECB. These measures had boosted risk appetite of investors. While European equities rallied by more than 4% and Dow Jone index ended the day up by 3.9% but euro pared most of its gains against US dollar later on worries of the implementation of the rescue plan.
Euro opened higher in NZ on Monday and jumped to 1.2950 on active short-covering after weekend news of a EU/IMF rescue package for the euro zone countries. Although euro staged a brief pullback later, renewed buying lifted price to an intra-day high of 1.3095. However, the single currency retreated sharply from there and fell to as low as 1.2759 in NY afternoon. In other news, Moody's warned that downgrade on Portugal to AA3 and Greece to below investment grade would be possible.
The British pound also opened higher in tandem with euro in NZ as weekend news of coalition between the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats to become U.K. new government gave support to sterling. Cable then hit an intra-day high of 1.5054 in NY morning. However, it retreated sharply from there and pared its gains against US dollar on UK's PM Gordon Brown's comments that he would step aside later and the Liberal Democrats' potential talks with the Labour party. In other news, The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged at 0.5% as expected and made no change to its 200 billion pounds asset purchase target.
Economic data to be released on Tuesday include: U.K. BRC retail sales , Germany CPI final , U.K. Industrial production and U.S. Consumer confidence.
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM :
AUD/USD:0.8966
Last Update At 11 May 2010 06:12 GMT
Aud's retreat after meeting selling interest at
0.9031 n subsequent breach of minor sup at 0.8939
suggests the upmove fm 0.8711 has indeed formed a
top at 0.9078 n fall twd 0.8939 is seen b4 prospect
of a rebound due to nr term o/sold condition.
Abv 0.8991 wud prolong choppy trading but 0.9039
wud cap upside. Stand aside in the meantime.
Range Forecast
0.8939 / 0.8980
Resistance/Support
R: 0.8991/0.9039/0.9078
S: 0.8939/0.8920/0.8852
Market Review - 11/05/2010 21:40GMT
Cable rises as Conservative Cameron takes over as U.K.'s new PM
The British pound rose against dollar and euro after Conservative leader David Cameron took over as U.K.'s new prime minister. The pair also drew support from optimism over a potential Conservative and Liberal Democrats coalition.
The British pound traded with a soft bias on Tuesday initially in Asia and briefly dipped to 1.4720 in Europe. However, the pair later rebounded from there and rose sharply to an intra-day high of 1.5005 on optimism that Britain's Conservative party might be nearing an agreement to form a new coalition government with the Liberal Democrats. Gordon Brown later officially resigned as Prime Minister and leader of the Labour party with immediate effect. Conservative leader David Cameron subsequently became Britain's new Prime Minister. Cable pared gains on profit taking before stabilising.
The single currency continued to decline as investors were worried if the almost $1 trillion (750 billion euros) bailout package would help the region's most-indebted nations to contain deficits. Despite brief recovery to 1.2803, price then extended decline from Monday's high of 1.3095 and fell to as low as 1.2656 in NY afternoon. In other news, Greece was likely to submit a request for the first installment of a 110 billion euros ($147.6 billion) aid package from the EU and IMF. Finance Minister of Greece also said the government would ask for a total of 20 billion euros, in part to refinance an 8.5 billion euro 10-year bond that would mature on May 19. Besides, Fed's Bernanke described EU's almost $ 1 trillion package as ' not a panacea ' and that wasn't a cure during a close-door briefing with the banking committee.
Gold rose above its previous high of $1226.60 an ounce set on Dec. 3, 2009, hitting an all-time high at 1233.90 an ounce in NY session as worries on European debt crisis drove investors to buy gold as a safe-haven asset.
Economic data to be released on Wednesday include: Japan Leading indicators , Germany GDP , Swiss Combined PPI , U.K. Claimant count , U.K. ILO Unemployment rate , EU GDP , Industrial production , Canada Trade balance , Exports, Imports , New housing price , U.S. trade balance and Fed budget.
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: USD/JPY
USD/JPY : 92.70
Last Update At 12 May 2010 07:01 GMT
Dlr has edged lower fm Asian high of 92.94,
suggesting consolidation with downside bias remains
for a re-test of 92.44 (AUS), break wud extend this
week's erratic fall fm 93.54 to 92.21, below wud
bring further weakness to 92.01.
Lower short entry for 92.45 1st n only abv 93.15
wud risk stronger gain twd 93.27/30 b4 down.
Range Forecast
92.50 / 92.85
Resistance/Support
R: 92.94/93.15/93.54
S: 92.44/92.21/92.01
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: USD/JPY
USD/JPY : 92.98
Last Update At 13 May 2010 09:30 GMT
Present anticipated retreat suggests an intra-
day top has possibly been made at 93.65 n consolida
tion with downside bias wud be seen for weakness to
92.81, however, reckon 92.44/45 sup wud remain
intact n yield rebound later.
Sell again on recovery with stop as indicated,
break wud abort n bring re-test of said res...
Range Forecast
92.80 / 93.10
Resistance/Support
R: 93.65/93.99/94.50
S: 92.75/92.44/92.21
Market Review - 13/05/2010 21:19GMT
Euro and pound fall on continued market woes
The euro fell for a third day versus the dollar on concerns the harsh fiscal tightening in Europe would lead to slower growth of euro-zone's economy. Weakness in US stocks also hurt market sentiment and pressured euro as DJI ended the day down 1.05%. Despite intra-day brief recovery to 1.2685 in European morning in thin trading conditions as many European countries were off for Ascension Day holiday, euro later fell sharply to 1.2540 in NY morning. Although euro then managed a minor recovery, renewed selling at 1.2597 pushed the single currency close to its last week's 14-month low of 1.2510 before stabilising. In other news, report showed Greece would submit a deficit-cutting progress report to EU this coming Saturday. Earlier, Portugal lowered its budget-deficit goal for 2011 to 4.6 percent and approved tax increases and spending cuts.
Although the British pound edged higher to 1.4917 at London opening on short-covering, cable retreated sharply from there and intra-day decline picked up downward momentum after the release of wider-than-expected U.K. trade deficit, which came in at -7.52 billion pounds, the highest trade gap since January, versus the economists' forecast of -6.41 billion and revised -6.30 billion in February. Cross-selling in the pound especially versus euro also weighed on cable as eur/gbp rose sharply from 0.8498 to 0.8594. Sterling eventually tanked to as low as 1.4593 in NY afternoon.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback moved narrowly in Asia and then rose sharply to 93.65 in European morning. However, the pair swiftly retreated from there and tumbled to 92.59 in NY mid-day due to active unwinding of yen carry trades on risk aversion as U.S. stocks and commodities fell in U.S. session.
In other news, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Narayana Kocherlakota said the Fed would raise interest rates if economic conditions change appropriately.
On economic front, U.S. jobless claims fell to 444,000 versus economists' forecast of 440,000 in the latest week (May 1 to May 8) from upwardly revised 448,000 in the prior week. U.S. April export price came in at 1.2% m/m versus 0.4% forecast and April import price came in 0.9% versus 0.8% forecast.
Economic data to be released on Friday include: New Zealand retail sales, U.S. retail sales, capacity utilization, industrial production, University of Michigan survey and business inventories.
INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM: EUR/USD EUR/USD: 1.2526
Late Update At 14 May 2010 05:53 GMT
As euro has fallen after meeting renewed sell-
ing at 1.2561, suggesting recovery fm 1.2510 has
possibly ended there n recent decline shud resume
after minor consolidation, below 1.2510/17 wud con-
firm n yield further weakness to 1.2457/60.
Wud be prudent to exit long n stand aside. Abv
1.2561 wud bring stronger retrace. to 1.2597.
Range Forecast
1.2520 / 1.2561
Resistance/Support
R: 1.2597/1.2611/1.2685
S: 1.2510/1.2495/1.2457
Market Review - 15/05/2010 01:22GMT
Euro tanks on growth fears and breakup concern
The single currency penetrated last week's 14-month low of 1.2510 in Europe yesterday and tumbled below 1.2400 for the first time since November 2008 on lingering worries that austerity plans required by the EU/IMF 750 billion euro bailout package would stifle an 'already-weak' recovery in the 16-nation eurozone. Previous day's comments by Former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker that he was concerned the euro area may break up while ECB's Weber said dangers were still in the financial system and such risk should not be underestimated. German Chancellor Angela Merkel's comments that Europe is in a 'very, very serious situation' continued to weigh on the euro throughout European and U.S. sessions.
Euro bashing pressured the single currency on Friday as the pair was sold on every intra-day rebound. Despite brief bounce to 1.2576 near European opening on short-covering, euro tumbled again and fell below 1.2510 to 1.2432 in European mid-day. Although euro managed a modest recovery, renewed selling at 1.2534 pushed the single currency lower again and price nose-dived to a fresh 18-month low of 1.2354 in NY afternoon. Cross-selling in euro also weighed on price as eur/jpy plunged from 117.02 to 113.50 while eur/gbp fell sharply from 0.8620 to 0.8496. In other news, report showed French President Nicolas Sarkozy once threatened to pull out of the euro during the negotiation which led to the aforementioned bailout. In addition, Greece would submit a deficit-cutting progress report to EU this coming Saturday.
Although the British pound fell sharply from 1.4640 to as low as 1.4496 in tandem with euro on Friday, cross buying in sterling versus the single currency somehow limited cable's intra-day downside, the pound was more resilient than euro to selling pressure and gyrated inside aforesaid range in NY session as the market focus on Friday was euro instead of cable.
Versus the Japanese yen, yen rallied across the board as Greek debt crisis sparked major broad-based risk aversion again, prompting investors to dump riskier assets like commodity currencies, stocks, oil and other commodities for yen and dollar as safe haven currencies, gold fell $30 from fresh record high of $1248.80 to $1218.10. Aud/jpy tumbled from 83.41 to 81.42 while gbp/jpy fell from 136.05 to 133.24 and usd/jpy also slumped from 93.10 to 91.80.
European and U.S. bourses all suffered heavy losses on Friday, FTSE closed down 3.15%, DAX down 3.12%, CAC 40 down 4.59% whilst DJI closed down 1.51% and S&P 500 down 1.88%.
Economic data to be released next week include : U.K. Rightmove house prices, Japan Domestic CGPI, Japan Domestic CGPI, U.K. CBI industrial trend, U.S. Empire state mfg. and Net LT TIC flows and NAHB housing mrkt index on Monday, Japan Tertiary industry index, Consumer confidence, Machine tools orders, U.K. CPI, Germany ZEW index, EU Trade balance ,HICP, U.S. Building permits and PPI on Tuesday, Japan Capacity utilisation, Industrial production, Canada Wholesale sales, U.S. CPI and FOMC minutes on Wednesday, Japan GDP , Germany PPI, U.K. Retail sales, Canada Leading indicators and U.S. Leading indicators on Thursday, Japan Leading indicators, Germany GDP, PMI, EU PMI, Germany Ifo index, EU Current account, Canada CPI and Retail sales on Friday.
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD: 1.4413
Last Update At 17 May 2010 06:40 GMT
Cable's strg rebound after early selloff to
1.4249 in Asia suggests consolidation wud be seen n
stronger correction to 1.4430/35 cannot be ruled
out, however, reckon price wud falter well below
1.4496 (prev. sup, now res) n yield selloff.
Below 1.4350/55 wud signal recovery has possibly
ended n yield weakness to 1.4300/05. Stand aside.
Range Forecast
1.4370 / 1.4419
Resistance/Support
R: 1.4419/1.4475/1.4496
S: 1.4303/1.4249/1.4212
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INTRADAY TRADING SIGNAL BY ACETRADER.COM :
AUD/USD:0.9056
Last Update At 10 May 2010 08:40 GMT
Aud's intra-day rise after finding buying at 0.
8920 n current firmness suggests the upmove fm 0.87
11 remains in force n gain to 0.9075 is now seen,
however, anticipated o/bot condition shud cap price
below 0.9110 in Europe.
Buy on dips with stop as indicated, below wud
signal a top is made n risk fall to 0.8970/75.
Range Forecast
0.9040 / 0.9090
Resistance/Support
R: 0.9075/0.9110/0.9135
S: 0.9005/0.8939/0.8918
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