A-B-C-D Trade - page 286
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EUR/USD wide 50% fib = 1.3174, and intersects fan's 61.8. THis is next support.
With session colors and MML.
Price just bounced off 0/8th 1.3179
Tight fibs based on yesterdays' European Low 1.3233 and high 1.3321. THis generates 161.8 near pivot. Conversely, yesterday's Low/High results in 161.8 right at the 0/8th MML.
Correction:
"yesterday's Low/High results in 161.8 right at the 0/8th MML"
***
Should read ...results in 127.2 right at the 0/8th MML.
***
Attached is a continuance of the last EUR/USD 1-hour with PSQ9, fibs and fan. Price broke the 78.6% retrace fib support (1.3237), marked by white horizontal line, during the 12:00 hour.
We drew another white dotted line pointing to volume divergence on the 13:00 pivot low candle. Strong down move candle, but red volume candle, which indicates a decline in volume from the previous candle hour.
This down move met aforementioned support at the 50% horizontal (yellow) and fan 61.8 (blue), probing to the Mars 90.
Pair now sitting on that 50% horizontal fib of 1.3174, ahead of week's close. Potentially more last minute selling, however conservative intra-day traders are done.
Here's 1-hour EUR/USD, with Heiken Ashi Smooth candles. The attached version of this indicator comes with alert. We changed the default settings to:
MaMetod = 0
MaPeriod = 1
MaMetod2 = 3
MaPeriod2 = 2
You can elect to turn on POP_UP_Box_Alert
or
Sound_Alert
for trend change in HAS.
There were 5 BAJA divergence points since Jan 31st. Four of those were pretty good, with one being a little choppy.
As with most/all moving average momentum or cross-over systems, the lag can chop you up when it's not trending.
Pairing HAS with BAJA divergence can filter out bad signals, and provide nice opportunities.
Reward/Risk must make sense. Have initial TP target. That can be assessed with Fibonacci plots.
Here is 1-Hour EUR/USD with HAS candles and T3.
We drew white horizontal lines denoting support/resistance levels for breakout trade opportunities that went with the direction of the trend.
When you have the HAS on the chart, you need to delete the line graph. Do accomplish this, right click chart. Select and click "properties".
Choose "Colors" tab. In box for Line graph, select "none". When you get back to the main chart, click "line chart" in the MT4 toolbar.
Effectively, you are making the leaving the departing from the candles, to make the line graph invisible in order to just see the HAS candles.
The HAS uses different calculations and we cannot see the true candle wicks for high/low. To view the wicks, go to toolbar and click "bar chart".
We can toggle back and forth between line chart and bar chart, when we want to see wicks and when we just want to see the HAS alone.
The attached chart shows a 6-day period between Jan 11th through Jan 18th. Each entry is after a break of S&R and on the trend side of the T3 candles.
Here are the price levels:
Jan 11th 1.2727 SELL
Jan 12th 1.2727 BUY
Jan 13th 1.2805 SELL
Jan 17th 1.2687 BUY
Jan 18th 1.2808 BUY
The last chart was during an ideal stretch where S&R was pretty clear and the breakouts were clean, and things were trending.
The attached chart is more problematic, and covers Feb 5th through 10th. We numbered each of the 5 opportunities:
1) Feb 6th 1.3065 SELL (Loss)
2) Feb 7th 1.3167 BUY (Win)
3) Feb 8th 1.3292 BUY (Loss)
4) Feb 9th 1.3263 BUY (Loss)
5) Feb 10th SELL 1.3237 (Win)
The outcomes were based on trailing stop with the T3 candles. If trade # 2 was taken, it overlapped and nullified trade #3.
Trades # 1 and 4 losses were approximately -35 pips each. Winning trades # 2 and 5 were for approx. +70 pips each.
The net result for this period was about +70 pips. Risk for trades was about 35 pips each time, therefore TP targets had to be at least R/R 1:1, preferably more. The HAS kept trader in trade and reduced jumpiness. T3 was trailing S/L and trend indicator.
We spoke about the compounding nature of an account. Here is AUD/USD 1-hour with MurreyMath1.0 levels, for Feb 6th.
The previous 2 trading days of Feb 2nd and 3rd respected the yellow 7/8th MML as support. A BUY at this level on Feb 6th targets the next level up, the 8/8th MML.
The price levels were 1.06812 to 1.07422. We used a net profit of 55 pips, and a S/L risk of 15 pips. This equates to a Reward/Risk ratio of 3.7:1.
Let's say we cheery pick 8 of these opportunities per month, and use 3% risk per trade on a starting balance of $10,000.
A mere 50% win ratio would still bring a stunning 32% return per month.
Compounding this each month for one year.........results in $279,825.
To use a simple spreadsheet we've devised, go to googledocs and use our Forex Risk/Reward Trade Calculator quick scaling:
https://www.mql5.com/go?link=https://docs.google.com/previewtemplate?id=0ApbniYyOER5MdEJXXzJhQ05pZ0VuY1JPb2dtZW04X3c&mode=public
or google fxbaja.
Just fill in the data fields for the purple boxes.
Even if you win only 3 out of every 8, the total at the end of one year (due to compounding) will be $73,000. That's 7 X the original account balance.
This kind of price movement happens every week, across all pairs.
When you know what you're doing, especially the way the numbers break down, you will eliminate your fear/hesitation!
The Greek Parliament passed the newest demanded austerity measures over the weekend. Deja Vu all over again.
Attached is continuance of our 1-hour EUR/USD with PSQ9.
Price moved up at week's open, retraced 50%, and hurdled 1.3260 High and extended to Friday's European High of 1.3283.
The pivot (retrace's low) wass at the Mars 135-degree and Moon 90.
The current peak is at the next Mars level up, the Mars 180-degree, and intersected by the Moon 135. There was a 24-pip bounce off that Mars 180.
Chart 1 is today's final picture from us on the same 1-hour PSQ9 chart. The top was a cluster of resistance from previous highs.
That has been the general goal, to find S&R clusters. This enables a trader to use a tighter stop-loss, and dramatically improve the reward/risk ratio.
Chart 2 is 15-min AUD/USD with MML. This time-frame provides more levels.
Fib plot Low = 00:45 1.06684 High = 05:15 1.7484
The 138.2 extension fib is at the same location as the 5/8th MML.
From previous price action, we can see this pair respect the MML levels, therefore it is a significant resistance level. Together with the fib extension, this is a resistance cluster.
We labeled the 10:15 pivot low of 1.07574 as TP1 (take-profit option level 1). This is the same as the High from the fib plot. This amount of retrace happens a majority of the time.
A bounce off that High occurred, and went up to the 127.2 fib of 1.07655.
Next levels of TP were 4/8th MML, 23.6, and 38.2 fibs. All were hit.
The S/L options included the 161.8 extension fib of 1.07873. This is about at the middle between the 5/8th and 6/8th MML.
1/8th of 360-degrees = 45-degree (divide 360 by 8). We know that 22.5-degree is a minor ratio. This is the same with the MML levels. The middle between 1/8th levels, is the 22.5-degree.
This S/L had a risk of 15 pips + cushion = 20 pips.
TP targets and approximate R/R:
0% fib (High) = 20/20 and ratio 1:1
23.6% fib = 35/20 and ratio 1.7:1
38.2% fib = 44/20 and ratio of 2.2:1
***
BAJA divergence on both pairs on the 30-min time-frame.
A couple of events transpired. Moody's cut debt credit ratings on 6 European countries including 3 PIIGS nations in Italy, Spain and Portugal. U.K. and France on negative watch.
BOJ announced stimulus action and will purchase 10 trillion yen in JGB (bonds).
We saw EUR/USD drift down during Asian and form a BAJA bullish divergence on the 30-min chart.
Price now at session high of 1.3174, and bounced.