A-B-C-D Trade - page 141
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Hi friends!I've met Anna Monti on the web and her Forex Freebot. I find this stuff interesting for newcomers. Just for notice
Grant,
If her robot/EA uses something discussed in this thread, please explain and provide link.
If it doesn't, please post this in the indicator section. This thread is not intended for advertising.
Thank you
Attached is the EUR/USD weekly chart we posted, with price to time conversion based on fib ratios.
When plotting fib retracement, use High = Nov 22, 2009 and Low = June 6, 2010. This produces 78.6% fib of 1.4443, which is where pair is now.
Also keep eye on expansion. ABC swings are clear. FE 100 = 1.4518.
The exercise pointing to the 2.35% multiplier as a pivot point this week should be monitored. Pivot can be up or down. We saw the long-term trend line as significant resistance. If broken and sustained, it would denote a trend change to the upside in our opinion. It has been broken.
Also note the RSI(4). We can see the 5 locations where divergence occurred (marked by X). If this week's candle closes with a lower RSI reading, it would qualify as a bearish divergence scenario.
Next step would be to drop down to the daily interval chart and look for the EFT trigger signal, which involves waiting for a red histogram to close.
The 2 steps would illuminate a pullback or reversal opportunity.
reference post # 1398 USOIL
As mentioned, USOIL had likely Point D target of 113.11 as that was the 161.8 extension and FE100 location, as well as the 900-degree level on Gann_SQ9 indicator.
This was hit precisely at end of week, per attached. That's about 200 pips from the time we posted it.
Remember the important Gann numbers: 45, 90, 180, 360. In our example, 900 is a multiple of 90. When the sequences exceed 360, we have to view it as starting the cycle over again. 720 is 2 cycles of 360, and therefore important.
Here's a swing trade from Apr 5th to end of week Apr 8th.
We have pink vertical line on BAJA bullish divergence candle Apr 5th 13:00, with 15-min entry at 14:15 price 1.41793. This is Point A.
Fib plot in yellow: Point A per above, and B = Apr 6th 15:00 1.43476.
We have HAS candles, which can help you stay in the trade. We removed regular candles and switched it to line chart on in lime green color.
For Bollinger Band affectionados, we have that on chart so we point out additional behavioral compliance.
Diagonal S&R lines are Planetary SQ9 applied 4 times at angles of 0, 90, 180, and 270 degrees. This was posted as a template recently here. Notice entry near bottom 270-degree line.
RSI(4) is marked with aqua colored X to identify divergence that went along with key swings A, B, and C.
The regular 138.2% fib of 1.44157 is marked as Point D1, which is exit point #1. The 161.8% of 1.44591 is labeled D2 for exit #2.
This is also called A-B = C-D when trading to the 161.8. It means both legs are about equal in length.
Divergence occurred when candles hit the upper red PSQ9 90-degree line.
Chart shows A-B plot with fib retracement tool. If we use the fib expansion tool for ABC, the FE 100 is about the same as the regular 161.8. As mentioned in our lessons, this is due to the pullback being 38.2% (Swing C).
Obviously, since the stop-loss was small, the risk/reward is astronomical (very good). Practice looking for this kind of behavior with these tools. The more you see it and understand it, the more comfortable and confident you will be.
A current C-Span (T.V. channel) interview with Melissa Lee of CNBC reminds us that she hosts a new show on currency trading. "Money In Motion" airs on CNBC every Friday at 17:30 Eastern Time (New York) . Here is their web site:
News Headlines
The African Union has presented a peace plan and cease fire to the Libyan government and now approaching the rebel. They won't say if it includes the departure of Gaddafi and his sons.
The 1st chart is EUR/USD daily.
Low = Jan 9th and High = Feb 2nd.
138.2 = 1.4241 (hit Mar 21st)
161.8 = 1.4476 ( hit Apr 8th)
Extensions were met with precision.
***
The 2nd chart is a 1-Hour EUR/USD. When we look at the 4-Hour, we can see the major swings better to ascertain when to plot the low.
Low = Apr 8th 08:00 1.4391
High = Apr 8th 20:00 1.4487
The red check mark denotes start of new week on Apr 10th 19:00 GMT. The 38.2 fib provided support until early Asian when it drop one level down to the 50% fib.
Consolidation still in force, only witnessing test to 61.8% mid-Euro session. Day saw only low-impact data, thus technical trading and a little speculation on the Libya situation by fundamental traders.
When we switch the same chart with theses fibs, to the 15-min interval to analyze the breakout of Asian Low, we can see move stop around 61.8% fib and forming 2 doji candles.
***
3rd Chart is USD/CHF daily. Fib plot is High = Feb 11th and Low = Mar 2nd. The 138.2% extension was hit Mar 16th - 18th.
Pair bounced up to the 23.6% fib and now testing Apr 8th pivot low. We will monitor this for potential drop back to the 138.2% .8982.
***
Aside from the posted EUR/USD short, we will post the short on GOLD CFD XAU_USD, and USOIL next.
1st chart is a continuance of the 4-Hour USOIL chart we posted end of week, with the Gann_SQ9 and fib extension.
We can see the retrace approaching the current swing's 360-degree level of 109.22.
***
2nd chart is 30-min GOLD under the CFD symbol XAU_USD. We have the indicator Heiken Ashi MA T3 new_alerts. As mentioned, this can act as a MA for support and resistance as well as an indication of trend.
Fib plot: Low = Apr 8th 00:00 1456.20 and High = Apr 10th 22:00 1476.35.
The 30-min allows us to see price action drop below the red HAS candles while breaking the 23.6% retrace fib.
The yellow fib is a wider plot's extensions.
At the bottom, we have a multi-time frame HAS, named 4TF HAS Bar that looks similar to the forex freedom bars. The intervals are day, 4-hour, 1-hour, and 30-min. Allows us to monitor all time frames without flipping back and forth. When we switch chart to 1-hour, the MTF HAS changes to week, day, 4-hour, 1-hour.
On the 1-hour, we can see reduced RSI(4) readings at the top Apr 10th 22:00 through Apr 11th 01:00, compared to the peak of Apr 8th 10:00.
As mentioned often, this gives us an advanced notice of possible retrace. We drop down to monitor the MTF HAS and saw candle close below it at 09:00 candle 1471.10.
The next candle at 09:30 was a thrust, with XUA_USD hitting the 50% fib 1466.28 during 10:00 candle. It consolidated there until another thrust brought it down to the 78.6 fib of 1460.51.
edit: attached are the 2 indicators
Here is pair hitting 50% retrace and diagonal support line of 90-degrees from Planetary SQ9. This chart has the indicator applied 4 times at different angles, per recent post and template was provided.
The fib plot: Low = Apr 8th 00:00 1.42901 and High = Apr 10th 23:15 1.4482
And here's the follow-up of Gold XAU_USD on the 30-min chart.
The mentioned divergence is highlighted in pink, over groups of candles and RSI, and EFT humps.
We had advised fib plot (aqua color). Now we add ABC swings (yellow) for downward extension. Market now at FE 161.8, where a natural bounce will occur.
Swing C was within tolerance of the Heiken Ashi MA indicator. Together with the EFT remaining below its zero-line, trader can remain calm in staying with the trade.