A-B-C-D Trade - page 175
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EUR/USD 30-min chart
Low = June 29th 01:30 1.433498
High = June 29th 11:00 1.44469
161.8 extension = 1.45146
BAJA bearish divergence with 22:30 and 02:00 candles. If entering with 15-min EFT trigger, it eliminates too early of an entry as move continued uo to the 161.8 extension.
Trader could short at the 161.8 without using EFT to eliminate loss of pips front-end. Otherwise trading to the 38.2% retrace fib was not a good risk/reward ratio. 15-min EFT entry would have been 04:30 1.45059.
Retrace fib plot: Low = June 30th 00:00 1.44569 High = 03:30 1.45178.
38.2 = 1.44950 (hit 05:00 candle)
We omitted some comments. The last post's fib extension plot had a high that was the 360-degree level, based on aforementioned SQ9(price) plot.
The Greece event is not for the intra-day trader, as witnessed by the 12:30 100-pips whipsaw candle. Same for high-impact and certain medium-impact economic data releases.
The retrace off the 161.8 has just hit the 50% fib area for +25 gross pips. S/L risk very small if entered just below 161.8.
The pop up during the 15:00 candle is a result of news that Greece passed the 2nd budget bill. Stay on top of this type of news as it prevents chasing abbreviated pops.
German banks also reportedly backing Greece rollover scenarios. EU Finance Minsters meet over weekend in Brussels.
This Euro buying may very well continue, but currently the probe above the previous high of 1.45202 is still respecting the resistance. Also be aware of the current time in session. European session closes at 16:00.
The U.S. Dow Jones up today. This is also technically the last day of QE2 bond purchases.
Here's a bigger picture, with 1-hour APF plot which is providing current price action with resistance at its 200% expansion line to the upside. 127% extension also there.
edit add: Plot fibo fan June 7th high to June 27th low. The fan's 78.6% ray is at current price area.
BAJA divergence on 15:00 candle as 2nd peak.
The 15-min EFT trigger got in at 1.4523. Retrace plot has 23.6% at 1.45157, just hit for conservative profit. SELL position takes advantage of some profit taking from longs of the session/day..
Lower volume should keep trade short period of time.
Upper left is 4-hour with 12:00 candle hitting resistance at 127 extension (yellow) and 78.6 fibo fan (white).
Lower left is `5-min trigger chart with EFT entry at 16.30 open price entry.
Right is tight retrace fib plot on 30-min, using 13:30 low 1.44577. Pair hit this plot's 38.2 during 17:30 candle period.
Here is a sample for experienced traders that "trade the news (economic data)"
01:00 GMT China's PMI figure just came in below consensus. AUD/USD is sensitive to China data. Attached is a split screen. Left is 30-min and right is 15-min.
30-min has APF previously plotted, which has Median Line acting as support right now.
15-min zooms in on break of previous pivot 23:45 candle low 1.06847. Blue dotted fibs are from wide plot better seen on 4-hour. Initial profit target just above 38.2 fib of 1.06120.
Stop-loss 1.07300, which is just above 22:30 pivot high of 1.07243.
Reward = 68 pips
Risk = 45
R/R Ratio = 1.5 : 1
AUD/USD never made it past the aforementioned Median Line of APF. Pulled up by strong EUR/USD and just hitting the 78.6 fibo fan ray (1.07291) from plot using June 30th 05:00 high.
Also ahead is Mars 0-degree at about 1.07390.
EUR/USD bounced off lows at Moon 90-degree intersection with horizontal 88.6% retrace. Next resistance above 1.45370 is Mars 180-degree around 1.45510 level.
Here's a split screen of both pairs and bounces off Mars resistance.
AUD/USD 1.07393
The 06:30 candle reached 1.07363 and has now gotten to 1.07143 seeking more.
EUR/USD 1.45510
06:30 candle hit 1.45511, and bounced down to 1.45170 thus far
Update on last chart. 13:55 GMT had U.S. data - University of Michigan Confidence figure came in lower than expected.
We can see the last candle (14:00) on the charts spike up.
Prior to that both pairs moved down. EUR/USD stall at the Moon 90-degree, and continued to make a 127% extension. a wider 100% fib also there (blue).
AUD/USD made a 88.6% retrace. Wider 50% fib also there.