Forecast and levels for EURO - page 25

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.29 07:16

EUR/USD - daily price is testing 200-SMA for the bearish reversal to be started (based on the article)

Daily price broke 55-SMA to below for the ranging market condition: the price is testing 200-SMA for the bearish reversal to be started.

  • "The EURUSD range of 2018 has been a frustration to many traders, however, EURUSD did at long lost make a break through the YTD low at 1.2154, forming a near term base at 1.2050 (200DMA) after breaching the 2017 peak at 1.2093. The question among traders is whether this will be a sign for a bearish trend forming?"
  • "Looking ahead to next week, the key risk event will be the FOMC meeting and as is usually the case on the first Friday of a new month, we will see the release of the latest US NFP report for April, whereby the headline figure is expected to show a reading of 185k, while wage growth is seen remaining at 0.3%. These events will likely be the biggest market moving events of the week and could be the catalyst needed for a bearish set up."
  • "Having broken through the range low of 1.2154, EURUSD looks intent on making a move for 1.2000, near-term support is situated at the new base of 1.2050, which also marks the 200DMA, while EURUSD selling could potentially be curbed by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 1.2033 of the 2017-2018 rise (1.0340-1.2556)."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5



 

EUR/USD - weekly correction; 1.1554/1.1465 are the keys for the bearish reversal

The price on the weekly chart is located above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish market condition: price is breaking support level at 1.2055 to below for the secondary correction to be started with 1.1554/1.1465 nearest weekly beariswh reversal target.

EUR/USD chart by Metatrader 5

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

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...

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

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Guppy MMA

From this post: Guppy MMA means "Guppy multiple moving average". So, Guppy MMA are those averages (there is no one average but all those averages are the Guppy MMA). Some more information from Daryl Guppy himself (including the way how it should be traded) you can find here : http://www.guppytraders.com/gup329.shtml

Forum threads

  • Metatrader 5 versions of indicators ... - the thread with MT5 indicators
  • Guppy Multiple Moving Average (MT4/MT5 indicators/systems)- the key thread
  • Guppy MMA indicators setup as trading system for MT5 (Simple template to trade; indicators: Guppy MMA indicator; Double stochastic; Highs-Lows indicator) - the post to download.
  • 4 Time frame Guppy mma oscillator - the indicator from this post to download (MT4)
  • Guppy MMA of Averages for Metatrader 5 - the indicator from this post to download
  • Guppy Moving Average - old thread with MT4 indicators
  • GMMA Trading System - old development thread for MT4

The articles

CodeBase

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Guppytraders.com - GMMA Guppy Multiple Moving Average
  • www.guppytraders.com
This indicator was developed by Daryl Guppy. It is fully explained in TREND TRADING. Captures the inferred behaviour of traders and investors by using two groups of averages. Uses fractal repetition to identify points of agreement and disagreement which precede significant trend changes. Applied to understand the nature and character of the...
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.11 13:03

EUR/USD - Daily Bearish Breakdown (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to below for the breakdown with the bearish reversal: the price is testing the support level at 1.1822 to below for the daily bearish trend to be continuing.

EURUSD daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The Euro managed to score the largest one-day gain in six weeks against the US Dollar but the dominant trend bias continues to favor on-going weakness. Long-term positioning suggests the single currency marked the resumption of a decade-long down trend with April’s monthly close."
  • "From here, a daily close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.1937 opens the door for a retest of former support in the 1.2055-92 area (50% level, September 8 high). Alternatively, a move below the chart inflection point at 1.1825 paves the way for a challenge of the November 21 low at 1.1713."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.13 06:14

EUR/USD - bouncing near 200-SMA revesal levels (based on the article)

EUR/USD daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Last week's net result was relatively even for EUR/USD, even posting a small reversal candle on the weekly time-frame, but nothing super convincing. Nevertheless, the euro could continue to recovery after the big slide its recently experienced. However, the bounce, given the break of the April trend-line, and more importantly the 2017 high, appears at risk of stalling sooner rather than later and leading to another leg lower. Just ahead is the 200-day MA, but without any price levels in confluence we'll have to wait and see how a touch of the MA will play out."
  • "A rally up to the broken 2017 high and turn down would hold more appeal for refreshing short positions, as not only is this old support considered a new level of resistance, but the move off of last week's low will have been sufficient enough to work off oversold conditions."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.20 10:21

EUR/USD - weekly breakdown to the long-term bearish reversal (based on the article)

EUR/USD weekly Ichimoku chart by MT5

  • "Looking ahead to next week, there is a good amount of support in the vicinity of 11725/670 which could put a larger rebound in place, or at least pause downward momentum for more than a couple of days. Since breaking down last month, wow price reacts to the first big test of sizable support will be critical to the outlook moving forward."
  • "So, while this next week may not hold a big move, price action could be telling moving beyond the next few days. A strong reversal off support will shine light on the notion we could have a tradable low at hand, while a failure to garner any buying interest will suggest another leg lower will be in store."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


 
The next support level for the EURUSD may be the 1.1700 level now that the pair has dropped below the 1.1800 level. In case of a bullish pullback, the 1.1900 level may act as resistance.
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.23 20:07

EUR/USD - global bearish reversal; 1.1554 is the key (based on the article)


  • "Retail trader data shows 58.4% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.4 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Apr 30 when EURUSD traded near 1.21294; price has moved 3.5% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 0.1% higher than yesterday and 9.8% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 16.7% lower than yesterday and 14.5% lower from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EURUSD prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger EURUSD-bearish contrarian trading bias."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.26 12:03

EUR/USD - weekly ranging near 200-SMA bearish reversal (based on the article)

Weekly price broke 55-SMA to below for the ranging market condition: the price is testing 200-SMA for the bearish reversal to be started.

EURUSD Weekly chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The theme of selling EURUSD has shown no signs of abating with the pair now trading around the mid-1.16 area. Last week saw the trendline dating back to January 2017 offer some mild support on Wednesday, however, another bout of Euro weakness saw the trendline support ultimately breached. A close below the trendline could provide a telling sign that another leg lower will be in store for the pair."
  • "As we look ahead to next week, risk events on the calendar for the Euro will come in the form of the Eurozone inflation and the latest US NFP report. In terms price action, the aforementioned breach of the Jan'17 trendline sets up run in on the 2016 high situated at 1.1616, while a weekly low from November 7th at 1.1553 looks to be pivotal, a break below will likely see an extension of the bear run. Resistance on the topside resides at 1.1709, marking the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of the 1.0340-1.2556 rise, alongside 1.1750 (May 24th high)."
  • "EURUSD bulls on the longer term may find comfort in the fact that the Relative Strength Index on the daily chart is in oversold territory, which could indicate that the pair may see a modest reversal in the near-term. However, when the pair has previously been in oversold territory the rebound has been mild at best and followed by another wave of selling."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.03 12:39

EUR/USD - testing last month low at 1.1510 for the weekly bearish reversal (based on the article)

EURUSD weekly chart by Metatrader 5

  • "On the weekly chart, the euro tried to put in a modestly bullish reversal bar, but it's certainly not of the high-conviction variety. Perhaps we will see a bit of early-week weakness in the euro, but as long as last week's low at 11510 holds, then the outlook is neutral at worst, tentatively bullish for a recovery bounce."
  • "A break below support will be reason for abandoning a bullish bias and working with the continued trend lower. It's a bit of a tricky spot down here, but, again, there is a solid floor at the euro's feet to work with in the days ahead. 
    Resistance by way of a few lows from last year will need to be cleared on the daily time-frame to garner top-side momentum; over 11760 should be enough to bolster buyers into pushing EUR/USD higher."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


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