The London Open - page 182
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Good morning
All major CCI´s are in red on the USD Index suggesting further weakness with the USD this morning. The 4 hour chart suggests a potential double bottom looming at 79.12 or a break would see further weakness in this market.
CABLE
The 60min chart suggests this setting up for a 123 long.
Both the 60min and 4hr trend are green suggesting further weakness in the USD.
The neckline is at 1.6412 and a break here would suggest further strength in GBP up to the next resistance at 1.6480 region.
Looking for a Golden Cross of 60min moving averages and a break of 1st resistance at 1.6412 with trend.
Not interested on the south side unless the WP is broken below 1.6300 on a 123 play.
EURUSD
A flat market to be honest and only creeping up with USD weakness across the board.
1.4202 is first major resistance and would need to see a break here for a move higher.
Verdict
CABLE looks best on break of the 1.6412 resistance
Good morning all.
USDX
The longer term weakening of the dollar has continued after a little pullback on Friday to the 4hr 20ema where is was repelled and has fallen to what appears to be a short-term support at 79.13
This is the level it needs to clearly break through before the next big move down to the June low of 78.32
With a little divergence on the 4hr CCI it would be no surprise to see a little more range-bound activity until the moving averages catch-up but still bearish overall with daily CCI now out of oversold territory.
15m chart shows consolidation, having found support off the 1m & 5m silver-cross and 79.20 would need to give way before tackling the low at 79.13
15m 60m and 4hr trends still down so a waiting game and good opportunity to look for looking at the bigger picture.
If 79.25 resistance does break then we can expect to see a push up to the 60m 20/50 around the 79.35 area but not much higher
NZDUSD
This pair looks quite attractive for a longer term play and I will be looking at taking a near quarter futures contract should the 06512 level get broken
The 60m and 4hr trends are both up, the trigger is high and there’s quite a gap between the 60m 20&50 so not expecting fireworks immediately
I would look for 06589 then potentially 06950 later.
With that in mind there could be a potental long should we get a little retracement to the 06450 region, so a 50/50 play. 50% on bounce then 50% on break later.
Should the second entry level not get hit then total risk on just half position would be just 20 pips.
AUDUSD
Another contender for a solid move up is the Ozzie. Again maybe not immediately but longer term looks to be one to hold for a few days or weeks
60m and 4hr trends are up so once again playing with the trend. It’s just a matter of timing and getting the right entry price.
Support should come from around the 08045-55 around this level you will have solid support from the daily pivot and 60m 50sma around 08010.
Should the previous high at 08080 get hit and broken then 08150 might be a good 1st target with 08230 thereafter.
Awaiting usdx to show me the best place to enter on both these and will happily wait for the push up to the crossing 60m 20&50 before jumping in.
Well done guys...
Overall lots of pips in the bank for the start of the week.
Lets make this a huge pip week. You know the levels i am targeting in CABLE and the other USD related currencies. Emails will be sent with updates and hopefully we see CABLE hitting 1.6700 over the next couple of days.
D
Good morning
Wall Street Future continues to climb and at some point soon I would expect this to retrace back to its MP & WP at 8,500. This impact would surely lead to a stronger USD for a short time.
However the USD does remain in a downward trend for now. The 1st sign of strength would be for the USD Index to break back above its DP at 79.00. Personally for real confirmation I would like to see a silver cross of the 60min 20ma and 4hr 20ma.
Wall ST and USD Index this morning do not give us concrete evidence of direction, so lets play the cautious approach, which was very different to yesterday.
CABLE
Both longer term CCI´s are green, suggesting further strength in GBP
However short term CCI´s are red suggesting a retracement is on for now.
DP is at 1.6480 which was yesterday’s key resistance and consequently key support now
A break through 1.6480 would see a potential pullback to our original break at 1.6430.
1st level of support is 1.6492 and then 1.6480.
1st level of resistance and neckline is at 1.6525 and then 1.6556
Patience is needed here
EURUSD
Longer Term CCI´s are green suggesting further strength
However short term CCI´s are red suggesting a retracement is on for now
Potential Double bottom on DP with neckline at 1.4218 with key resistance at 1.4249
A break through the DP at 1.4193 would see a potential pullback to the 60min 50ma at 1.4165 region.
Patience is needed here.
We have been watching EURJPY with interest all morning. We have seen relative EUR strength against the USD, this has helped pull EURJPY back up off the 4 hourly 20 MA. Now looking for a possible break of the 134.10 level looking to retest the previous resistance at 134.60/70. A low risk trade and aim to bank up at the previous resistance levels whilst moving stops in tight ahead of earnings reports out this afternoon.
Wall ST Future is relentless..Glad we held off and stuck to our discilpined approach to the strategy.
A video has been sent out re UJ and Wall St but with this relentless buying and earnings out later i think we might need to be patient on the H&S in UJ.
Cheers
D
Hi Dan
I didn't trade today, nothing leapt out at me saying "take me, take me" like yesterday so I kept my pips safely in the tin. I did however learn lots today, the most staggering thing was that Beyonce is your girlfriend! Whoa, way to go Dan.
Looking forward to some more revelations tomorrow.
See ya.
RS
Good Morning all,
With WSFUT breaking the June highs yesterday we now see it settling just above the 8850 level. This morning I can see both sides with USD weakness and strength so I will be looking for break out plays on both EUR and GBP
GBPUSD:
• Daily Pivot is now above the 4 hourly and hourly 20 this to me suggests further moves down to be expected.
• A break through the lows at 1.6385 would trigger a move to the MP at 1.6340 and potentially to WP at 1.630
• To play to the upside I would like a break of the Daily pivot and a 123
• 4 hourly 20 may act as a major resistance level so we might look for the kiss there.
• Play the breaks if you are unsure.
EURUSD
• Has really struggled to break through the previous highs and make an attack on the 1.43 or 1.45 level.
• This morning we have again the DP above the hourly 20 and the potential that this MA will act as a major resistance now.
• I am looking for a break of the 4 hourly 20 MA at 1.417
• To the upside I will be looking for a break of the DP and 1.423
Verdict:
Personally at this moment in time it looks as if there may well be a small amount of dollar strength this morning so I will be looking for early selling opportunities.
Afternoon all
Well what a morning and good to see a few of you make your weekly target from our CABLE trades on Monday and Wednesday.
I dont know how often i need to remind myself not to trade the afternoon sessions. If you can make 500 pips per week b4 10am why bother trading the US open. I am still short DOW Future and UJ. After being 60 pips up in UJ and only banking 50% at DS1, i am now back to flat at DP. Wall St was silly and i will blame that on James. We are 40 pips down and have a stop not far above from here
I wont run this out of court too much as hits have to be made, but technically this beast needs to pullback. A good trader knows when to take a hit no matter how much it hurts. It purely offsets my UJ from the day which is purely frustrating rather than hurting too much on the pip count. At least CABLE was a cracker and we made a lot there so happy days again with the morning session.
Ok well backs to the wall and watching DOW as we speak. Infact shorted again at the figure so hedged in at not too bad a level....Get down u beast!!!!
See u tom
D
Bought back some DOW at 70 to reduce risk after selling at 8900
Will leave 50% stake on for now.
Limited risk.
D