Forecast and levels for GBP - page 7

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.16 10:42

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "The bank of England made clear this week that markets are underestimating the possibility of an interest rate hike this year, despite weak GDP and wage growth numbers. The clear message was sent out by governor Carney after Thursday’s MPC meeting and reinforced by a hawkish speech by BOE policy maker Gert Vlieghe, a one-time dove. Cable duly responded hitting a 15-month high and still has room to move to the upside, especially as the USD remains weak."


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.22 08:10

GBP/USD - intra-day bullish ranging within 1.3652/1.3451 (based on the article)

Intra-day price on H4 chart is located far above 100-SMA/200-SMA reversal levels in the primary bullish area of the chart. The price is on ranging within 1.3652/1.3451 support/resistance levels for the bullish trend to be continuing or for the secondary correction to be started.


  • "Though GBP/USD sliced right through 1.3450 like a hot knife cutting through butter, the bigger wave picture is still intact. Despite the Bank of England and market participants believing a rate hike is coming, the technical picture for GBP/USD is not as rosy. We believe Cable is in a terminal wave at three different degrees of trend. This suggests a reversal may be looming overhead."
  • "The Elliott Wave model we are following points our trend “GPS” to the coordinates of wave v of ((C)) of Y of 4. For those familiar with Elliott Wave, those first three coordinates are ending waves. That means once this move higher exhausts, GBP/USD may stage a top that lasts for several months. We are seeing a cluster of wave relationships appear in the 1.3775 to 1.3918 price zone so a reversal (if one happens) may take place there."


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.23 19:16

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "While political uncertainty and sluggish economic growth might argue for a weaker British Pound, it seems unlikely to lose much of the gain made so far this year against the US Dollar, largely because there is a clear risk that the Bank of England will tighten monetary policy at the November 2 meeting of its rate-setting monetary policy committee."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.28 14:48

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and GBP/USD: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2017-09-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - Final GDP]

  • past data is 3.0%
  • forecast data is 3.0%
  • actual data is 3.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Final GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the second quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.2 percent."

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EUR/USD M15: range price movement by U.S. Final GDP news events


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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Final GDP news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.04 17:27

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Services PMI and range price movement 

2017-10-04 09:30 GMT | [GBP - Services PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Services PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry. 

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From official report :

  • "The headline seasonally adjusted IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI® Business Activity Index posted 53.6 in September, up from an 11-month low of 53.2 in August. Looking at Q3 as a whole, growth has eased slightly since the previous quarter (the index averaged 54.3 in Q2, compared to 53.5 in Q3)."
  • "September data indicated that input cost inflation reached a seven-month high and remained among the strongest seen since early-2011. Higher operating expenses were linked to rising food, energy and fuel bills, alongside increased prices for imported items and greater staff salaries. Sharply rising cost burdens prompted another solid increase in average prices charged by service sector firms."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by UK Services PMI news event 


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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.07 08:33

Weekly GBP/USD Outlook: 2017, October 08 - October 15 (based on the article)

GBP/USD extended its falls amid Brexit uncertainty and unimpressive economic data. Will it head below 1.30? The upcoming week features industrial output, the trade balance and more. Here are the key events for GBP/USD.


  1. BRC Retail Sales Monitor: Monday, 23:00. The British Retail Consortium has shown a rise in sales in the past three months, a positive sign after some worries beforehand. After an advance of 1.3% in August, perhaps we will see a slide in September.
  2. Industrial output: Tuesday, 8:30. While the UK economy leans heavily towards services, the industry still plays an important role. A rise of 0.2% was seen in industrial production back in July. The narrower manufacturing production advanced by 0.5% and is now expected to rise by 0.3%.
  3. Goods Trade Balance: Tuesday, 8:30. Britain suffers from a trade deficit, which has worsened in the past year. A deficit of 11.6 billion was recorded in July. A similar deficit is on the cards now: 11.2 billion.
  4. Construction Output: Tuesday, 8:30. The construction sector is suffering from contraction according to the latest PMI by Markit. It will be interesting to see if we will see another fall after -0.9% in July. A small rise is forecast now: 0.1%.
  5. NIESR GDP Estimate: Tuesday, 12:00. The National Institute of Economic and Social Research provides a running estimate of GDP. In the three months ending in August, it showed a growth rate of 0.4%, better than in previous months. We will now get the figure for June to September, which is exactly Q3.
  6. RICS House Price Balance: Wednesday, 23:01. The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors publishes a monthly diffusion index for the housing sector. It almost fell to the negative ground in July but bounced back to 6%. A small slide to 4% is estimated now.
  7. BOE Credit Conditions Survey: Thursday, 8:30. The Bank of England’s report on credit conditions is watched for rate hike assessments. If conditions are too loose, the BOE has higher incentives to raise rates.
  8. CB Leading Index: Friday, 13:30. This composite index uses 7 indicators, most of them already public. Nevertheless, it is of interest. A drop of 0.1% was recorded in July.

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.07 16:55

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "Then there’s the economic data. In the past week, purchasing managers’ indexes for the UK construction and manufacturing sectors in September were both weaker than expected. However, the PMIs are seen as “soft” data and the week to come sees “hard” – or official – data on industrial production, manufacturing output and trade. If they turn out stronger than predicted, that could revive forecasts, which are already high, that a UK interest rate increase is just around the corner. It has to be said, though, that this all seems rather unlikely and the more probable outcome is a further slide in GBP/USD, particularly if there are any hints from the Bank of England that now may not be the right time to raise rates after all. Note too that IG Client Sentiment data are currently sending out a bearish signal."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


 

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GBP/USD Analysis

Money Monsters, 2017.10.10 02:15

what do you think about it?


 

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GBPUSD TREND

adeyjet4, 2017.10.14 21:56

For some years, GBPUSD have been selling till early this year when it started buying at around the strong support of 1.2035. It have been buying till date. It had bought as high as 1.3655. Last Friday the price closed at 1.3283. The question is, will the trend keep going up? Or it will still test the support at 1.2035 before it finally go up? 
Opinion is needed

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.18 08:38

Trading the News: U.K. Employment Change (Claimant Count Change) (based on the article)

The U.K. added another 180K jobs in July, while the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly narrowed to an annualized 4.3% from 4.4% during the same period. Despite the ongoing improvement in the labor market, Average Weekly Earnings held steady at an annualized 2.1% amid forecasts for a 2.3% print, and signs of subdued wage growth may encourage the Bank of England (BoE) to further delay the normalization cycle especially as Brexit clouds the economic outlook with high uncertainty. The batch of mixed data prints weighed on the British Pound, with GBP/USD pulling back from the 1.3300 handle to end the day at 1.3208. 

What’s Expected:


How To Trade This Event Risk

Bearish GBP Trade: U.K. Household Earnings Remains Subdued

  • Need a red, five-minute candle following the release to favor a short GBP/USD trade.
  • If market reaction favors a bearish Pound position, sell GBP/USD with two separate lots.
  • Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward.
  • Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit.

Bullish GBP Trade: Job, Wage Growth Exceeds Market Forecast

  • Need a green, five-minute GBP/USD candle to favor a long Pound trade.
  • Carry out the same setup as the bearish Sterling position, just in the opposite direction.

GBP/USD Daily


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

GBP/USD M5: range price movement by  U.K. Employment Change news event 


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