Forecast and levels for GBP - page 11

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.20 09:03

GBP/USD - daily bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels for the bullish trend or to the correction to be continuing (based on the article)

Daily price is located above 100-SMA/200-SMA reversal levels in the bullish area of the chart. The price was bounced from 1.4345 weekly resistance level to below for the secondary correction to be started. For now, the price is on bullish ranging within narrow s/r levels for the bullish trend to be resumed or to the correction to be continuing.

GBPUSD Daily Chart

  • "The British Pound continues to trade-higher after last week’s breakout above the bearish trend-line that had held the highs since January. This morning saw another bullish breakout above the vaulted 1.4000 psychological level after news of a Brexit Transition plan having been agreed upon, and with two very big drivers on the horizon for this week with tomorrow’s CPI and Thursday’s BoE rate decision, the potential remains for high levels of volatility across GBP-pairs. "
  • "It’s only mid-day in the US session on Monday and already this week has seen some interesting volatility around the British Pound. The earlier announcement of an agreement on a Brexit transition plan helped to bring bulls back into the currency, with GBP/USD driving above the psychological level of 1.4000 shortly after the announcement. Thus far, buyers have come-in to show support above that price, indicating potential for bullish continuation. But tomorrow morning brings another noteworthy driver with the release of UK inflation numbers for the month of February; and later in the week we hear from the Bank of England at their first rate decision since the hawkish-shift that transpired at the bank’s Super Thursday last month."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.03.24 13:47

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBPUSD

GBP/USD - "The EU/UK transition period was expected to be formally ratified at the EU Council Summit at the end of the week but on Monday news broke that both sides expected it to be passed, pushing GBP higher. The extra icing on the Sterling cake came on Thursday when the Bank of England announced that all monetary policy settings were unchanged but the voting pattern showed two MPC members voted for an immediate 0.25% rate hike. Looking forward to next week, Sterling should have an easier path with little in the way of UK data to deflect it, while noise around Brexit is expected to be muted after the latest agreement. GBPUSD trades comfortably above all three moving averages, the pair is not in overbought territory, while IG Client Sentiment data shows that traders remain net-short of GBPUSD, a contrarian bullish signal. A break back above this week’s high at 1.4220 should open the way to 1.4280 before re-testing the 1.43460 multi-month high."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.03 12:32

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Markit/CIPS United Kingdom Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and range price movement 

2018-04-03 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Manufacturing PMI]

[GBP - Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report :

  • "The UK manufacturing sector maintained a steady pace of expansion during March. Output growth picked up, although this was offset by slower increases in both new orders and employment. On the price front, rates of inflation in input costs and output charges remained elevated despite easing slightly since February."
  • "The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Purchasing Managers’ Index® (PMI® ) posted 55.1 in March, little-changed from 55.0 in February. The average reading over the opening quarter as a whole (55.1) was the weakest in a year, suggesting that the underlying pace of expansion has been generally slower since the start 2018."

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GBP/USD M1: range price movement by United Kingdom Manufacturing PMI news event 

GBPUSD

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

Well, down


Chart GBPUSD, H1, 2018.04.03 13:44 UTC, RoboForex (CY) Ltd., MetaTrader 4, Real
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.07 18:25

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBPUSD chart by Metatrader 5

GBP/USD - "Going forward, the worry is that the sharp fall in the dominant services sector will drag Q1 GDP down to 0.3%, a touch lower than market expectations of 0.4%. The PMI surveys also showed that March UK GDP was just 0.15% due to the ‘Beast from the East’. While the bad weather has been factored in – next month’s PMIs are expected to jump back – any additional weakness in UK hard data may weigh on GBP ahead of the Bank of England’s expected 0.25% rate hike in May. This week’s UK data releases are minimal, leaving Sterling at the whim of other currencies, especially the USD which is starting to gain strength despite the ongoing US-China trade war and NAFTA negotiations."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.15 10:12

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)

GBPUSD chart by Metatrader 5

GBP/USD - "UK trade weighted Sterling continued its upturn and traded back at highs last seen just after the Brexit vote in June 2016. The upturn was helped by a weaker EUR and to a lesser extent USD with the former impacted by ongoing low inflation in the single market while US President Donald Trump’s rhetoric over potential action in Syria weighed on the greenback. Ahead the monthly look at UK wages, jobs and inflation will once again be closely followed with expectations that real UK wages may turn positive, with higher weekly average earnings driving the move."

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The chart was made on Metatrader 5 using HWAFM tool pattern tool from this post.


 

Pin bar (D1) + FE 61.8


Chart GBPUSD, H4, 2018.04.15 09:55 UTC, RoboForex (CY) Ltd., MetaTrader 4, Real
 
Sergey Golubev:

Nice analysis, I like it.

Szymon Palczynski:

Pin bar (D1) + FE 61.8


Good analysis, you have a very nice indicator too.


That was the end of 5th wave

 
Chris Mukengeshayi:

Nice analysis, I like it.

Good analysis, you have a very nice indicator too.


That was the end of 5th wave

Thanks. GBPJPY Fibo 76.4 + pin bar (context for GBPUSD)


Chart GBPJPY, H4, 2018.04.15 13:52 UTC, RoboForex (CY) Ltd., MetaTrader 4, Real
 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.04.19 15:31

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Great Britain Retail Sales and range price movement 

2018-04-19 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Retail Sales]

  • past data is 0.8%
  • forecast data is -0.5%
  • actual data is -1.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

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From official report :

  • "The month-on-month growth rate fell by 1.2% due to a large fall of 7.4% from petrol sales; a likely consequence of adverse weather conditions, which impacted travel."
  • "In the three months to March 2018 (Quarter 1), the quantity bought in retail sales fell by 0.5% when compared with Quarter 4 (Oct to Dec) 2017, with declines in all sectors except for department stores and non-store retailing."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Great Britain Retail Sales news event 

GBPUSD by MT5

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The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

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