A-B-C-D Trade - page 169
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Last week, we spoke about correlation between instruments. The same 2 came up again, diverging while we knew it would snap back.
The indicator MultiInstruments plots 4 intruments on the same chart. We took away the color for 2, and only want to show EUR/CHF plotted against USOIL.
We can see that the 2 were close together and trading in the same direction with similar turning points. It went into divergence on June 17th 16:00, as marked with white vertical line.
USOIL (green) started trending down at the start of the week, June 19th, while EUR/CHF was more in consolidation (sideways).
This changed at 01:15, as labeled. EUR/CHF pivoted up and USOIL pivoted down. We knew the support for both.
We kept an eye on resistance foe EUR/USD, plotting a trend line as well as horizontal retracement fibs. At 02:15 EUR/CHF hit the trend line.and probed a wick to the 88.6% fib.
Entry after price dropped back below the TL filling about 1.2130, which gave trader tight S/L from 88.6 price of 1.2139 (+ spread & cushion). Risk about 15 pips.
Other details such as targets, are on last post.
The 06:00 data German Producer Prices missed projection and EUR/CHF being pushed further down. It has been one hour since data was released, and nothing else (data) of note left for remainder of day.
Pair hit the 200% extension, same as MML 3/8th. We entered again at break of this support. Next is 261.8 1.20280, as seen on last chart.
Attached is split screen with right side chart containing APF posted the other day. Price approaching lower fork and other fibs.
Aside from our GannBox_144 and Golden Section plots, here is a very basic 1-hour chart with wider and tight horizontal fib plots, and a fibo fan plot. All 3 high/low points were easy to recognize.
1) Wider plot: High = June 15th 99.93 and Low = June 15th 17:00 94.01
2) Tight plot (for retracement):
High = June 16th 08:00 95.73 and Low = Low = June 20th 06:00 91.49.
3) Fibo fan: High = June 15th 99.93 and Low = June 20th 06:00 91.49.
Comments:
The bottom was a 138.2 extension of wider plot, and formed a quick BAJA bullish divergence on the 04:00 and 06:00 candles.
The retrace went to the 61.8 horizontal fib and the 50% fibo fan ray. This level is also same as June 17th pullback, and the wider plot's Low.
We thought the plot for the APF on the EUR/CHF 1-Hour chart was posted, but here it is.
Handle = June 13th low 1.20026
Upper corner = June 14th 17:00 high 1.22535
Lower corner = June 16th 12:00 low 1.19450
Add indicator AML for interior lines.
Attached chart also plots ABC that resulted in FE 127 top. This level also regular 161.8 from A-B, and met dotted AL1Lower_ML1 of APF. The thick pink horizontal line shows resistance provided in the past that included the 161.8 extension on June 14th.
For this chart the 2nd point of the trend line at the top (orange) was adjusted to June 20th 02:00 high.
We posted the SELL from that trend line area. This move was temporarily interrupted by negative Euro data at 06:00, and landed its bottom at the lower fork line (yellow). This cluster of support includes the Mars 0-degree, along with white FE 61.8 from previous downward ABC, and blue 38.2 fro A-B.
Pair made its way back up due to jawboning (verbiage) from one member of EU Finance Ministers (Juncker). Resistance at top comprises of 138.2, TL, Mars 90-degree and Moon 180-degree.
***
The 2nd chart is an updated 1-hour with indicator MurreyMath_1.0 (MML)
We drew a trend line (TL) on June 16th 12:00 and June 17th 08:00 lows. This is similar to the APF's lower fork line. Top TL has been detailed already.
On the previous post with this chart, 3 points for fib plotting were labeled. Points 1 was the 4/8th MML and Point 2 was the 6/8th. the bottom was hit at the 2/8th, which was also level of the 200/261.8 extensions that was coveted.
Dotted blue fibs are for retracement.
Let's again plot wide fibs, tight fibs, and fibo fan.
Wide plot (best seen on 4-HR): High = June 7th 1.46948 and Low = June 16th 1.40724.
Fibo fan: High = June 14th 17:00 1.44963 and Low = June 16th 1.40724.
Tight fibs: Low = June 20th 07:00 1.41900 and High = June 20th 14:00 1.43269.
138.2 extension (yellow)= 1.43791 (hit June 20th 23:00)
50% fib (blue) of wide plot = 1.43836
88.6% fibo fan ray (orange) = met same 23:00 candle
When we apply the MurreyMath1.0 indicator, it basically has the same plots and S&R levels. For example, on the 4/8th line, that is the 50% fib.
So these 3 simple plots resulted in a cluster, which is the objective. These can be plotted in advance of course. Allows trader to trade the extensions or bounces. Can even set orders in advance.
Next, will provide exit script.
To those viewers that are not proficient, a script is not an indicator or EA. It is a set of instructions for the MT4 platform, Here are a very basic type, that may help you.
Script: CloseAllTrades
If trader has multiple positions opened and wish to close all.
This one is an EA: Stop Loss Mover
Moves your stop-loss to break-even for trade, once a certain price is reached. Attach EA after trade is opened. Enter that price in the inputs tab.
German Zew data which was released at 09:00, missed by quite a bit, so negative EURO is initially dropping EUR/USD to the June 20th 14:30 high 1.43269, and 78.6 of 1.48205 from another plot. Small and quick bounce up but now can go further down.
More data today, as well as Greece confidence vote. Tomorrow is U.S. FMOC.
Forgot to mention that we posted an economic data indicator in the indicator section.
It plots vertical lines and allows us to mouse over to see info. Color coded to level of impact, low-med-high. Gets full calendar directly from DailyFX.
EUR/USD seemingly wants to stay in a range ahead of the Greece confidence vote, which is supposed to be decided by 00:00 midnight GMT.
The media conveying confidence that Greek P.M. will survive vote, and implement the additional austerity program.
Day like this, which also is cautious and awaiting the FOMC, can practice plotting. Try trend lines, fibs, fans, and APF on EUR/USD, EUR/CHF, and USOIL.
The Greek confidence vote is at midnight Greece time, which is now. Regret confusion.