Forecast and levels for GBP - page 2

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GBP/USD  go too far 1.28xx. Brexit make me worry about market too hot about President May snap election. I don't want this way, too hard to invest.
 

GBPUSD Monthly & Weekly support and resistance

 

There is a symmetrical tangle appear on GBPUSD 30 M chart.It is mainly considered to be a continuation pattern of previous trend. So watch carefully at the descending R L that the price breaks out of the tangle increase of havey volume.


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.22 10:58

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "The big item on the economic calendar for the U.K. next week is GDP set to be released on Friday morning. The expectation is for 1.9% annualized growth, and this could produce a direct relationship with price action where beats bring on higher prices while a miss elicits selling. More opportunistic for GBP-volatility will be the next Bank of England Super Thursday event on May 12th. This is when the Bank will publish updated inflation forecasts and this is when markets can get a better pulse on just how concerned the bank might be on the topic of rising inflationary forces. There is scant expectation for any movement in rates at that meeting; but given that the last BoE rate decision produced the first vote for a rate hike post-Brexit, the point of interest will be in the details to see as to whether or not any other members of the MPC are growing more comfortable with the idea of tighter policy options in the near-term."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.26 13:12

GBP/USD - daily bullish ranging within 1.2755/1.2904 levels for direction (based on the article)

Daily price is on bullish market condition to be above 200 SMA for the ranging within narrow s/r levels:

  • 1.2755 support level located in the beginning of the secondary correction to be started, and
  • 1.2904 resistance level located in the bullish trend to be resumed.


  • "No change to Cable, which has flat-lined since the breakout. A minor reaction following a breakout indicates a strong market. Additional sideways trade can’t be dismissed but realize that the reaction low after the breakout is 1.2755. That low represents a re-test of the December high (former resistance providing support…which is bullish)."

 

GBPUSD Channel Breakout


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.04.29 17:23

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "The marked slowdown in private-sector consumption, one of the leading drivers of growth and inflation, may prompt the central bank to revisit its economic assumptions as officials warn ‘market-based measures of inflation compensation had remained low; survey-based measures of inflation compensation were little changed on balance.’ Moreover, NFPs may continue to fall short of market expectations as the labor market appears to be at or near full capacity, and a series of dismal developments may fuel the relief rally in GBP/USD as market participants push back bets for the next Fed rate-hike."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.05 11:33

GBP/USD - daily bullish ranging for direction (based on the article)

Daily price is above Ichimoku cloud for the primary bullish market condition with the narrow ranging within the bullish continuation resistance level at 1.2964 and correctional support level at  1.2774.


  • "We looked at the range that had developed in GBP/USD after the aggressive top-side breakout, triggered by PM Theresa May’s surprise announcement of early general elections. And this driver is key – as this happened just two days after the first round of French elections. After market open following the first round of French elections, the risk trade saw a significant shot-higher. Meanwhile, GBP/USD meandered between 1.2500 and 1.2593 but saw no major moves until Theresa May’s surprise announcement the following day."
  • "Given the pair’s inability to set a high above 1.3000 and also given the near-term lower-lows that have begun to show-up with that bull flag formation, and bulls will likely want some additional confirmation before looking to add exposure. This can be done in two ways: by either a) waiting for a longer-term support level to show-up at which point buyer support could open the door to top-side entries with controlled risk. Or by b) letting price action break-above the ‘lower-high’ that substantiates the resistance trend-line of the bull flag, at which point that price could be re-assigned as ‘higher-low’ support with targets set towards 1.3000."

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.06 13:25

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)


GBP/USD - "The Bank of England’s (BoE) interest rate decision on May 11 takes center stage as the central bank also presents its updated quarterly inflation report, and the fresh developments may fuel the relief rally in the GBP/USD exchange rate should a growing number of officials show an increased willingness to normalize monetary policy. With that said, market participants may pay increased attention to the slew of Fed speeches on tap for week ahead as a bulk of the 2017-voting members (Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, New York Fed PresidentWilliam Dudley, Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Philadelphia Fed PresidentPatrick Harker) take to the wires. With Fed Fund Futures now pricing nearly an 80% probability for a June rate-hike, officials may increase their efforts to prepare U.S. households and businesses for higher borrowing-costs, and a slew of hawkish commentary accompanied by a more detailed exit strategy may tame the resilience in Cable especially as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) beings a broader discussions in unwinding the balance sheet."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.05.11 11:02

Trading the News: Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision (based on dailyfx article)

  • "Even though the Bank of England (BoE) appears to be in no rush to lift the benchmark interest rate off of the record-low, the fresh updates to the quarterly inflation report may fuel the relief rally in the British Pound should the central bank highlight an improved outlook for the U.K. economy."
  • "Moreover, the policy statement may reveal a growing rift within the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) following the 8 to 1 split in March, and a greater dissent may heighten the appeal of Sterling as it boosts interest-rate expectations. In contrast, the majority may merely try to buy more time as ‘Brexit’ continues to cloud the outlook for growth & inflation, and more of the same from the BoE may undermine the recent recovery in the GBP/USD as market participants push back bets for a rate-hike."


Bullish GBP Trade: BoE Boosts Economic Forecasts, Reveals Larger Dissent

  • "Need a green, five-minute candle following the rate decision to consider a long GBP/USD trade".
  • "If market reaction favors a bullish Sterling trade, buy GBP/USD with two separate lots".
  • "Set stop at the near-by swing low/reasonable distance from entry; look for at least 1:1 risk-to-reward".
  • "Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met, set reasonable limit".


Bearish GBP Trade: More of the Same From Governor Mark Carney & Co. 

  • "Need a red, five-minute GBP/USD candle to favor a short Sterling position".
  • "Carry out the same setup as the bullish Sterling trade, just in reverse".


Daily price is located above Ichimoku cloud in the bullish area of the chart.

  • If D1 price breaks 1.2987 resistance level to above on close bar so the bullish trend will be continuing.
  • If price breaks 1.2830 to below on close daily bar so the secondary correction within the primary bullish trend will be started.
  • If not so the price will be on bullish ranging within the levels.

GBP/USD M5: range price movement by BOE Official Bank Rate news event


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