A-B-C-D Trade - page 121
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Attached is EUR/USD trigger chart with arrows pointing to entries and approximate max gain/loss
1) 08:45 BUY 1.3551 +130 pips
2) 13:00 SELL 1.3665 -18 pips
3) 16:15 SELL 1.3680 current, with 1.3636 as lowest thus far (+44 pips) near retrace 38.2 fib (not shown).
We also have retrace fib plot, 10-EMA, and HAS. Recently posted Exit EA has setting for trailing MA.
Fundamental Influences:
The spike up around 10:30 was due to more ECB "hawkish" comments on controlling inflation.
Current pullback probably due to increase in U.S. Consumer Confidence, released at 15:00, and some profit taking.
We're late with posting BAJA Log and some stats, etc.
Yesterday's move. USD/CHF 30-min chart ABC swings:
A = Feb 18th high .9538
B =Feb 20th low .9430
C = Feb 22nd high .9505
FE 100 = .9397 (hit Feb 22nd 12:00)
FE 127 = .9368 (hit Feb 22nd 18:00)
Regular 138.2 = .9362 (just hit 03:00)
***
BAJA divergence Feb 22nd 03:00 caught Swing C top.
Entry SELL 03:45 .9489
S/L just above pivot high of .9505 Risk = 20 pips
***
BAJA also caught Swing A top, with 10:00 2nd peak candle, Swing B, and a top between B-C.
EUR/USD poking its head above week's high, but face significant resistance at 1.3743, where a bounce short opportunity lies.
If EUR/USD fails to rise to 1.3743, we'll check for BAJA divergence. If qualified, we switch to 15-min and wait for trigger.
1.3726 is the 161.8 regular extension of A-B 1.3523 and 1.3649.
Aside from being previous significant high, 1.3743 is also the 138.2 extension fo yesterday's Asian low-high.
Layered entry is option too, as we don't want to get shut out completely.
Filled 1.3729, exited net 1.3716 for +13 pips shave on this short.
GBP/USD has BOE at 09:30. The subject of inflation has shrouded the U.K. as well.
Speculators brought pair up to 1.6188 early Asian, and we subsequently saw a 138.2 extension to 1.6222, before retreating prior to European open.
AUD/USD had similar extension to 138.2 of 1.0059 before dropping back below Point B of 1.0033.
Gold in channel since U.S. session.
USD-CHF made it to its 161.8 where it sits now. Wide plot was FEb 18th high to Feb 20th low.
GBP/USD experienced an initial spike after BOE Minutes at 09:30, but has retraced to its 38.2 after breaking diagonal trend line.
EUR/GBP also spiked in GBP direction and reversed to its 138.2.
EUR/USD, as illustrated on attached 15-min chart, bounced off 1.3741 at 11:30 to max gain 1,3710, which was 61.8 fib,
We added 32-EMA for additional support visual.
Most recent rise to 1.3785 is BAJA divergence candle at 15:00, with entry at 16:15 open price of 1.3760. Just hit support and previous resistance of 1.3743. Top is also regular 200% extension of A-B first move.
There were 3 moves up, each consisting of 6 candles. The 1st 2 pullback were 10 candles in duration.
Interesting article from bloomberg.com, about the one person in the FED that opposes the others, and thus the overall strategy of the FED.
Fed's Hoenig Says U.S. Should Break Up Largest Financial Firms - Bloomberg
Attached is an updated EUR/USD 4-hour of the one posted at the beginning of this week.
We move the low of the fibo fan to Feb 22nd 04:00 low 1.3523.
The tight fib plot is now that new low and 12:00 candle high of 1.3702. This produces regular 138.2 = 1.3770 and 161.8 = 1.3813.
We can see current/recent price action stalled at area of:
the fan's 78.6 (aqua),
the fib arc's 78.6 (red),
horizontal wide 78.6 retrace fib (yellow), and
the regular 138.2 extension (white)
Next level up is 1.3813.
Yellow "X" on dips indicate BAJA Bullish BUY