A-B-C-D Trade - page 279
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This pair actively made gains in last few days, and ripe for a little retracement.
Split-screen with 15-min session colors and retrace fibs on the left. 4-hour on right uses SQ9 and extension fibs.
Top was at the 138.2 and SQ9 90-degree. Entry at open of 04:00 period 101.48.
TP1 = just above pivot low from 01:00 of 101.27
TP2 = just above 7/8th MML of 101.17
S/L above high of 101.54
EUR/JPY did not advance to the downside much after last post/pic, closing the 04:45 candle at the 61.8% retrace fib 101.38. Trailing stop to protect at this level or break-even.
Price swung up ahead of data, breaching Asian High of 101.59, and marking a high of 10178, BEFORE 09:00 data. Pair whipsawed and went on a decline back into the Asian session range.
The next event was the German Bond auction at about 10:15. This saw a rise amid concerns about Greek debt, and translated into Euro selling. We can see the brief consolidation 10:00 - 11:15.
The large candle came at 11:30, knifing through the Asian Low of 101.27. Based on a fib plot using the Asian High/Low, the 12:30 pivot low of 100.96 just established, is a 200% extension.
S/L options include just above 101.39 pivot low from 04:45.
Reward/Risk = 27/15 and ratio of 1.8:1
Market was moving fast, therefore the SELL fill may include some slippage, depending on broker.
Larger 4-hour time-frame show 50% retracement.
Ahead is FOMC, which would be potential reaction to verbiage.
2 More entry points as viewed on the 5-min.
A double bottom with 2nd hit during the 13:05 candle.
The return to the Low of the fib plot 101.27 normally bounces, even for a very small gain. This one went 12 gross pips.
Correction: The fib plot described in last post as Asian High/Low should read:
From Asian High 101.86 to 01:00 pivot low 101.27.
The 17:30 FOMC statement did indeed contain market moving verbiage.
The FED will plan to keep interest rates low to at least late 2014.
USD sagged across the board.
The AUD/USD, which is also sensitive to risk-on/risk-off commodity fluctuations, spiked up and now nearing Jan 23rd high of 1.50722.
A good example for staying on the sidelines during potentially high-impact event. Trading through it with a small stop-loss, is like flipping a coin.
After making a 161.8 extension, profit taking now, ahead of Bernanke press conference. At 23.6% now.
Here's the pic on EUR/USD. Split-screen with 15-min session colors and retrace fib plot on the left. That plot used U.S. session low/high. Price just touched the 38.2 of 1.30429 and bounced.
Chart on right is 30-min PSQ9. Top was at Mars 45-degree, with price just bouncing off Mars 0-degree. Top also 127.2 extension fib (yellow), based on wider Jan 22nd/23rd plot. We can see resistance at this Mars 0-degree level.
Here is an old ABC we posted in December on the 4-hour AUD/USD. Swings were Dec 19th/Dec 21st/Dec 29th.
We noticed the spike exceeded the Jan 23rd high and was due to see the ABC plot's FE 161.8 level of 1.05948. The 7/8th MML of 1.6201 was just above that. Also had bearish BAJA divergence.
Anticipating some profit taking, and having both a bigger picture assessment and intra-day one, the SELL opportunity emerged.
Entry at 2% risk filled 1.05855. Added more when price revisited top area, filling 1.05941, but at less risk %.
S/L at 1.06250
TP target 1.05640, which was just above the 6/8th MML and near 23.6% retrace fib.
Due to time and approaching Bernanke speech, exited a little early in layers, filling at 1.05725 and 1.05703 after spread.
The 2 pairs that were highlighted today also had harmonic patterns.
1) AUD/USD 1-Hour Bearish Butterfly was almost the perfect Carney pattern. The B-D distance came in at 1.82 instead of 1.618.
This was the top reached post-FMOC. Decline not much since Point D, but ZUP generated trendline being respected.
2) EUR/USD 1-Hour Bullish Gartley. The X-B leg a little off, as well as X-D. However, the trigger at Point D is supposed to be a B-D distance of 1.272 or 1.618.
This pattern came in at 127.2, and we indeed saw an upswing that was further fueled by the FOMC.
Attached is 1-hour EUR/USD with PSQ9 set to Mars and Moon, each at 45-degree intervals.
The fib plot (yellow) uses Jan 25th high/low of 09:00 and 12:00 swings. This high/low is the same as the Mars 0-degree and Mars 270-degree.
Price made a 161.8 extension (1.31248) to the upside during the U.S. session, propelled by the FOMC. Because the event was so strong, there was virtually no bounce at the fib plot's high.
There was a bounce/pullback, as narrated by us yesterday, at the next Mars level 45-degree. Price fell back to the High/Mars 0-degree.
This pair proceeded to consolidate through today's Asian Session. The blue "x" marks the Asian High of 1.31326. We can see that 06:00 candle close at the 161.8. The 138.2 fib of 1.30964 acted as support for this tight range.
The breakout of the Asian High occurred during the 09:00 period, advancing to the 200% fib 1.31709 by 10:00. The Mars 90-degree is also there.
The breakout captured about 35 gross pips. S/L options included the 15-min 6/8th MML of 1.31226 + cushion.
Reward/risk = net about 30/15 and 2:1
Wave of U.S. data 13:30 - 15:00.
Note that when you change the time-frame, say from 15-min to 5-min, the MML levels are at the same place, but can have different ratio numbers. There may also be more levels, between the levels displayed on the larger time-frames.
Here is 1-hour AUD/USD with the same intervals of Mars and Moon. Along with the fib plot, we added MurreyMath1.0.
The fib plot is Jan 25th Low/High (gray). Generally, it is from the 3/8th MML to the 6/8th MML, a rise of 3 levels.
The breakout from the Jan 25th High occurred during the 05:00 period, and proceeded to make a 138.2 extension to 1.06854. This level is also the 7/8th MML.
Therefore, the rise went 3 levels of MML, retraced/consolidated, then extended 1 level. A rough estimate like this is summed up as a 1/3rd extension of the low/high.
This is generally the same as the fib's 38% measurement as the actual increase from the low/high.