A-B-C-D Trade - page 50
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According to news reports, the BOJ just committed verbal intervention.
The Japanese Economic Minister simply stated that they are prepared to intervene in the Forex market if necessary (to stem Yen strength).
Aside from a slew of GBP data through 08:30, we have a 24-hour general strike in Spain. Additionally, focus on more Basel III banking regulations.
Japan MOE probably wanted a pre-empted verbal intervention ahead of these events that might drag Yen pairs stronger.
EUR/GBP just extended to the E 100 of 85.85.
Other 3 pairs may have bounce trade (up) potential.
EUR/JPY bounced from 113.52 to 113.76.
The low was 113.49.
Retrace fibs:
High = 114.00
Low = 113.49
50% = 113.76 which is same as our 1-Hour chart fib using Asian High to Low
We can literally see the jitters in EUR/JPY. It revisited 113.52 and bounced back up about 33 pips in about 5 seconds.
This is what Japan's verbal intervention can do, since the Euro is under pressure today.
Brief recap at about the halfway mark in the U.S. session. Last Euro session saw the 3 pairs the we are monitoring bounce off session lows.
EUR/JPY and EUR/USD chopped its way back up to area of Asian highs, while USD/JPY retained its bearish tone in backdrop of intervention fears.
EUR/USD also had bounce off top near Asian High during Euro session that was practically a full 100% retrace. Trading to the 61.% fib = 41 pips.
EUR/USD had a wide ABC:
A = 18:50 low 1.3555
B = 04:15 high 1.3595
C = 06:45 low 1.3573
FE 161.8 = 1.3640 (hit and is current resistance area)
Currently, no impact data and EUR/USD testing Euro High of 1.3643.
****
The U.S. House of Representatives is voting today on sanctions on imported China goods due to their "manipulation" of the Yuan. It is the job of the U.S. Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, to decide whether to list a country as a currency manipulator. If he does, it goes to the House of Representatives for voting.
The Bill would then go on to the Senate for voting, and if passed, to the President for signature. Time-line would be after the U.S. November elections.
BBC News - US Congress to vote on China sanctions bill
Despite positive EURO data released at 07:55, Euro pairs hesitant to swing upwards. The P.I.G.S. nations once again was in the spotlight.
Spain was downgraded by Moody and just about same time as last data release, breaking news on large bailout amount of major Irish bank Anglo Irish Bank). EUR/JPY acted accordingly during Asian and experienced a 124-pip short. EUR/USD likewise for about 90 pips.
However, both pairs retraced late Asian to partially make up.
Other news include the U.S. House of Representatives approving the China sanction bill. It will now go to the Senate for vote. Many different opinions on this which we'll try to address/reference for dinner conversation.
Major data at 12:30 GMT, with big one = U.S. GDP. Also at 12:30 is CAD GDP.
Try to identify a good EUR/JPY support and resistance price during Sept 30th Asian session in which to trade off of. Hint, price was a recent session high and low on different days. Then plot ABC in down direction, with Point C pivot as close as possible to that break price.
09:00 EU CPI came in as forecasted. EUR/USD attempting confirm above resistance of 1.3637, which was Asian High. After 5min candle closes, plot ABC and watch out for U.S. High.
A 5-min candle did NOT close above resistance of 1.3637, just probed above but retracted. Adjust Point C if necessary on any reattempt.