The London Open - page 185
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Dan007, Thank you very much for insight to the way that you do your trading, seems very interesting and good exaplanation as well... ...Please could you telll me where you got your CCI indicator, as it looks a lot better to read, or could you post it on here?
Hi
Give me a shout if you need the template.
Having 2 CCI's on your charts is very useful for reading the long and short term trends.
Have a good one.
D
Weaker session its claimed triggered by weakness in Chinese stocks.Obviously, as we always followed Chinese stocks on the way up! Whateverthe reason I believe it to be a good test. Can the longs keep theirnerve, will the so called buyers on dips emerge? All will be revealedover the next few sessions if this bout of profit taking remains for alittle longer. Spreads 5-10bp wider with the odd account taking P butin all honesty most of the spread move was govy related rather than realselling. Good article by Billy Gross from Pimco on their website today,essentially communicating in a more eloquent and educated manner thesame thing I have been shouting for the last 3 months I.e. we cannotreturn to the way things were, we cannot expect growth to return back to5% per annum and therefore this means higher unemployment and lowerP/E's which in turn probably means lower stock markets and also lowerinterest rates unless of course the central banks leave the taps runningfor too long. I would like to see a few more days of weakness to reallytest the resolve of this market and the green shooters.
none of these files uploaded work can anyone help
Good morning all
Dow is being extremely stubborn below 9,000. Will it rally from here? Who knows…Previous high at 9,111 so again I will be looking for a cheeky short ahead of this previous high incase we see a convincing double top on the 4 hr chart
USD X had a good run yesterday making our EURUSD & USDCAD position work out very well. Look for USDX to hold support above its DP at 79.30 region. The 15min 50ma is just ahead and can be a stubborn MA to get passed. We really need to see a break of 79.55 for USD to have another good move higher.
CABLE
• We spoke at length about the MP yesterday and this is our major support we need to sidestep
• Probably best we wait for a break here at 1.6335 for any short plays
• We can always add on a 123 below if the CCI´s are too oversold at point of entry
• We also need to be aware of any double bottom on the MP on 4hr chart. As soon as this trend reversal finishes on the 4hr chart we will have our neckline incase USD decides to play games with us and weaken again
• Wont be looking at any long plays unless it gathers momentum back above the WP at 1.6440 region
USDCAD
• Building nicely and still long with stop below 4hr 20ma
• WP is offering 1st major resistance at 1.0940 and would like to see a break out here for a real move higher
• Let’s play the break but make sure the CCI´s aren’t too overbought at point of ent
• The WP break would then clear the 4hr 50ma suggesting further USD strength across the board
• Any move back below the 60min 50ma would suggest USD is weak again
EURGBP
• Looks good with a potential golden cross looming on the 15min chart
• At present we have a higher high and need this to change with a lower high and lower low to suggest a change in direction
• 0.8560 will be the key area of support so lets wait for a 123 for any south play
Verdict
• As it stands it’s a patient mornin
• Can’t touch CABLE, maybe EURUSD on the 123 back below the MP 1.4040 regio
• I like USDCAD through the WP but other than that patience for now
Hi
Just got back in after our powercut...
D
The express train to spread zero marches on at a scary pace. Marketcontinues to grind tighter on an almost daily basis and the percy panicregarding Chinese stocks is but a distant memory already. Liquiditycontinues to prevail over everything and the market really is a rewindback to 2006, ie if it has yield ship it in and surf the carry wave.One thing we are seeing more and more now is that the basis in places isgoing the other way ie from massively negative to positive. Cash bondslike Soaf, Abu Dhabi, new Gaz Euro are trading at or through the CDS andlook very expensive or the CDS is very cheap. If we assume the CDS ischeap it means that any CDS longs will suffer even more pain over thecoming weeks. Its always difficult to back against a mad exuberant market but a wordof caution. Here's something that was doing the rounds earlier in theday. "1929-1930 equity rally lasted 147 days +46%. The rally off theMarch 6th low this year has been 145 days and we're up 46%." I am surea coincidence but I wonder how the market felt back then on day 145?Amazingly its yet another month end tomorrow, before we know it Summerwill be gone and the EM pipeline will be gushing. More of the sametomorrow!
Good morning
Nationwide HPI gave the market a lot of confidence yesterday and GBP seems to be back on the cards again after a few days of selling.
We are not going to fight the Wall St drive and appreciate its strength and remain with the trend. With this in mind the only option is for us to remain bearish for the USD, as we have been for many weeks.
We have had 2 or 3 days of hope for the USD but that was extremely short lived as you have seen.
British Airways are posting 2nd Qtr results today and they are not expected to be great so keep an eye on that FTSE.
USD Index looks very weak again so lets stay with the trend.
CABLE
• After a solid break of the Head & Shoulder neckline, GBP has found its needed strength again.
• The previous right shoulder resistance is just ahead now at 1.6555 (WR1) and the temptation is to look for a short here with a stop above.
• This however is against the trend so be aware it’s a risky trade and GBP has been the strongest currency out there over the last 24 hours.
• The safest play for us would be to wait for the pullback and use the 4hr trigger for the next move higher.
• Let’s look for a pullback towards the 1.6460 region and buy off support.
Good morning
Manufacturing PMI at 9.30 in the UK and ISM Manufacturing in the States at 3.00pm are key today.
I saw on my thread and emails that some of you took CABLE long from Fridays support level on the 4hr 20ma. Well done and well observed!
USD Index was key on Friday and when it broke the WP at 78.88 everything kicked off.
Today we resume with USD in its continuous downtrend. USDX is below the DP and WP so hard to see where the retracements will come until these levels are broken on the upside. Looking at the USDX chart nothing suggests for me to go long of the USD this morning.
CABLE
4hr chart is overbought so we need retracements..
Technically (even though USDX does not confirm this as yet) we need a pullback to the old breakout level at 1.6586 region
As mentioned on Friday its not worth trying to short the strongest currency out there so again for those who are patient wait for the pullback before buying off support.
EURUSD
With weak USD across the board we are best to remain on the upside for EURUSD.
Yes EURGBP is weak with GBP the being the power house but USD is certainly the weakest of the lot for now.
Technically would like to see a pullback towards the 4hr 20ma at 1.4180 region.
USDJPY
A strong support line from the 13 July.
Technically still like UJ lower in its downward channel.
MP is 1st support at 94.48 and then key support at 94.00 for confirmation that UJ will make its move down towards MS1 at 92.00 region.
Verdict
Need retracements this morning.
Look for pullbacks to the support levels in EURUSD and GBPUSD before further strength against the USD.
UJ looks good through these support levels.
Good morning all
CABLE at 1.7000 and Wall St eyeing up 9,500!!!
As we keep saying on a daily basis stay with the trend and do not fight this market no matter what you might think. The USD is weak and will remain that way until the charts suggest otherwise.
The USDX is again setup below the DP and below the 60min 20ma suggesting further weakness to come. However any break back above 77.81 would suggest a pullback for the USD. Keep an eye on this as a break above the DP would suggest the currencies would have a pullback below their respective DPs.
CABLE
• The trend is clearly up but trading below a big psychological level such as 1.7000 will make buyers nervous
• There is no silver cross looming with the trend here so potential for a low risk trade is limited
• The only silver cross potential ahead is a break below the DP to retest the 4hr 20ma
• The trend is strongly up in CABLE so as long as it holds the DP, we will only be looking for longs
• Any break of the DP at 1.6870 should see a pullback to the 4hr 20ma region
EURUSD
• A strong uptrend with weak USD across the board
• The 60min 20ma and DP are holding at present so only long plays for now until the DP is broken
• Key resistance is the 15min 50ma so similar to yesterday we should be patient until we see a break back above this 50MA for a move higher
• Any break below the DP at 1.4353 (and USDX above DP) should see a pullback to the 4hr 20ma at DS1
USDCHF
• The USD could still go both ways this a
• If the USD remains weak and USDCHF remains below the DP watch the break of the 15min 50ma to the downside
• However as it stands the currency has a wide gap from the DP to DR1 on the upside but please remember this is against the trend so limit your risk
Verdict
• No potential silver crosses with the trend are in vie
• Thoughts of pullbacks cross my mind but not until the DPs are broken
• Only attack the currencies with the trend if 1) the USDX weakens and 2) the respective 15min 50ma´s are broken with the trend
What a messy morning!!!
No direction, fake outs everywhere and I am still left clueless which way the USD is going 5 hours since the open
Best to play golf than trade this market.
D