The London Open - page 181
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That was one long week and I am glad we are done. The market continuesto trade like an old man well past his peak. There is not a strongsense of panic yet, however Russia in particular seems to be driftingslowly wider on a daily basis. The news flow has been ok of late andyet the green shooters are starting to lose their voices. You all knowmy view so I wont repeat it however for me the most important event ofthe past few weeks was the BOE halting its QE programme. Now there arevarious theories as to why this happening and as always I have one. Idon't buy the fact they are halting as its been successful and the Vshaped recovery is well on its way. I think the opposite, there is dataout there to suggest that QE and the market rallying are linked. Banksare still not lending directly so the money instead of finding its wayinto the real economy is being recycled back into the market creatinganother bubble. This of course is my theory only and the BOE havepaused their operations to assess what happens to the markets and moneysupply in the interim so watch this space. Its not all D&G however as Ihave some good news for you green shooters out there. 4 of my friendswho lost their jobs over the last 6 months have all found themselves newroles relatively easily in the past few weeks so there is some realanecdotal evidence! I am looking forward to next week, more earnings,will the market hang in there, and THE OPEN begins. Enjoy the weekend!
Mr P......
Evening all
Lets have a cracking week and make some glorious pips together...
We will zone in on the EUR and GBP for the best setups and then nail them.
See u bright and early.
D
morning all
Trust you had an enjoyable weekend. I am still not sure how England managed a draw in the 1st Ashes test but happy days to get away with the result!!!
Indices remain weak but 8000 still hasn’t been broken in the Wall St Future
USDCHF remains supported after a small sell off on Friday. Would really like to see the Daily trend change here and break this Daily 50ma. Look for the cross this week and see if we can be sure that the USD is really going to sustain its strength.
CABLE
• Asia had a perfect play from 1.6185 and now even though the CCI´s are red, the 60min 21 CCI is too oversold.
• We need to be patient as we are boxed in between the Daily 20ma and Daily 50ma
• 1.5975 and 1.6385 are now major support and resistance levels on the 4hr chart
• Need to wait for pullback before we can trade with the CCI´
EURUSD
• Similar to CABLE & USDCHF with the Daily MA´s close to crossing
• 1.3829 and 1.4071 are the major support and resistance levels on the 4hour chart
• Again it would be safer to wait for true direction and see if the Daily MA´s cross in USDCHF and EURUSD
JPY´s
• USDJPY has broken its DP and this is driving the other JPYs lower
• We are a tad late so need to wait for a small pullback in EURJPY as it would be better to short around the 90 level for a 30 pip risk
• There is support on the bottom of the triangle around the 128.10 level
Verdict
• A little unsure this am.
• Yes I see USDJPY breaking DP but I also see support ahead
• Everything seems boxed between the Daily MA´s making direction a little unclear however CCI´s do state GBP & INDICES etc lower. The entry for CABLE was at 1.6185 and to sell 80 points lower is a little risky with the Daily 50ma ahead
• A little patience could be in order to see if the DAILY crosses happen
• DOW Future is sitting above 8,000 and the question is will it break
• EURJPY looks well setup but would like a pullback on the 15min trigge
Good morning all
Interesting morning but very messy afternoon. Good to see John take on OIL through the DP...
EURJPY, GBPJPY and CABLE all went a little early for the room so we had to hold off. USDJPY was the only low risk trade out there (first thing) so we shorted that for 20 pips...
Unfortunately we had to be patient as risk of pullbacks were too high.
USDCHF is boxed and has no idea which way to go, so i am staying away from USD related currencies until i get a clear break.
A safe 20 pips isnt bad for the morning session (after very early moves) and lets build on this for the week.
D
Good morning
Wall Street holds 8,000 with GOLD and OIL holding firm above their respective support levels.
Interestingly USDCHF didn’t fall on the back of that suggesting further weakness in the CHF. However the USD did weaken across the board with the DOW rallying. We are still boxed between the Daily MA´s in CABLE, EURUSD & EURGBP and waiting for clear breaks and 123s.
Yes I am being patient and waiting for direction, as it could have been very easy to get caught out for example in EURGBP & GBPCHF on the break with both pulling back very aggressively.
CABLE
Daily trend is down, 4 Hour is up suggesting a lack of direction.
A triangle is forming but again we need to be patient for this to set.
At present 1.6386 is immediate resistance and 1.6031 is immediate support on the 4 hourly chart.
Don’t chase this GBP, lets wait for the break of the S & R levels or the Silver cross for any breakout plays with a 123.
4 Hour chart s key here.
EURUSD
Channeling and oscillating either side of the Daily 20ma. This really could break either way with USDCHF.
Key resistance level at 1.4071 and immediate support in the triangle is the Daily 50ma.
Lower channel is at 1.3829 so again waiting for a clear break of the S & R levels for my trade.
Again the 4 hour chart is key.
USDCHF
Both EURUSD and USDCHF will break and kick start the other USD related currencies.
Let’s not pre-empt this break but wait in stealth mode for it to show us the way.
Top of channel is at 1.09054 and last significant low was 1.0750.
Yes you can try and scalp and guess the direction of the USD or simply wait for the levels to break, making sure your CCI´s are not too oversold or overbought at the time.
The Daily 20MA is flat and could still break both ways.
There is talk of one last drive lower before a big drive higher so let’s be on our toes and wait for the breaks and 123s.
Verdict
· 4 hour charts are key here.
· The short term charts will be oscillating, making them hard to trade off and continually buying of selling into MA´s.
· Lets work off S & R levels and see what pips we can find.
· Wall ST & GOLD etc are boxed in now so again potential lack of direction for the USD.
· Lets be patient and wait for the low risk setups to come our way.
These currencies are so close to breaking...
You should all be set and ready for the breaks. Hope you all received the video i sent you.
See u in the morning.
D
USDCHF
• This beast is teasing and has now broken out of its triangle on the upside
• As we stand this morning the price is resting on the DP and 60min 20ma, however the 15min 50ma is above and we need to be aware of thi
• Purely as a technical play today the safest option would be to wait for the 15min 123 and look for the Golden Cross of the 15min moving averages.
• That would give us the lowest risk to the upside with all MA´s suggesting a strong move higher
• For me 1.0954 is still the key level to break and for any long plays we must look to bank 75% of the position (as I did yesterday afternoon) ahead of this resistance and re open the trade again on the break
CABLE
• The 4hr chart suggests strength is coming back into GBP with weak USD
• The silver cross is setting up so a long opportunity is coming our way
• As it stands this morning the MP at 1.6340 is holding as key resistance and the 60min and 4hr CCI´s are suggesting uptrends
• Let’s look for a break of the MP to 1st resistance at 1.6380 and then further with a rolling sto
EURUSD
• Still heavily boxed in
• With USDCHF trying to tease higher you would imagine EURUSD would make a little push lower and finally break the Daily 50ma
• Lets not preempt this move and wait for a break
• Key support levels are 1.3829 and 1.39.1
• Key resistance levels are 1.4016, 1.4041 & 1.407
• If we see USDCHF make another move higher look lets look for a break below the WP for our 1st entry
GBPCHF
• Keep an eye on this…Look for a pullback to the MP and if holds and the 4hr trigger comes into play, look for a bounce off the 1.7675 region for a long tra
Good morning all.
Great day for you Yen players yesterday. Follishly moved my stops too early but you should have picked up 250 pips from the two trades mentioned. So yesterday was not the doomsday I thought it might be for USDX, having primarily messed about for the day.
The big averages are however getting closer and closer to that all important support line, and we’re starting to behave eve rso slightly by the look of things.
Since double top of last week another attempt at the support then a lower low.
4hr trend 60m trend and 15m trend down with all averages agreeing on short on all three timeframes
Levels to break are 79.84. this is the big one to confirm the slide of the dollar
Then 79.67 and 79.39
Sentiment down and although Dow overbought it showed gusto yesterday by pushing back up though the monthly pivot briefly at 8500.
Strange that USDCHF is looking bullish on the 4hr chart so treading with caution until 79.84 is breached
Not interested in buying dollars although for time-being looks to be oversold against most currencies
Oil
Oil has had quite a few consecutive losing days of late and has created a massive gap between the big 4hr 20 and 50 moving averages between $62 and $65
300 potential pips for 100 risked is not a bad risk to reward ratio and one worth looking at. If dollar does weaken over the coming few days after some possible consolidation then we could look to hold this for a while
60m trend and 4hr trend firmly down so only looking for small play if certain criteria are met
Needs to break 15m 50sma at 61.40 where I will stake 25%
Then needs to break weekly pivot and 4hr 20ema around the 61.50 to 62.00 level
Then will await the break of previous high at 62.20 before adding another 25% to the position
Stop would need to be beyond daily pivot at 60.30
EURGBP
· Showing this on a 4hr chart and looks like a good set up.
· Although the 60m 20 and 50 moving average are quite spread this has potential to fall further despite the daily CCI showing positive.
· 4hr cci has retraced back toward the 0.0 and the trigger is high indicating a short entry around the daily pivot at 0.8572 could be on the cards.
· Would need to surpass yesterdays low at 08450 as well as Friday’s low at 08536 to confirm but likely targets thereafter could be support at 08495, then previous lows at 08432 and 08399
· Stop would need to be ideally situated around the weekly pivot at 08610
· For the safer trader then wait for break of 15m 50sma at 08460
Aside from the general economic data that has been positive thecorporate releases so far so good. 13 releases over the last 24 hours2 worse and 11 better than expectations. Follow that with a decentstock market rally and our market predictably followed suit. Spreads insome bonds significantly tighter the star performer the Gaz 9.62 13sonce again over 100bp tighter in 24 hours with the CDS only 10 tighter.Cash has massively outperformed CDS of late and looks set to continue.If we assume this wall of money argument continues I would expect thenormalisation of curves ie upward sloping again and I would also expectcurves to become straighter ie as relative value traders takingadvantage of curve anomalies. As someone who doesn't buy the greenshoot story I have to concede that the data of late and the earningsrelease are a massive positive not to mention the huge liquidity that isout there at the moment, I am just waiting to see evidence of thisalleged V shaped recovery in the real world. I am off to lose myselfamongst the green shoots of Turnberry, about time we had a Britishwinner of the Open, see you next week.
Mr P......
Hi
Boy am i running late...
Some safe pips made this am on the 123 CABLE trade...Once you have the notes and levels to hand all you need to do is play the breaks. If the CCI´s are in the danger zone then simply play the 123s.
I am off for a couple of days on a stag party in Barcleona. Just bought his outfit for the weekend which is the women´s brazilian netbal team. Should be fun!!!
D