A-B-C-D Trade - page 100
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EUR/JPY broke pivot of 110.04, while USD/JPY has been supported by LSMA Channel line.
EUR/USD encountered several fibs and a Murrey Math line 1.3242-49, and bounced. Next support 161.8 and 112.5-degree at 1.3225/28. Watch trend line and look for divergence followed by thin bar Ehler's Fisher.
AUD/USD dipped one candle (30-M) to 23.6 and bounced back up.
USD/JPY broke channel line, and EUR/JPY dipping. Those 2 moving in tandem while EUR/USD pulled both directions now, as represented by blue (up) candle 09:30 GMT on 15-min chart.
Pic shows candle dropped to blue 4/8th Murrey Math line 82.81
The USD/JPY pair made a full retrace to Friday's Jan 14th low, which is the 161.8 regular extension of Jan 12th high/low plot.
EUR/JPY made a regular 161.8 extension from plot Friday's Jan 14th high to Asian Low. If you measured top as Asian High, that's good too.
AUD/USD turn was true as reported at the time. Ascended to 78.6% retrace fib based on plot from Jan 14th high to low. Use 30-min for better view. We also like to watch for divergence on this interval.
EUR/USD had divergence on the 30-min chart. It did break the trend line we plotted on the 15-min. First let's review.
We wrote earlier about the day's top being the wider plot's 61.8. From there, pair drifted down and created 2 more peaks for the trend line with the 23:45 and 06:15 candles.
We observed and advised support levels en route down. Asian Low 1.3285 was established at last candle of session and was promptly broken shortly thereafter.
Major thrust occurred off bounce of trend line 23:45 and played out to ABCD to FE 161.8 - which is bottom for day thus far. This is area of a horizontal cluster of fibs and a Murrey Math Line.
If we look at the 1-Hour chart, we'll see the 09:00 candle close at the Regular 138.2 fib area mentioned on earlier post. The 15-min also showed divergence for the turn.
Trend line was broken with an ABC pattern, which made a FE 127. This is also a 61.8 retrace fib from day's high to day's low plot.
Entry SELL near top of that FE 127 retrace level assisted by 5-min divergence, Ehler's Fisher bar flip to thin, and fractal.
U.S. on holiday today.
Cheers
Further clarification to question on pattern recognition thread (post #36) about QTA. The QTA's function within the ZUP is more comprehensive in that it must calculate every zig-zag.
We, on the other hand when using it detached from the ZUP, place emphasis on significant swings. This is the same as plotting horizontal fibs. There are days/periods when it gets choppy and the 5 or 15-min has too many options for the plot. What do we do? We increase the interval until we can see the significant swings.
This is what we need to do with the QTA. If it switches to minor swings/plots, use your manual fib time zone tool (changing default parameters) to plot significant high-high, low-low, high-low, and low-high, to look for clusters.
Also need to repeat edit of last post. TIME (time fibs) is 1 of 3 dimensions, along with Space (fibo fan), and Price (horizontal fibs).
When we have all 3 dimensions, it provides a very powerful signal and increased probability for success.
Edit: lack of sleep resulted in confusing 2 threads, and I accidentally replaced the last post's chart with a QTA example chart meant for pattern recognition thread. It has been rectified.
Here is Aussie/USD 1-Hour. The QTA plotted one of its two measurements, high-to-high on a small swing. The 2 plots produced a cluster for Jan 17th 17:00.
We added a manual significant high-to-high on main body of chart in blue, which also caught the turn at Jan 17th 16:00 (doji candle).
We had horizontal 61.8 fib retracement from Jan 13th high 1.0018 and Jan 14th 12:00 low .9854.
A fib arc plot from Jan 13th 17:00 high 1.0016 and Jan 16th 23:00 resulted in curvature resistance.
EUR/USD 1-Hour time fib projection plot. We want time fibs spaced out as we reason that most moves last more than 1 or 2 candles. Therefore it's safe to say that we can't expect pivots at majority of time fib when they are that close.
We went back past the current QTA position at this time, and selected major highs and lows.
High-to-high = Dec 31st 16:00 and Jan 4th 13:00
Low-to-low = Dec 29th 23:00 1.3083 and Jan 3rd 07:00 1.3250
Switch to 4-hours and we can better view that these plots make sense preceding Jan 5th & 6th. However, switch back to 1-hour and we can see that only 1 cluster exist. SELL Jan 4th 06:00.
Plot retracement fib tool with high = Jan 5th 17;00 1.3192 and low = Jan 5th 19:00 1.3133, and arrive at the 138.2 and 161.8 for profit during last hour of Asian session. As it worked out, pair bolted down further at end European.
Attached is AUD/USD 30-min chart with QTA's fib time projection, and date/time labels turned on. We were happy with the plots of high-to-high and low-to-low being recent and significant relative to our interval.
We have 2 fibo fans, which caught the 03:00 GMT pivot up. A single time fib high-to-high 1.272 had turn at 02:45. Fib retrace plot (red) from yesterday's low to high had its 61.8 at pivot.
ABC swings 00:30/04:30/06:00 had FE 100 = .9982.
Jan 14th 07:00 high = .9985 (yellow fibs)
Measured retrace from Swing C to high of .9987, producing 23.6 = .9974, 38.2 = .9966. Recent high from Jan 17th 11:30 = .9967.
Fib time cluster had turn scheduled for 06:54 and 07:22, catching the bounce at the top. Fibo fan's .886 also there.
For your manual check of QTA's plot, here are details.
High-to-high: Jan 16th 23:30 and Jan 17th 11:30 = 1.618 at 06:54
Low-to-low: Jan 17th 06:30 and Jan 18th 00:30 = .382 at 07:22
We see divergence on 30-min.
Similar divergence with EUR/USD. Noting GBP and EUR data at 09:30-10:00.
Switching from 30-min to 15-min for SELL entry trigger at 10:15 @ 1.3398.
Less volatility with AUD/USD, sees pair still sitting on 23.6 retrace fib.
Both cases can utilize fib retracement for exit levels.
Jan 18th Recap
Divergence in AUD/USD and EUR/USD, which often trades in same direction, detected early Euro session on 30-min chart. Switched to 15-min trigger for 10:15 after data reaction subsided. Both pairs went on to profit about 20 gross pips.
AUD/USD off 09:30 2nd hump retraced to its 38.2 during consolidation. Attached is 15-min trigger chart.
EUR/USD 09:00 2nd hump divergence retraced to 61.8, prior to making another divergence hump at 14:30. That one, with entry 15:45 on 15-min, bagged 55 pips to the 78.6 fib.
EUR/JPY saw divergence late in day with 2nd hump at 15:00. Drop was swift and 16:30 entry on 15-min became far from top. If trader accepted these conditions, 35 gross pips was max move, or 24 pips to the 61.8 retrace fib during 15:30 candle period.