A-B-C-D Trade - page 181
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Here is a zoom-in on the 30-min USOIL with MurreyMath1.0 (MML) indicator applied. Nice adherence to fan and MML levels, with the bottom pivot at the 0/8th.
Currently price is at the 50% fib retracement level per previous post and chart. The next resistance level is the 61.8 of 97.01, which is very near the MML 4/8th.
Be reminded of following high-impact events (GMT time):
16:00 European Bank Stress Test
18:00 U.S. FOMC Minutes
On the 30-min session colored chart, we illustrate the intra-day swings and extensions.
1) High = July 11th 22:30 1.40611 Low = July 12th 02:00 1.39310
161.8 = 1.38373 (per previous post) This also Asian Low breakout trade. We remarked very early in this thread that it is better to be able to read the swings and understand extension targets, versus fixed S/L and Take-Profit on breakout trading.
2) Low = July 12th 02:00 1.38363 High = July 12th 09:30 1.39614
138.2 = 1.40092 (hit 12:30 period)
3) High = July 11th 22:30 1.40611 Low = July 12th 02:00 1.38363
78.6 retrace = 1.40130 (hit 12:30 and 15:30)
Market now awaits European Stress Test data/comments, as well as FOMC minutes at 18:00.
The 1st chart is updated MML with ABC, per previous post and details/plot. The location of the MML has not changed but the fractional values have.
The Point A on the last posted chart was at the +2/8th. That same line is now the 5/8th. Certain version of a MML indicator will do this.
We left off when this pair was in consolidation near the FE 127.2. Since then, it has dropped to the FE 161.8 during the 08:00 period. A BAJA bullish formation registered at this bottom.
U.K. CPI was amongst a slew of 08:30 data impacting GBP, and cross pairs. All of the U.K. data came out negative GBP. This partially explains the uptick/bounce, while understanding that there is always a natural bounce at this FE level.
Plotting the retrace, we use the week's open period high of 1.19210 and low = 1.15502. Pair bounced to 38.2% fib, same level as the FE 127.
***
Chart 2 is EUR/CHF 1-Hour with PSQ9. We had a trend line (pink) with plot from June 28th low 1.18624 and July 6th low 1.19652.
We labeled events: Moody's downgrade of Portugal, Trichet/ECB's counter verbiage on plans to overcome that, and U.S. NFP. The pair broke the trend line last Friday July 8th 14:00 (after 12:30 NFP).
The new week opened in consolidation until July 11th 06:00 period, when it broke support. The extension and retrace are described above in chart one comments.
This chart allows us to see how the Mars 0-degree and Moon 180-degree caught the bottom. The same occurrence as EUR/USD. The Mars and Moon levels above this acted as resistance to contain consolidation.
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Chart 3 utilizes the indicator SQ9(Price) with ABC's Point A price of 1.23444 as input Start Price. Direction is down, thus enter "false" in "direction up" box.
The reason we wanted to use this indicator is that the MurreyMath1.0 (MML) created 1/8th lines that were slightly off. The 2 methods/indicators use 1/8th fractions.
The 45-degree interval lines (yellow), are 1/8th intervals.
Divide 45 by 360 = .125
Divide 1 by 8 = .125
Since Point A is now properly aligned at 0-degree, the subsequent levels will better match market movement. This is because the market moves in these intervals, of course. 1/8th is the core Gann interval, in which Murrey based his methodology.
So now you know how to fix a MML chart. In other words, you're better off manually selecting the start price. Use significant high or low.
The indicator Gann_SQ9 also uses these degrees. However, it employs zig-zags to start new swings and degree levels. This is pretty acurate, and a trader can flip to different chart time intervals for bigger or smaller swings. However, we may not always want the program to reset after a new swing.
Therefore, considering all of these factors, we like the SQ9(Price) the best.
****
Earlier today, Moody's downgraded Ireland. many expect Spain and Italy next. This spreading of a problem is called "contagion".
Here is a zoom-in on the 30-min USOIL with MurreyMath1.0 (MML) indicator applied. Nice adherence to fan and MML levels, with the bottom pivot at the 0/8th. Currently price is at the 50% fib retracement level per previous post and chart. The next resistance level is the 61.8 of 97.01, which is very near the MML 4/8th.
thanks and crude test major resisance and goes further can test res 99.and above
Today datas ,, uk unemployment , jobless claims and bernake delevers report on monetory policy
FED Chairman Ben Bernanke's Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report to the House of Representatives started at 14:00.
Aside from the restatement on raising the U.S. debt limits, the market has reacted to his comments on QE3. Basically, it was interpreted as "possible" if discernible growth cannot be sustained.
Oil and gold up, USD down. USOIL also impacted by 14:30 crude oil inventory, which came in worse than projected. USOIL testing previous high of 99.15.
Attached is 15-min EUR/USD with session color. Fib plot July 11th High 1.40611 and July 12th Low 1.38636. We saw pair bounce off high yesterday. Market during July 13th Asian was directionless until the European session.
Reviewing breakout of Asian High 1.40372 (yellow box) on July 13th, we had to factor in 08:30 data, which was negative GBP. Cross-pair correlation has EUR/GBP drag up EUR/USD. The 2 pairs generally move in the same direction.
The breakout stalled at the High at 07:30, before absorbing 08:30 data impact, and making extension to the 127.2 at 09:45.
Market pulled back ahead of Bernanke. We can see the subsequent hits to the 138.2 and close to 161.8.
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The 2nd chart deploys SQ9(Price) with start price of 1..45759. We've also labeled the 45-degree intervals in 1/8ths. The top is +2/8th. This essentially duplicates the Murrey Math methodology.
We can see the bounces and stall at the significant level of 4/8th, which was the break for the weekend. The July 12th bottom was a 1/16th over shoot of the -2/8th.
With MML methodology, once price resurfaces above -2/8th or -1/8th, enter BUY position. Some believe the moves last for 2 intervals of 1/8th. This example would mean to enter just above -2/8th and target 1st exit (TP1) at 0/8th, and 2nd exit (TP2) at 2/8th. The indicator MurreyMath1.0 includes these instructions. The problem is that MurreyMath1.0 doesn't always start off at a precise 1/8th level. The Gann_SQ9 does start at a precise 1/8th level, by using the zig-zag.
Here is an example of what we are pointing out with regards to the Gann_SQ9 indicator. We had to use the 4-hour chart to capture to right top/start price.
We labeled the 45-degree intervals with 1/8th to duplicate Murrey Math. We can see the down move to the -2/8th, just like the last post with SQ9(Price) indicator. The difference is that the Gann_SQ9 plots this automatically, using the zig-zag.
The reversal from the bottom prompted a new calculation using 45-degree (1/8th) intervals. The intervals can be change in the edit function, as default is 22.5 (1/16th).
We can see how nicely the market adheres to these intervals.
Edit; If you want to use SQ9(Price) but dislike the 22.5 (1/16th) interval, simply go to edit function and use "none" for color selection for 22.5.
This is continuance of EUR/USD with PSQ9, when we detailed the extension to the 161.8 on July 12th 07:00. Interval changed to 30-min.
We added a tighter plot of High = July 22nd 22:00 1.40621 and Low = July 12th 02:00 1.39310.
This plot gave us many levels of S&R while pair made its way up. The PSQ9 levels also provided good S&R.
The hits to the 138.2 and 200% extensions were near PSQ9 levels. The pair blew by the 161.8 due to Bernanke.
The top was the 261.8 extension of 1.42742, hit 23:00 period. A BAJA bearish divergence registered at this top. The 09:30 and 15:00 peaks also had divergence.
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More news include another rating agency (Fitch) downgrading Greece. Moody's also announced that they are "reviewing" the U.S. due to impasse with raising the debt ceiling.
30-min chart
This pair had been in consolidation from July 12th 08:00, with the PSQ9 providing S&R for channel.
Fib plot High = July 13th 09:00 1.17209 and Low = July 12th 21:00 1.15766.
The breakout of Low occurred at 19:30 today, and made the 161.8 extension at 21:30 (same level as Mars 270-degree). Pair has hit resistance at the Mars 0-degree and now reattempting to breach.
The aqua blue levels are retracement fibs plotted from High to 161.8 price.
09:00 has EU CPI, and US data at 12:30 and beyond.